拉哈特，以色列——撒哈拉内盖夫沙漠横跨而立的是一个未被任何以色列两大主要政治阵营争取的选民池——尽管选举仅剩不到两周，两党僵持不下。事实上，他们正在做相反的事。
RAHAT, Israel—Spread across the Negev Desert is an untapped pool of voters that neither of Israel’s two main political blocs is trying to court—even though they’re locked in a dead heat with elections less than two weeks out. In fact, they are doing the opposite.
以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡及其主要对手、前军方首长加迪·艾森科特均向支持者承诺，不会接受来自以色列阿拉伯公民代表党的支持，这部分人口约占五分之一，占所有有选举权选民的17%，但两大阵营均没有明确的胜利路径，离不开他们。
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, both promised their supporters that they won’t accept backing from the parties that represent Israel’s Arab citizens, about a fifth of the population and 17% of all eligible voters—but neither bloc has a clear path to victory without them.
两党试图贬低许多以色列人视为有毒的选民群体，这可能导致国家陷入艰难的政治僵局。若双方均无法确保组建稳定联盟所需的61席多数，内塔尼亚胡可能继续掌管代理政府直至举行新选举。
Their efforts to delegitimize a voting bloc many Israelis consider toxic risk dragging the country into a grueling political deadlock. If neither side can shore up the 61-seat majority needed to form a stable coalition, Netanyahu could remain in charge of a caretaker government until new elections are held.
民调显示，内塔尼亚胡与艾森科特两大阵营均预计在议会赢得50多席。随着阿拉伯党有望获得超过十席，理论上他们的支持有望使任一方超过胜选门槛。
Polls show the Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs of parties are each projected to win just over 50 seats in the legislature. With Arab parties poised to capture more than a dozen, their support could theoretically push one side over the finish line.
接受这类帮助在政治上不受欢迎。据以色列民调机构拉扎尔研究于10月初的调查显示，59%的以色列人反对在政府中纳入阿拉伯党。
Accepting that help is politically unpopular. An early October survey by Israeli pollster Lazar Research found that 59% of Israelis opposed including Arab parties in the government.
部分选民认为阿拉伯人无法信任在犹太国家执政，尤其在2023年10月7日哈马斯武装袭击以色列后的首次选举中。阿拉伯公民则担忧自己将永远得不到平等对待。
Some voters argue Arabs can’t be trusted to serve in the government of a Jewish state, especially in the first election since the Hamas-led assault on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Arab citizens in turn fear they will never be treated equally.
“如果非要用一个词来形容以色列社会正在发生的事情，那就是极化，”北西方大学犹太-阿拉伯关系专家艾里·雷赫斯（Elie Rekhess）说道。“自10月7日以来，犹太人与阿拉伯人之间的疏离，以及犹太人之间的疏离，都有了显著加深。”以色列最大的阿拉伯城市拉哈特（Rahat）正准备举行一场选举，在该选举中，主流的犹太党根本不在考虑范围内。
“If I had to choose one word to describe what’s happening in Israeli society, it’s polarization,” said Elie Rekhess, an expert on Jewish-Arab relations at Northwestern University. “The alienation between Jews and Arabs, and also between Jews, has dramatically deepened since Oct. 7.”Rahat, Israel’s largest Arab city, is gearing up for an election in which the mainstream Jewish parties aren’t even in the picture.
61岁的教育部职员萨利姆·阿塔卡（Salim Atayka）表示，他感到失望，因为以色列统一阵线（Eisenkot）领导的反对派把阿拉伯选民的支持抛在一旁，但选民们对内塔尼亚胡的政策表达了强烈愤怒。“我们现在的主要目标是推翻内塔尼亚胡的政府，”他说。
Salim Atayka, a 61-year-old who works in the city’s education department, said it was disappointing that the Eisenkot-led opposition cast Arab support aside, but voters are united in their fury over Netanyahu’s policies. “Our main goal right now is to get rid of Netanyahu’s government,” he said.
