
全球科技股摇摇欲坠之际,中国科技股已率先崩盘,因对人工智能需求的担忧以及对中国出口的限制,导致高估值体系瓦解。
While global tech stocks teeter, in China they have already crashed as lofty valuations collapse under worries about AI demand and curbs on Chinese exports.
这场崩盘让内地科创50指数(.STAR50)——该指数汇集了人工智能和半导体龙头企业——在不足四个月内暴跌40%,市值蒸发约4800亿美元,这对动荡的全球市场是不祥之兆,也给中国引导储蓄者入市以资助人工智能繁荣的努力泼了一盆冷水。
The meltdown, tanking the mainland STAR50 index (.STAR50) of AI and semiconductor leaders by 40% in less than four months and vaporising some $480 billion in market value, is an ill omen for wobbly world markets and a dampener on China's efforts at encouraging its savers into stocks to fund the AI boom.
这也急刹车般终结了持续两年的反弹行情——彼时经济刺激承诺推动股价飙升,并叫停了北京打破长期“牛短熊长”模式、推行“慢牛”市场以实现稳健表现的尝试。中国广泛的蓝筹股指数沪深300指数(.CSI300)已从6月高点下跌约20%。
It has also slammed the brakes on a rally running two years, since economic stimulus promises sent shares soaring, and has stalled Beijing's push to break with a long boom-bust pattern and drive a "slow bull" market that delivers reliable performance. China's broad blue-chip index (.CSI300) has dropped about 20% from highs made in June.
“股市后来演变成了一场投机性的疯牛,”北京基金经理董宝珍表示,“现在我们看到泡沫破裂了。”这一逆转反映出中国股市的涨幅超过了西方市场或亚洲其他市场,形成鲜明对比的是,美国人工智能股票仅遭遇“轻微刺破”,纳斯达克指数(.IXIC)从三周前创下的历史高点回落了6%。
"The stock market later evolved into a speculative crazy bull," said Beijing-based fund manager Dong Baozhen. "And now we see the bubble bursting." The reversal reflects a rally that ran to higher heights than markets in the West or elsewhere in Asia, and compares with a mere prick to US AI stocks, which have led a 6% drawdown in the Nasdaq (.IXIC) from a record high scaled three weeks ago.
中国市场并无明显的抛售触发因素,尽管交易员表示,高企的股价、税单压力,以及美国或其他国家禁止在数据中心使用中国设备的威胁,共同构成了下跌原因。
There has been no obvious selling trigger in China, although traders said high prices, tax bills and the threat of the US or other nations banning Chinese equipment in data centres all contributed.
据高盛统计,人工智能股票占中国市值的42%,占内地上市A股和香港H股成交额的57%,在一个由散户主导的市场中,鲜有人能逃过痛苦。
With AI stocks running to 42% of China's market capitalisation and 57% of turnover across mainland-listed A-shares and Hong Kong's H-shares, according to Goldman Sachs, few in a market dominated by small investors have escaped pain.
机器人制造商宇树科技(688836.SS)上市时遭散户疯狂认购,超额认购倍数达8000倍,自8月开始交易以来股价已腰斩;芯片制造商长鑫存储(688825.SS)过去一个月市值蒸发逾四分之一。
Shares in robot-maker Unitree (688836.SS), 8,000 times oversubscribed by retail buyers at listing, have halved since they started trading in August, and chipmaker CXMT (688825.SS) has lost more than a quarter of its value in the past month.
芯片制造商摩尔线程科技(688795.SS)和寒武纪科技(688802.SS)去年上市首日分别暴涨400%和700%,自7月以来股价也已腰斩。
Chipmakers MetaX Integrated Circuits (688802.SS) and Moore Threads Technology (688795.SS), which leapt 700% and 400% respectively on their market debuts last year, have also halved in value since July.
来自中国南方海南的小企业主兼投资者陈文胜表示,他因感受到官方对优必选等企业的支持——后者拥有国有背景基金投资——而受鼓舞买入追涨。但陈文胜和他的朋友们如今正吞咽亏损的苦果。
Chen Wensheng, a small business owner and investor from China's southern Hainan, said he bought into the rally emboldened by what he felt was official support for the likes of Unitree, which counted state-backed funds as investors. But Chen and his friends are now nursing losses.
由于一个获得北京背书的投资主题以如此惨烈的方式收场,令许多投资者感到沮丧,纷纷转向防御性资产,这也很可能拖缓科技企业的股权融资进程。
Frustration that an investment theme backed by Beijing has ended so badly has driven many investors into defensive assets and is likely to slow equity fundraising by tech firms.
