作为华尔街最看涨的策略师之一，Kettner 首次在数月内削减了对股票的押注，理由是投资者情绪的剧烈变化要求在下周美国中期选举前采取更谨慎的做法。
Kettner, among Wall Street’s most bullish strategists, is cutting back on his bet on stocks for the first time in months, arguing that sharp mood changes among investors warrant a more cautious approach ahead of next week’s US midterms.
汇丰控股首席多资产策略师 Kettner 此前在客户通讯中将自己的立场描述为“极度看涨”，他在周一将股票配置从最大超配战术性下调至中性，这是自 3 月中旬以来的首次。
The HSBC Holdings Plc chief multi-asset strategist, who has described his stance in previous client notes as “Max Bullish,” on Monday tactically reduced his stock allocation to neutral from maximum overweight for the first time since mid-March.
他提到，投资者担心如果民主党大获全胜将实施更严格的 AI 监管，以及伊朗战争可能再度升温的风险。他还调整了发达市场主权债务的仓位，目前转为超配，反映出投资者对市场状况定性的快速变化。
He cited investor worries over more stringent AI regulation in the event of a sweeping Democratic victory as well as risks that the Iran war may heat up again. He also flipped his positioning on developed-market sovereign debt, where he is now overweight, reflecting the rapidly changing way in which investors are characterizing market conditions.
Kettner 写道：“鉴于我们面临的不断变化的叙事，我们无法再保持同样的信念水平。目前感觉我们至少必须每周更新一次观点，甚至可能更频繁。”他的担忧与近期其他一些市场专家的言论相呼应。美国银行策略师 Michael Hartnett 表示，投资者的避险情绪——迄今为止最明显地体现在他们轮动至股市中更具防御性的板块——可能会持续到 11 月底。
“Given the constant narrative bingo we just can’t have the same level of conviction any longer,” Kettner wrote. “Right now it feels as if we have to update our views at minimum on a weekly basis, if not even more.”His concerns mirror recent statements from some other market pundits. Bank of America Corp. strategist Michael Hartnett has said investors’ risk-off mood — so far most evident in their rotation into more defensive parts of the stock market — is likely to continue well into November.
另一方面，摩根士丹利的 Michael Wilson 表示，中期选举应成为“一个出清事件”，一旦其带来的风险消除，可能会触发股市进一步上涨。
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, on the other hand, said the midterms should act as “a clearing event,” with the potential to trigger further equity gains once the risk they pose is out of the way.
近年来因最早预判当前股市牛市而声名鹊起的汇丰策略师 Kettner 对近期长期油价上涨表示担忧。“很难想象会有立即的出口，”他说。
HSBC’s Kettner, who made a name for himself in recent years as one of the first to call the current bull run in stocks, expressed concern over the recent rise in long-term oil prices. “An immediate off-ramp seems hard to imagine,” he said.
Kettner 对明年的前景依然看好，他表示，未来几个月若在伊朗战争的解决上取得可信进展，“将为几乎所有资产类别提供一个完美的‘金发姑娘’背景”。他还说，引领人工智能建设的所谓美国超大规模科技公司出现正向自由现金流惊喜，以及美联储立场更加鸽派，都可能助推股市继续走高。
Kettner remains bullish on the outlook for next year, saying credible progress toward a resolution of the Iran war in the coming months “would be an all-clear Goldilocks backdrop for virtually all asset classes.”Positive free-cash-flow surprises for the so-called US hyperscalers leading the artificial intelligence build out, as well as a more dovish Federal Reserve could help stocks to continue their away up, he said.