该市杂乱的环岛被拉艾（Ra’am）和联合名单（Joint List）这两个阿拉伯选票联盟的竞争性广告覆盖。两者都把焦点放在争取投票率而非相互攻击。虽然阿拉伯人占所有有资格投票者的相当比例，但投票率历来在45%至65%之间波动，而犹太人中则约为73%。
The city’s cluttered roundabouts are plastered with competing billboards for Ra’am and the Joint List, two Arab tickets. Both are focused on fighting low turnout rather than each other. While Arabs account for a significant share of all eligible voters, turnout has historically hovered between 45% and 65%, compared with about 73% among Jews.
尽管这两个联盟不太可能赢得议会中的任何微小席位，但阿拉伯选民的高投票率可能产生巨大影响。政党必须获得至少3.25%的选票——约相当于四个席位——才能计入统计。如果阿拉伯投票率略有上升，可能会提高门槛，导致若干小型右翼党被排除，进而削弱内塔尼亚胡的政治位置，政治策略人士表示。
Though those tickets are unlikely to win even a minor role in government, high Arab turnout could have a massive impact. Parties are required to win at least 3.25% of all ballots—roughly equal to four seats—for their votes to count at all. If Arab turnout goes up even slightly, it could raise the threshold and knock out several small right-wing parties and potentially weaken Netanyahu’s position, political strategists say.
“阿拉伯选票在本次选举中的真正力量就是这一点，”以色列民主研究所（Israel Democracy Institute）阿拉伯社会研究员穆罕默德·卡莱利（Muhammed Khalaily）说道，该研究所位于耶路撒冷。
“That is the real power of the Arab vote in this election,” said Muhammed Khalaily, a researcher on Arab society at the Israel Democracy Institute, a think tank based in Jerusalem.
内塔尼亚胡阵营可能只需要阻止以色列统一阵线获得决定性胜利，就足以保住执政。该阵营试图把阿拉伯党描绘为对犹太国家的威胁，以便让其对手更难以向他们求助。
The Netanyahu camp, which may need only to prevent Eisenkot from securing an outright win to stay in power, has sought to paint Arab parties as a threat to the Jewish state to make it harder for his opponent to turn to them.
他的竞选口号之一是“要么正确，要么巴勒斯坦”，警告阿拉伯政治人物将利用政府中的任何空隙推动建国。极右翼联盟成员甚至试图禁止阿拉伯党派参选。此举被以色列最高法院推翻。
One of his campaign slogans is “Right, or Palestine,” warning that Arab politicians will use any opening in government to push for statehood. Far-right coalition members even tried to ban Arab parties from running. The move was overturned by Israel’s Supreme Court.
内塔尼亚胡及其盟友将他们的挑战者描述为受阿拉伯利益摆布。最近的一段AI生成的竞选视频将反对派领袖描绘成最著名阿拉伯政治人物——拉阿姆党主席曼苏尔·阿巴斯——的实际仆人，为他跳肚皮舞、打扫地板、洗碗，并在他坐在梅赛德斯后座喝香槟时开车载他。
Netanyahu and his allies cast their challengers as beholden to Arab interests. One recent AI-generated campaign video depicted opposition leaders as literal servants of the most prominent Arab politician—Ra’am party Chairman Mansour Abbas—performing a belly dance for him, sweeping his floors, washing his dishes and driving him around as he drinks Champagne in the back seat of a Mercedes.
拉哈特市副市长、拉阿姆党成员优素福·阿布·贾法尔表示，阿拉伯人有强烈动力赶下目前的右翼政府。他说，内塔尼亚胡的联盟一直在煽动犹太民族主义，加速对缺乏政府承认的部落阿拉伯村庄的有争议的拆除，并且几乎没有采取行动来应对阿拉伯社区暴力犯罪的激增。
Yousef Abu Jaffar, the deputy mayor of Rahat and a member of Ra’am, said Arabs are highly motivated to oust the current right-wing government. Netanyahu’s coalition has drummed up Jewish nationalism, accelerated controversial demolitions of tribal Arab villages that lack government recognition, and done little to address a surge of violent crime in Arab communities, he said.
“我们不喜欢用恐惧理论来激励人们，但这就是我们目前的处境，”阿布·贾法尔说。“目前有一种真实的紧迫感，认为这次选举关系到生存。”从贾法尔在拉哈特市中心的办公室开车10分钟处，45岁、育有八个孩子的母亲吉汉·阿布·瓦迪指着一堆瓦砾说，她的房子就在几天前还矗立在此。
“We don’t like to use fear theory to motivate people, but that’s the situation we are in,” Abu Jaffar said. “There’s a real sense of urgency right now that this election is a matter of survival.”A 10-minute drive from Jaffar’s office in downtown Rahat, Jihan Abu Wadi, a 45-year-old mother of eight, pointed to a pile of rubble where her house stood just a few days before.
