海伦·齐勒正在竞选约翰内斯堡市长，作为竞选活动的一部分，她曾在一个积满水的坑洞里浮潜。她曾在停电导致红绿灯熄灭时指挥交通。她曾在被水淹没的街道上划水前行。这位来自南非第二大党民主联盟（DA）的候选人还曾驾驶一辆旧宝马“漂移”——这是该市黑人城镇中流行的一项活动。这位75岁的祖母还曾走上打碟台（见图），被称为“DJ Gogo”。
AS PART OF her campaign to become mayor of Johannesburg, Helen Zille has snorkelled in a water-filled pothole. She has directed cars when power cuts turned off traffic lights. She has paddled down a flooded street. The candidate from the Democratic Alliance (DA), South Africa’s second-biggest party, has taken an old BMW “spinning”, a popular pursuit in the city’s black townships. The 75-year-old grandmother has stepped up to a turntable (pictured) and been dubbed “DJ Gogo”.
这些举动都是有目的的。在11月4日地方选举之前，齐勒女士希望凸显这座商业之都在非洲人国民大会（ANC）领导的联合政府治下的衰败。民调显示，这个曾经占据主导地位的政党将迎来自1994年白人统治结束以来在全国选举中的最差表现。与此同时，齐勒女士可能很快成为种族隔离结束后的约翰内斯堡首位白人市长。这样的结果将凸显纳尔逊·曼德拉所属政党的衰落——或许还预示着一种不那么以种族划线的政治的开端。
These were stunts with a purpose. Ahead of local elections on November 4th Ms Zille wants to highlight the decay of the commercial capital under a coalition led by the African National Congress (ANC). Polls suggest the once hegemonic party will have its worst showing in a nationwide election since the end of white rule in 1994. Meanwhile Ms Zille could soon be the first white mayor of post-apartheid Johannesburg. Such a result would underline the decline of the party of Nelson Mandela—and perhaps point to the beginnings of a less racialised politics.
非国大的支持率已经下滑了20年。但它正走向一个新的低点。过去六个月的民调平均值显示，非国大支持率为32%，民主联盟为27%。五年前，非国大以46%对22%的优势战胜民主联盟。民主联盟自己的民调认为，它可能在南非八个最大城市中的大多数成为最大政党。
The ANC has been losing support for 20 years. But it is headed for a new low. An average of opinion polls in the past six months has the ANC at 32%, the DA at 27%. Five years ago the ANC won 46% to the DA’s 22%. The DA’s own polling reckons it could become the largest party in most of South Africa’s eight largest cities.
在南非约80%的黑人人口中，非国大仍是最受欢迎的政党。它受惠于残留的忠诚度，因为它在结束种族隔离制度中发挥了作用，拥有庇护派发体系，且在执政初期确实改善了国家状况。但南非人对其贪腐和无法维持基本服务的表现日益厌倦。自诩为“世界级非洲城市”的约翰内斯堡便是最显著的例子。该市供应的大宗水资源近半从未获得付费，因被盗用或从管道泄漏流失。其支出超过税费收入，却始终无法修缮基础设施。修复基础设施积压问题的成本约为其资本预算的25倍。
Among the roughly 80% of the South African population that is black, the ANC remains the most popular party. It benefits from residual loyalty because of its role in ending apartheid, its patronage and because it genuinely improved the country during its early years in office. But South Africans are increasingly tired of its graft and failure to run basic services. Johannesburg, which sells itself as a “world-class African city”, is the most glaring example. Nearly half of the bulk water the city supplies is never paid for because it is stolen or leaks out of pipes. It spends more money than it raises in taxes and fees and yet it consistently fails to repair infrastructure. The cost to fix its infrastructure backlog is roughly 25 times its capital budget.
“这是我们挽救约翰内斯堡的最后机会，”齐勒女士主张道。基于她2006至2009年执政开普敦的经验，她承诺控制财政、按才干任命城市机构负责人并铲除腐败。
“This is our last chance to save Johannesburg,” argues Ms Zille. Based on her experience running Cape Town from 2006 to 2009, she pledges to get a grip on the finances, appoint leaders to city agencies on merit and root out corruption.
她能否获得机会将取决于组建联盟的能力。民主联盟通常受益于“差异化投票率”：其核心基本盘——白人及其他少数族裔——比黑人选民更倾向于投票。但由于黑人约占约翰内斯堡人口的四分之三，她也需要获得足够多的黑人选票。
Whether she will get the chance will depend on her ability to form a coalition. The DA usually benefits from “differential turnout”: its core base among whites and other minorities is more likely to vote than black voters are. But since black Joburgers make up around three-quarters of the city, she will need enough of their votes, too.
