伊兹梅尔，乌克兰/雅加达 -- 黑海商船遭受的持续无人机袭击正在冲击乌克兰向亚洲的粮食运输，印尼和孟加拉国买家报告称，自夏季以来小麦供应几乎停摆，导致价格大幅上涨。
IZMAIL, Ukraine/JAKARTA -- Incessant drone attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea are hitting Ukrainian grain shipments to Asia, with Indonesian and Bangladeshi buyers reporting wheat supplies have virtually stopped since the summer, pushing prices substantially higher.
自6月下旬以来，俄罗斯加大了对黑海商船的致命打击力度。仅10月就发生了至少六起袭击，造成数十人死亡。北约本周表示，将向这片重要的东西向海上航线派遣更多巡逻机、雷达系统和无人机。
Russia has intensified deadly strikes on commercial ships in the Black Sea since late June. In October alone, there have been at least six attacks that have killed dozens. NATO said this week it would send more patrol aircraft, radar systems and drones to the inland sea, an important east-west maritime route.
乌克兰在黑海拥有三个港口——敖德萨、乔尔诺莫尔斯克和皮夫杰内——它们是乌克兰粮食出口的关键门户，粮食出口约占其经济的10%。
Ukraine has three ports on the Black Sea -- Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi -- that are crucial gateways for its grain exports that contribute around 10% to its economy.
亚洲国家是乌克兰粮食的主要买家。根据乌克兰农业咨询公司Barva Invest的数据，在2025-2026财年，印尼、孟加拉国、越南和马来西亚购买了乌克兰小麦出口总量的20.7%。
Asian countries are major buyers of Ukrainian grain. Over fiscal 2025-2026, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Malaysia bought 20.7% of Ukraine's wheat exports, according to figures from Ukrainian agricultural consultancy Barva Invest.
其中，印尼是最大客户，但仅采购软质小麦。印尼面粉厂协会表示，今年前八个月，乌克兰供应了印尼小麦总进口量的近四分之一。随着这些供应如今陷入停顿，价格飙升了30.9%，达到每蒲式耳6.60美元。位于黑海敖德萨港的地标性敖德萨大酒店在无人机袭击中受损。
Among them, Indonesia is the biggest client but buys only soft wheat. Ukraine supplied nearly a quarter of its total imports in the first eight months of this year, said the Indonesian Flour Mills Association. With those supplies now ground to a halt, prices have surged 30.9% to $6.60 per bushel. The landmark Hotel Odesa, at the port of Odesa on the Black Sea, suffered damage from drone attacks.
在孟加拉国，拥有广泛食品和动物饲料业务的全球企业集团TK Group表示，该国用于制粉和其他用途的进口粮食中，约70%来自乌克兰和俄罗斯。
In Bangladesh, global conglomerate TK Group, which has an extensive food and animal feed business, said about 70% of grain the country imports for flour production and other uses come from Ukraine and Russia.
“过去一个月，到货量不足平时的1%”，TK Group财务与运营总监Shafiul Taslim表示。他解释说，孟加拉国根据价格从俄罗斯和乌克兰各采购一半粮食。
"Over the past month, less than 1% of the usual volume has arrived," said Shafiul Taslim, director of finance and operations at TK Group. He explained that Bangladesh sources 50-50 of grains from Russia and Ukraine, depending on price.
乌克兰粮食出口商Unicorns的董事奥列克桑德尔·希日尼亚克（Oleksandr Khyzhniak）向《日经亚洲》表示，该公司已暂停使用小型海运船只进行运输，直到黑海的安全状况得到改善，并正转而通过多瑙河上的驳船将粮食运往罗马尼亚的康斯坦察港。
Oleksandr Khyzhniak, director of Ukrainian grain exporter Unicorns, told Nikkei Asia that the company has suspended shipments on smaller seagoing vessels until security in the Black Sea improved and is switching to transporting grain by barges along the Danube River to Romania's port of Constanta.
“对我们来说，这意味着利润率降低、在康斯坦察卸货期间的等待时间增加，以及货物周转速度变慢，”希日尼亚克说。
"For us, this means lower margins, waiting time during unloading in Constanta and slower turnover of goods," Khyzhniak said.
出口商不再经由黑海航行，而是将粮食运往多瑙河上的乌克兰内陆港口伊兹梅尔或雷尼。随后，这些货物会通过小型船只或驳船，沿河流绕道运往罗马尼亚的康斯坦察港，粮食最终在那里被装载到大型船舶上。
Instead of sailing through the Black Sea, exporters are delivering grains to the inland Ukrainian ports of Izmail or Reni on the Danube. Those shipments are then sent along the river further inland via a circuitous route on smaller vessels or barges to Romania's Constanta port where the grains are finally loaded onto larger ships.
从这里出发，它们会沿着罗马尼亚和保加利亚的海岸线航行，但仍面临俄罗斯的轰炸威胁。如果能顺利通过，它们将抵达土耳其海域，并继续沿传统航线穿过土耳其进入地中海。前往亚洲的船只随后会穿过苏伊士运河、红海和印度洋。
From here, they cling along the Romanian and Bulgarian coasts where they still face Russian bombardment. If they make it beyond, they reach Turkish waters and continue on the traditional route through Turkey and into the Mediterranean Sea. Ships bound for Asia then sail through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
上图：多瑙河上的伊兹梅尔港，注定不幸的“罗亚德·马马多夫”号（Royad Mammadov）在最后一次航行前就是在这里装载货物的。
ABOVE: The port of Izmail on the Danube River is where the doomed Royad Mammadov was loaded before its final voyage.
