路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在周日的选举中以微弱优势获胜，这对巴西极右翼是一次打击，但深刻的政治分歧依然存在。这位重新当选的总统必须应对国内的经济和安全问题，同时还要处理与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普之间的国际紧张关系。
Lula wins Brazil election but faces uphill battle to govern Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's narrow election victory on Sunday has dealt a blow to Brazil's far right, but deep political divisions remain. The newly re-elected president must tackle economic and security concerns at home while navigating international tensions with US President Donald Trump.
“即使你不是卢拉的支持者，这场选举的利害关系也是民主对极右翼。”在里约热内卢海滨的博塔弗戈街区，卡蒂亚在周日庆祝路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦的连任，支持者们纷纷走上街头。“我不能袖手旁观，”她告诉法国24电视台。
“Even if you're not a Lula supporter, what was at stake was democracy versus the far right.”In Rio de Janeiro's beachfront Botafogo neighbourhood, Katia celebrated Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's re-election on Sunday, as supporters took to the streets. “I couldn't just sit on the sidelines,” she told FRANCE 24.
年近81岁的路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦出乎意料地击败了极右翼挑战者弗拉维奥·博索纳罗，得票率为51.7%，对手为48.2%。
At nearly 81, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva defied expectations by defeating far-right challenger Flavio Bolsonaro with 51.7 percent of the vote against 48.2 percent.
在首轮投票中落后之后，卢拉的竞选团队加大了争取年轻选民和尚未决定投票对象的选民的努力。
After trailing in the first round, Lula's campaign stepped up its efforts to reach young and undecided voters.
“首轮排名第二所带来的紧迫感，在第二轮引发了相当大规模的动员，尤其是在社交媒体上，”雷恩大学政治学博士研究员布鲁诺·龙基说，他专门研究极右翼运动，尤其是巴西的极右翼运动。
“The sense of urgency created by coming second in the first round triggered this fairly massive mobilisation in the second round, particularly on social media,” said Bruno Ronchi, a doctoral researcher in political science at the University of Rennes who specialises in far-right movements, particularly in Brazil.
然而，这一结果并不意味着博索纳罗主义的终结——这是围绕前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗及其理念建立的政治运动。
The result does not, however, signal the end of Bolsonarism, the political movement built around former president Jair Bolsonaro and his ideas.
“博索纳罗主义在保守派选民中仍是一支主要政治力量，”龙基说。“弗拉维奥·博索纳罗的结果并不算一场羞辱性的失败。”卢拉现在面临的挑战是，将一场建立在广泛动员基础上的胜利转化为一个可行的执政联盟，同时还要应对国内强大的反对派以及来自华盛顿和邻国的国际压力。“回旋余地很小”卢拉将面临在国会中没有多数席位的执政局面。由博尔索纳罗阵营领导的自由党在本月早些时候举行的立法选举中，赢得了众议院513个席位中的121个，以及参议院81个席位中的28个。
“Bolsonarism remains a major political force among conservative voters,” Ronchi said. “Flavio Bolsonaro's result was not exactly a humiliating defeat.”Lula now faces the challenge of turning a victory built on broad mobilisation into a workable governing coalition, while contending with a powerful opposition at home and international pressure from Washington and neighbouring countries. 'Little room for manoeuvre' Lula is set to govern without a majority in Congress. The Liberal Party, led by the Bolsonaro camp, won 121 of the 513 seats in the lower house and 28 of the 81 seats in the Senate in legislative elections held earlier this month.
“因此，卢拉将不得不与一个比2022年更偏右、更保守的国会共事，”龙基说。
“Lula will therefore have to govern with a Congress that is even further to the right and even more conservative than the one in 2022,” Ronchi said.
龙基表示，总统将不得不与中间派政党合作，尽管这些政党与他的议程一致性有限。
Ronchi said the president would have to work with centrist parties despite their limited alignment with his agenda.
总统将依赖“中央集团”，这是一个中右翼政党联盟，通常以换取政治让步和获取公共资源为条件来支持政府。
The president will depend on the Centrao, a bloc of centre-right parties that typically backs governments in exchange for political concessions and access to public resources.
“我真诚地认为卢拉的施展空间将非常有限，”龙基说，并预测这将是一个“非常温和，甚至可能比他之前的政府更加温和”的政府。
“I genuinely believe Lula will have very little room for manoeuvre,” Ronchi said, predicting a government that would be “very moderate, perhaps even more moderate than his previous governments”.
购买力与公共安全 经济问题将是主要优先事项之一。燃油价格上涨和通胀挤压了家庭预算，而政府面临着在平衡公共支出与福利项目承诺方面的压力。
Purchasing power and public security Economic concerns will be one of the main priorities. Rising fuel prices and inflation have squeezed household budgets, while the government faces pressure to balance public spending with its commitment to welfare programmes.
“购买力无疑是主要问题之一，这在世界许多国家都是如此，”龙基说。
“Purchasing power is undoubtedly one of the main issues, as it is in many countries around the world,” Ronchi said.
他指出，卢拉首个任期内的经济指标相对积极，巴西接近充分就业。
He noted economic indicators during Lula's first term had been relatively positive, with Brazil close to full employment.
卢拉还必须应对体制稳定性方面的质疑。弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗呼吁取消大选第二轮结果，理由是关于延长投票时间的请求裁决出现延迟。
Lula must also contend with questions over institutional stability. Flavio Bolsonaro has called for the election's second round to be annulled, citing delays in decisions over requests to extend voting hours.
