约翰内斯堡10月26日电 - 南非选民将于11月4日参加地方选举，在选民对糟糕的服务提供、不稳定地方政府联盟以及不断上涨的生活成本感到沮丧的背景下投下选票。
JOHANNESBURG, Oct 26 - South Africans vote in municipal elections on November 4 amid voter frustration over poor service delivery, unstable local government coalitions and rising costs.
选举每五年举行一次，将成为衡量2029年全国大选前政治格局的重要晴雨表，纳尔逊·曼德拉曾领导的前解放运动组织非洲人国民大会（非国大）的支持率仍在不断遭到侵蚀。以下是几个关键的兵家必争大都市：约翰内斯堡：终极大奖。这座非洲最富有的城市自2021年地方选举以来已经历了七任市长，一连串的联合政府均宣告瓦解。
Held every five years, the elections will be an important gauge of the political landscape ahead of the 2029 national vote, with support for the African National Congress (ANC), Nelson Mandela's former liberation movement, continuing to erode. Here are the key battleground metros: JOHANNESBURG: THE PRIZE Africa's richest city has churned through seven mayors since the 2021 local elections as successive coalition governments have unravelled.
亲商的民主联盟（民盟）通过在竞争对手前几个月宣布前开普敦市长兼西开普省省长海伦·齐勒为其市长候选人，占据了早期优势。这位75岁的政治老将开展了一场充满活力的竞选活动，重点关注日益恶化的基础设施和糟糕的服务提供。
The pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) gained an early advantage by naming former Cape Town mayor and Western Cape premier Helen Zille as its mayoral candidate months ahead of its rivals. The 75-year-old political veteran has run an energetic campaign focused on deteriorating infrastructure and poor service delivery.
近期民调显示，民主联盟的支持率在30%以上，非国大在20%以上，这增加了两党组建联合政府的可能性。自2024年非国大失去议会多数席位以来，这两个政党一直在全国范围内共同执政。不过，两党可能首先寻求与小党达成协议，而不是彼此分享权力。
Recent polls put the DA above 30% and the ANC above 20%, raising the possibility of a coalition between the two parties, which have governed together nationally since the ANC lost its parliamentary majority in 2024. Both parties could first seek deals with smaller parties rather than share power.
茨瓦内：中间党派“行动南非”成造王者。茨瓦内是行政首都比勒陀利亚的所在地，它突显了小党在南非碎片化地方政治中的重要性。
TSHWANE: ACTIONSA THE KINGMAKER Tshwane, home to the administrative capital Pretoria, underscores the importance of smaller parties in South Africa's fragmented municipal politics.
非国大曾执政该大都市，直到2016年民主联盟夺取该地，这对执政党而言是一次重大城市失利。此后，联合政治被证明是不稳定的，民主联盟在2024年失去了权力，此前其执政伙伴“行动南非”支持了一项针对其市长的由非国大领导的不信任动议。
The ANC governed the metro until 2016, when the DA captured it in a major urban defeat for the ruling party. Coalition politics subsequently proved volatile, and the DA lost power in 2024 after its coalition partner ActionSA backed an ANC-led no-confidence motion against its mayor.
此后，茨瓦内一直由“行动南非”领导的多党联盟统治。该党由前约翰内斯堡市长赫尔曼·马沙巴于2020年创立，是一个中间偏右政党，其竞选主张是反腐败和对移民采取强硬路线。
Tshwane has since been governed by a multi-party coalition led by ActionSA. The party, founded in 2020 by former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba, is a centre-right party that campaigns on anti-corruption and a hard line on immigration.
开普敦：民主联盟的堡垒。民主联盟极受青睐，有望保住开普敦。该党自2006年以来一直治理该市，并自2011年起在当地拥有绝对多数席位。
CAPE TOWN: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE BASTION The DA is heavily favoured to retain Cape Town, which it has governed since 2006 and where it has held an outright majority since 2011.
民调显示该党的支持率应能保持在50%以上，不过一些分析人士预计，随着选民应对飙升的房价和挥之不去的帮派暴力，竞争将会更加激烈。
Polls suggest the party should remain above 50%, though some analysts expect a tighter contest as voters grapple with soaring property prices and persistent gang violence.
民主联盟也将目光投向了纳尔逊·曼德拉湾。这是南非最动荡的联合大都市之一，目前由一个非国大领导的联盟执政。
The DA is also targeting Nelson Mandela Bay, one of South Africa's most turbulent coalition metros and currently governed by an ANC-led coalition.
埃特克维尼：祖马这个变数。夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省的经济枢纽（包括港口城市德班）可能会给非国大带来本次选举中最沉重的打击之一，前总统雅各布·祖马的“民族之矛”党（MKP）正威胁着要取代非国大。
ETHEKWINI: ZUMA WILDCARD The economic hub of KwaZulu-Natal province, which includes the port city of Durban, could deliver one of the election's biggest blows to the ANC, with former president Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) threatening to displace it.
2023年与非国大彻底决裂后，祖马转而支持“民族之矛”党。民调显示该党可能赢得40%至50%的选票，而非国大的支持率可能会降至百分之十几。“民族之矛”党的崛起助推了非国大在2024年全国大选中遭遇的失利。
Zuma backed MKP after his bitter split with the ANC in 2023. Polls suggest the party could win 40% to 50% of the vote, while ANC support could fall into the low teens. MKP's rise helped drive the ANC's losses in the 2024 national election.
埃库鲁莱尼：腐败考验。埃库鲁莱尼拥有约翰内斯堡的奥利弗·坦博国际机场，这可能会提供非国大在豪滕省衰落的又一个衡量标准，该省选民对腐败和犯罪表示担忧。
EKURHULENI: CORRUPTION TEST Ekurhuleni, home to Johannesburg's OR Tambo International Airport, could provide another measure of the ANC's decline in Gauteng Province, where voters have cited concerns over corruption and crime.
民调显示，非国大的支持率可能会从2021年的38%降至约25%，与民主联盟势均力敌。
Polls suggest ANC support could fall from 38% in 2021 to about 25%, leaving it neck-and-neck with the DA.
水牛城和曼加温：非国大的最后堡垒。水牛城（包括东开普省的库戈姆波城）以及自由州省布隆方内特所在的曼加温，依然是非国大最牢固的大都市堡垒，这使得它们成为检验该党城市支持率流失程度的重要试金石。
BUFFALO CITY AND MANGAUNG: LAST STRONGHOLDS OF THE ANC Buffalo City, which includes KuGompo City in Eastern Cape province, and Mangaung, home to Bloemfontein in Free State province, remain the ANC's strongest metropolitan bastions, making them important tests of how far the party's urban support has eroded.
在对前解放运动根深蒂固的忠诚帮助下，非国大在2021年分别赢得了水牛城59%和曼加温51%的选票。
The ANC won 59% in Buffalo City and 51% in Mangaung in 2021, helped by deep-rooted loyalty to the former liberation movement.