随着以色列人周二前往投票站，海湾国家正密切关注。这是自2023年10月7日恐怖袭击以来的首次全国大选。查塔姆研究所中东和北非项目主任萨南·瓦基尔告诉Semafor，如果总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡获胜，将意味着以色列采取更加强硬的军事姿态；他的失败“可能是一个向更稳定的地区秩序迈进的机会”。
Gulf states are closely watching as Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, in the first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023 terror attack. A victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would mean an increasingly assertive military posture from Israel; his defeat could “be an opportunity to move towards a more stable regional order,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, told Semafor.
瓦基尔同时也是约翰霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院讲师。她表示，从大局看，内塔尼亚胡获胜将意味着地区局势维持现状：《亚伯拉罕协议》将继续有效，若没有通往巴勒斯坦建国的可信路径，沙特实现正常化仍遥不可及。新政府不一定会在伊朗或巴勒斯坦问题上改变方向，但据瓦基尔称，它可能“为海湾国家在加沙和约旦河西岸的接触创造一些外交空间”。
Broadly, a Netanyahu win would mean more of the same for the region, too: The Abraham Accords would hold, and Saudi normalization would stay out of reach without a credible path to Palestinian statehood, Vakil, who is also a lecturer at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said. A new government wouldn’t necessarily shift course on Iran or the Palestinians, but it could “create some diplomatic space” for Gulf engagement on Gaza and the West Bank, according to Vakil.
“内塔尼亚胡落选将受到大多数海湾首都的欢迎。”民调指向议会僵局，反对派——由前军方首长加迪·艾森科特领导的“任何人只要不是内塔尼亚胡”阵营——有望赢得最多席位，但不足以组成多数。这意味着可能出现漫长的组阁谈判（内塔尼亚胡在2022年大选后用了58天组建政府）。艾森科特支持在必要时采取军事行动阻止伊朗核计划，但近几周他表示，通过军事手段在德黑兰实现政权更迭是不可行的。
“A Netanyahu defeat would be welcomed by most Gulf capitals.”Polls point to a deadlocked parliament, with the opposition — an anyone-but-Netanyahu bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot — on track to win the most seats, but short of a majority. That means the potential for protracted coalition talks (Netanyahu took 58 days to form a government after the 2022 vote). Eisenkot supports military action to stop Iran’s nuclear program if necessary, but in recent weeks he has called regime change in Tehran militarily unachievable.