多瑙河内陆航线的旅程不仅更长，而且让托运人感到头疼，因为只有小型船只才能通过这条河流。政府数据显示，9月份乌克兰的实际出口量仅为其潜在出口能力的46%。
The journeys on the inland Danube route are not just longer, but also a pain for shippers because only small vessels can traverse the river. In September, Ukraine managed to export only 46% of the volume it could potentially have shipped, government figures show.
总部位于切尔诺莫斯克的港口运营商及粮食出口物流公司Olir Resources的首席执行官伊万·尼亚基（Ivan Niyakiy）表示，从伊兹梅尔到康斯坦察的运费在9月份飙升至每公吨约30欧元（约合33.69美元），而几个月前仅为10欧元。
Ivan Niyakiy, CEO of Olir Resources, a major port operator and grain export logistics company based in Chornomorsk, said September freight from Izmail to Constanta jumped to around 30 euros ($33.69) per metric ton from just 10 euros a few months earlier.
运费的上涨被转嫁给了买家。塔斯利姆（Taslim）表示，孟加拉国目前支付的小麦运费已超过每吨300美元，而不久前约为200美元。由于战争结束遥遥无期，乌克兰企业对此感到悲观。
This increase in freight price is passed down to buyers. Taslim said Bangladesh is now paying freight of over $300 per ton of wheat, up from of around $200 not long ago. With the war's end nowhere in sight, Ukrainian companies are downbeat.
“我预计未来两到三个月情况会进一步恶化，这可能导致乌克兰谷物在亚洲市场的竞争力日益下降，并迫使买家转向其他供应商，”乌克兰物流公司TEUS集团首席执行官德米特罗·卡扎宁（Dmytro Kazanin）表示。
"I expect the situation to deteriorate further over the next two to three months, potentially making Ukrainian grain increasingly uncompetitive in Asian markets and forcing buyers to switch to alternative suppliers," said Dmytro Kazanin, CEO of TEUS Group, a Ukrainian logistics company.
据印度尼西亚面粉厂协会执行董事拉特娜·萨里·洛皮斯（Ratna Sari Loppies）称，印尼买家已经在用来自澳大利亚、美国、阿根廷和保加利亚的供应品替代乌克兰小麦。由于利润空间不断受到挤压，面粉生产商不得不将部分上涨的成本转嫁出去。
Indonesian buyers are already replacing Ukrainian wheat with supplies from Australia, the U.S., Argentina and Bulgaria, according to Ratna Sari Loppies, executive director of Indonesian Flour Mills Association. Facing eroding margins, flour producers have had to pass on some of the higher prices.
“然而，考虑到国内消费者的购买力和负担能力限制，他们无法大幅度或立即提高价格，”洛皮斯说。
"However, they cannot raise prices sharply or immediately, given domestic consumers' purchasing power and affordability constraints," Loppies said.
事实上，据印尼未来资产证券（Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia）的一份报告显示，印尼消费品公司至少在2027年第一季度之前，利润空间都将面临挤压。
Indeed, Indonesian consumer goods companies can expect margins to be squeezed at least until the first quarter of 2027, according to a report by Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia.
乌克兰多瑙河港口的一个谷物仓库。一位孟加拉国买家表示，乌克兰小麦的质量优于保加利亚和罗马尼亚的版本。（图片由TEUS提供）塔斯利姆（Taslim）表示，那些转向从罗马尼亚和保加利亚采购“质量较低小麦”的孟加拉国买家发现，由于这些国家的需求激增，他们很难获得船运舱位。
A grain warehouse at a Ukrainian Danube port. A Bangladeshi buyer says Ukrainian wheat is of better quality than Bulgarian and Romanian versions. (Courtesy of TEUS) Taslim said Bangladeshi buyers who have switched to supplies of "lower-quality wheat" from Romania and Bulgaria are finding it hard to secure shipping slots given that demand has surged in those countries. "There are no available shipping slots before December, which creates further challenges for us," he said, adding the only thing the government could do to help is to facilitate imports from India.
“12月之前没有可用的船运舱位，这给我们带来了进一步的挑战，”他说，并补充道政府唯一能提供的帮助就是促进从印度进口。
Seeking alternatives, TEUS announced in September that it had organized the transport of 72 40-foot containers of wheat by rail from Dnipro in Ukraine to Gdansk in Poland for onward shipment by sea to Jakarta.
为了寻求替代方案，TEUS在9月宣布，已组织将72个40英尺集装箱的小麦通过铁路从乌克兰第聂伯罗运往波兰格但斯克，再通过海运前往雅加达。
The company estimates it would take up to three weeks by rail and about 35 days at sea via this option.
该公司估计，这一方案通过铁路运输需要长达三周时间，海上运输则需约35天。但是，尽管这条路线避开了乌克兰的黑海港口，它却无法取代大规模的散货船出口。
But, while this route avoids Ukraine's Black Sea ports, it cannot replace large-scale bulk-carrier exports. "The question the market is asking is gradually shifting from 'How much does freight cost?' to 'Who is willing to provide a ship at all, and on what terms?'"
“市场目前提出的问题正逐渐从‘运费是多少？’转变为‘到底有谁愿意提供船只，以及条件是什么？’”卡扎宁说道。
Kazanin said.
卡扎宁呼应了Unicorns公司董事的观点，并警告称，船东们可能会完全退出黑海航线。
Echoing Unicorns' director, Kazanin warned that shipowners may withdraw from Black Sea voyages entirely.