她能获得这些选票吗？大多数前非国大支持者要么不投票，要么选择除民主联盟以外的反对党。由前总统祖马领导的“民族之矛党”（MK）以祖鲁族——最大族群——为目标选民。经济自由战士党（EFF）是另一个黑人民族主义政党。其他城市选民被行动党（ActionSA）吸引，其吸引力部分源于利用对非法移民的担忧。“一个没有秩序的国家正走向灾难，”约翰内斯堡选民萨内莱·巴加蒂说道。
Will she get them? Most former ANC supporters either do not vote or opt for an opposition party other than the DA. UmKhonto we Sizwe (MK), led by Jacob Zuma, a former president, targets Zulus, the largest ethnic group. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) is another black-nationalist party. Other urban voters are attracted by ActionSA, whose appeal is based partly on its ability to exploit concerns about illegal immigration. “A country without order is headed for disaster,” says Sanele Bhagathi, a voter from Johannesburg.
许多黑人南非人对民主联盟（DA）抱有好奇，但一直不愿支持它，因为无论公平与否，民主联盟的品牌形象是一个“白人政党”。怀疑者将开普敦视为警示：该市管理良好，但其郊区大多是非白人聚居且景象凄凉。“我不相信该党足够关心[这种不平等]，但他们应该关心，”约翰内斯堡的另一位选民塔博·恩图利（Thabo Nthuli）说。
Many black South Africans are DA-curious but have resisted it because, fairly or unfairly, the DA’s brand is that of a “white party”. Sceptics see Cape Town, which is well run but has bleak mostly non-white outskirts, as a reason for caution. “I don’t believe the party cares enough about [that inequality], and they should,” says Thabo Nthuli, another voter in Johannesburg.
然而，在国家层面与非国大（ANC）组建联合政府，有助于消除民主联盟的负面形象，并重申了其治理能力的声誉。当年的白人统治时期，齐勒女士作为一名记者曾揭露该政权的暴行，如今反对派很难再指责齐勒女士等人想要恢复种族隔离——这是非国大的一贯说辞。
Yet governing in coalition with the ANC at a national level has helped detoxify the DA’s image and reaffirmed its reputation for competence. It is hard for opponents to suggest that the likes of Ms Zille want to bring back apartheid—a trope of the ANC—when as a journalist under white rule she exposed the regime’s abuses.
对许多黑人选民而言，开普敦是善治的典范。“我以前从未遇到过这些问题或失职，”曼迪萨·马菲萨（Mandisa Maphisa）说，她从开普敦搬到了约翰内斯堡。“我将投票给民主联盟，以获得有效的服务交付，该党本身已证明这是可能的。”民主联盟认为，其在黑人选民中的得票率将从全国约 4.5% 翻倍至 9%，这意味着它可能成为黑人南非人中第三受欢迎的政党。齐勒女士的得票率可能会更高，尽管她可能无法达到 40% 的总得票率目标。
For many black voters Cape Town is a model of good governance. “I never used to have these problems or these failures,” says Mandisa Maphisa, who moved to Johannesburg from there. “I’ll be voting for the DA for effective service delivery that the party itself has proven is possible.”The DA thinks it will double its share of the black vote, from around 4.5% to 9% nationally, meaning it could be the third-most popular party among black South Africans. Ms Zille will probably win a higher share, though she may not meet her target of 40% of the overall vote.
选民远离非国大表明，政治开始追上社会现实。大多数南非人表示，他们不介意邻居、女婿或女婿、乃至总统的种族。据四月发布的一项调查，70% 的受访者同意：政客利用种族和殖民主义作为自己失败的借口。
The shift away from the ANC suggests that politics is beginning to catch up with society. Most South Africans say they do not mind the race of their neighbour, their sons- or daughters-in-law or the president. In a survey published in April, 70% agreed that politicians use race and colonialism as an excuse for their own failures.
日益多元的中产阶级也在塑造政治。开普敦大学研究机构自由研究所指出，2012年，月收入至少7.5万兰特（4500美元）的黑人家庭占29%。到2024年，这一比例已赶上白人（41%）。2001年至2022年间，跨种族婚姻的比例从1%上升到11%。与2000年代相比，更多南非人与其他种族的人交往。
An increasingly diverse middle class shapes politics, too. In 2012 black households made up 29% of those with at least 75,000 rand ($4,500) in monthly income, notes the Liberty Institute, a research group at the University of Cape Town. By 2024 they had caught up with whites (41%). The share of multiracial marriages increased from 1% to 11% between 2001 and 2022. More South Africans socialise with people of other races than in the 2000s.
齐勒女士最终能否当选市长尚无保证。但学者威廉·古梅德表示，如果她能赢得足够多的黑人选民支持，在约翰内斯堡组建联合政府，那将划下“一条底线”。“为了得到我们想要的南非，我们需要更多黑人跨越种族障碍。”■
There is no guarantee that Ms Zille will end up as mayor. But if she can win over enough black voters to form a coalition in Johannesburg, that will draw “a line in the sand”, says William Gumede, an academic. “To get the South Africa we want, we need more blacks to cross the racial barrier.” ■