他将此与雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗在上届大选后拒绝承认败选相提并论。2023年1月8日，即卢拉就职前一周，一群博尔索纳罗的支持者冲击了巴西利亚的国会、最高法院和总统府，试图推翻政府。
He compared it with Jair Bolsonaro's refusal to accept his defeat after the last elections. On January 8, 2023, just a week before Lula took office, a mob of Bolsonaro's supporters stormed Congress, the Supreme Court and the presidential palace in Brasilia, seeking to overthrow the government.
公共安全预计也将继续是一个有争议的问题。因被对手指责在打击犯罪上过于软弱，卢拉将面临压力，必须打击控制数座城市领地的犯罪集团和民兵组织。
Public security is also expected to remain a contentious issue. Accused by his opponents of being too soft on crime, Lula will face pressure to tackle criminal groups and militias that control territory in several cities.
竞选期间，他表示将支持针对极其恶劣的罪行，将刑事责任年龄从18岁降至16岁，而政治右派则希望将其降至14岁。特朗普的制衡力量？
During the campaign, he said he would support lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 for heinous crimes, while the political right wants to reduce it to 14. A counterweight to Trump?
卢拉的胜利也具有超越巴西的意义。这个国家重新选出一位左翼领导人，对整个拉丁美洲与美国总统特朗普结盟的右翼政府日益增长的影响力构成了挑战。
Lula's victory also carries implications beyond Brazil. The country's re-election of a left-wing leader challenges the growing influence of right-wing governments across Latin America that have aligned themselves with US President Donald Trump.
去年，特朗普以针对其盟友博尔索纳罗的法律诉讼为由，对巴西征收关税，随后今年又对部分产品加征25%关税。卢拉竞选时主张在面对美国施压时捍卫巴西主权。
Trump imposed tariffs on Brazil last year in retaliation for legal proceedings against his ally Jair Bolsonaro, followed by an additional 25% tariff on some products this year. Lula campaigned on defending Brazilian sovereignty in the face of US pressure.
龙基表示，卢拉的胜利向该地区其他国家发出了一个信号，那里的政治变动常被描绘为左右翼之间不可避免的摆动。“此次选举表明，这些趋势并非不可避免，”他说。
Ronchi said Lula's victory sent a message to other countries in the region, where political shifts are often portrayed as an inevitable swing between left and right. “This election shows that these trends are not inevitable,” he said.
他指出来自华盛顿的压力，包括美国国务卿鲁比奥为巩固美国在美洲更强势的影响力所做的努力。
He pointed to pressure from Washington, including efforts by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to secure a stronger American sphere of influence across the Americas.
“这一胜利表明，存在遏制美国在整个大陆彰显其权力野心的途径，”龙基说。“这也证明左翼运动能够动员并重整旗鼓。”但同样，卢拉作为制衡特朗普力量的能力，将取决于他在国内的施展空间。“一道屏障”对于巴黎第八大学当代史教授、法国地缘政治研究所研究实验室主任阿梅勒·昂代尔而言，卢拉的胜利具有超越巴西的意义。
“This victory shows that there are ways to counter this American ambition to assert its power across the continent,” Ronchi said. “It also demonstrates that left-wing movements can mobilise and reorganise themselves.”But there again Lula's ability to act as a counterweight to Trump will depend on his room for manoeuvre at home. ‘A bulwark’For Armelle Enders, a professor of contemporary history at Paris 8 University and director of the research laboratory at the French Institute of Geopolitics, Lula's victory has significance beyond Brazil.
“这是全世界民主派的胜利，”她对法新社（FRANCE 24）表示。“他代表了一道防线，这非常重要。” 罗恩基表示，选举结果反映了广泛的动员，旨在对抗博尔索纳主义对民主制度构成的风险，而非该运动本身的消亡。
“This is a victory for democrats around the world,” she told FRANCE 24. “He represents a bulwark and that is very important.”Ronchi said the election results reflected a broad mobilisation against the risks posed by Bolsonarism to democratic institutions, rather than the disappearance of the movement itself.
“也出现了一种广泛的民主阵线汇聚在一起，凸显了对博尔索纳主义的不信任，以及其在背离民主制度方面所构成的风险，”他说。对卡蒂娅而言，政治紧张局势重燃的前景仍是一大担忧。
“There was also a kind of broad democratic front that came together, highlighting the distrust of Bolsonarism and the risks it poses in terms of breaking with democratic institutions,” he said. For Katia, the prospect of renewed political tensions remains a concern.
“未来几天将非常紧张。强度将不亚于上一次大选（编者注：2022年），当时他们企图发动政变。博尔索纳罗不会接受输掉选举，”她对法新社（FRANCE 24）表示。
“The coming days are going to be intense. It will be just as intense as the last election [in 2022, editor's note], when they attempted a coup. And Bolsonaro is not going to accept having lost the election,” she told FRANCE 24.
“我认为我们什么都要有心理准备。这些人绝对不民主。正在酝酿着什么。” 卢拉赢得了新一届任期，但他能否治理国家，将取决于他能否弥合巴西的政治分歧，并兑现选民的诉求。
“I think we can expect anything from them. These are people who are absolutely not democratic. Something is brewing.”Lula has won another term, but his ability to govern will depend on whether he can bridge Brazil's political divide and deliver on voters' concerns.