光模块厂商中际旭创(300308.SZ)和新易盛(300502.SZ)股价较6月和7月的高点下跌约60%,部分原因是华盛顿正推动禁止这些曾经的市场宠儿向美国数据中心供货。
Shares in optical parts makers Zhongji Innolight (300308.SZ) and Eoptolink Technology (300502.SZ) are down roughly 60% from highs in June and July, in part as Washington moves towards banning the one-time darlings from supplying US data centres.
科创50指数的滚动市盈率仍处于100倍左右,虽已从近250倍的高点回落,但投资者将其与纳斯达克100指数30倍的估值对比,担忧抛售潮可能在好转前进一步恶化。
With the STAR50 index still at around 100 times trailing earnings, albeit down from a high of nearly 250, investors compare the Nasdaq 100's multiple of 30 and worry the selloff could get worse before it gets better.
“正在发生的事情将让许多寻求上市的公司叫停脚步,”莲峰资产管理(香港)管理合伙人兼首席投资官洪灏表示。
"What's happening is now going to put a stop for many of the companies trying to get themselves listed," said Hong Hao, managing partner and chief investment officer at Lotus Asset Management in Hong Kong.
这场狂热及其后果,与当局打击杠杆和高频交易、以提高回报并抑制波动的推动形成鲜明对比。国有背景投资者在上涨行情中卖出,以抑制涨幅。中国证券监督管理委员会未立即回复路透社上周传真的提问。
The frenzy and its fallout contrast with a push by authorities to improve returns and dampen volatility by cracking down on leverage and high-frequency trading. State-backed investors were sellers into rallies to keep gains in check. China's market regulator, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, did not immediately reply to questions faxed by Reuters last week.
证监会在其网站上表示,主席吴清本月早些时候与市场参与者会面,听取关于完善资本市场的建议,投资界人士称,这波繁荣对市场结构不利。
CRSC Chairman Wu Qing met with market participants earlier this month to hear suggestions on improving capital markets, the regulator said on its website, and some in the investment community say the boom has been bad for the market's structure.
“过分强调‘科技含量’——即主要指数中按市值加权的科技公司权重——会导致资本行为出现偏差,甚至扭曲,”北京千创资本合伙人王磊(Leo Wang,音译)表示。
"Overemphasising the 'technology content' — that is, the weighting of tech companies by market value in major indexes — leads to a deviation, even a distortion, in capital behaviour," said Leo Wang, partner at Beijing-based Qianchuang Capital.
“这在某些板块造成了严重泡沫,在其他板块造成了严重资金流失。”一些人认为此次抛售蕴含价值,称这既不令人意外,也不利于旨在长期发展并近年来在提升回报(尤其是收益)方面取得成效的市场改革。
"This created a severe bubble in certain sectors and a serious drain on others." Some see value in the selloff, saying it is neither surprising nor detrimental to market reforms that are geared for the long term and have gained traction in driving up returns, particularly income, in recent years.
尽管在过去三个月里他们一直是卖方,但根据汇丰研究,亚洲基金总体上对中国仍处于超配状态。
Although they have been sellers over the past three months, Asia funds in general are overweight on China, according to HSBC research.
高盛本月早些时候发布的一份更新后的推荐名单中,将中际旭创(Innolight)和长鑫存储(CXMT)列入数十只中国AI概念股之列,法巴证券策略师威廉·布拉顿(William Bratton)也表示,市场为谨慎的投资者提供了买入机会。
Goldman Sachs has Innolight and CXMT among dozens of Chinese AI stocks on a revamped recommendation list it published earlier this month, and BNP Paribas Securities strategist William Bratton has said the market offers buying opportunities for the careful.
尽管如此,在内地,许多人仍在关注其他板块,或等待估值进一步下降后再转为买方。
Still, on the mainland many are looking at other sectors or for even lower valuations before they turn buyers.
“就像所有其他中国制造商一样,(芯片制造商和AI供应商)最终都会陷入价格战,”上海卓筑投资管理合伙人、基金经理王卓表示。“没有例外,”他说。“所有泡沫终将破裂。”
"Just like all other Chinese manufacturers, (chipmakers and AI suppliers) will eventually end up in a price war," said fund manager Wang Zhuo, partner at Shanghai Zhuozhu Investment Management. "There's no exception," he said. "All bubbles inevitably burst."