10月11日，她和邻居们被警告说，他们的房子将在第二天早上被拆除。他们整晚未眠，担心墙壁会倒塌在他们身上。大约早上7点30分，以色列边境警察骑马和摩托车到达，随后推土机到来，拆除了清真寺和大约70栋房屋，她说。
On Oct. 11, she and her neighbors were warned that their homes would be demolished the next morning. They didn’t sleep all night, worried that the walls would be brought down on top of them. Around 7:30 a.m., Israeli border police arrived on horses and motorbikes, followed by bulldozers that tore down a mosque and around 70 houses, she said.
这是由内塔尼亚胡的极端右翼国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔领导的执法行动的一部分。他在社交媒体上表示，这些房屋是非法建造的，并且以后还会有更多拆除行动。“这次，我确信每个人都会投票，”她说。
It was part of an enforcement effort led by Netanyahu’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who said on social media the homes had been built illegally and that more demolitions would follow. “This time, I am sure that everyone will vote,” she said.
以色列的阿拉伯公民是一群身份有时会重叠的拼贴体，他们融入以色列的程度各不相同。他们在学校学习希伯来语，经常与犹太邻居一起工作。有些人选择在以色列军队服役。
Israel’s Arab citizens are a patchwork of sometimes overlapping identities, with varying degrees of integration into Israel. They study Hebrew in school and often work alongside Jewish neighbors. Some choose to serve in the Israeli military.
许多人但并非所有人都自认为是巴勒斯坦人。以色列的北部边境地区居住着大量阿拉伯穆斯林、基督徒以及一个封闭的德鲁兹少数民族。在南部，大多数阿拉伯人是贝都因人，主要是逊尼派穆斯林，他们的祖先是曾在内盖夫沙漠放牧骆驼和羊的游牧部落。
Many but not all identify as Palestinian. Israel’s northern frontiers are home to a large number of Arab Muslims, Christians and an insular Druze minority. In the south, most Arabs are Bedouins, mainly Sunni Muslims who descended from nomadic clans that roamed the Negev Desert herding camels and sheep.
犹太政治家与阿拉伯政治家之间的合作很少见。在1990年代，阿拉伯议员同意阻止右翼试图推翻伊扎克·拉宾政府的行动，以换取政治让步，并最终促成了奥斯陆协议的通过——这些具有里程碑意义的和平协议为巴勒斯坦自治提供了框架。
Collaboration between Jewish and Arab politicians has been rare. In the 1990s, Arab lawmakers agreed to block right-wing attempts to oust the government of Yitzhak Rabin in exchange for political concessions and ultimately enabled the passage of the Oslo Accords, the landmark peace agreements that created a framework for Palestinian self-governance.
2021年，Ra’am成为第一个正式加入以色列执政联盟的阿拉伯政党。该实验在18个月后破裂，导致内塔尼亚胡重新掌权。
In 2021, Ra’am became the first Arab party to officially join a governing coalition in Israel. The experiment collapsed after 18 months and returned Netanyahu to power.
阿巴斯是右翼非法化运动的主要目标，他建立自己的政治运动时坚持务实，搁置巴勒斯坦国建设等敏感议题，以争取影响人们日常生活的成果，比如更好的学校和执法。
Abbas, the primary target of the right’s delegitimization campaign, has built his political movement on pragmatism, putting aside sensitive issues like Palestinian statehood to make gains that affect people’s daily lives, like better schools and law enforcement.
今年夏天，他采取了前所未有的步骤，将自己选举名单上的第二名职位提供给一名以色列犹太人——Yoav Segalovitz，一名前高级警察官员，因在阿拉伯城市打击有组织犯罪而成名，而且他本人也表现出某种程度的务实。
This summer he took the unprecedented step of offering the No. 2 spot on his election slate to an Israeli Jew—Yoav Segalovitz, a former top police official who made his name combating organized crime in Arab cities, and who also turns out to be something of a pragmatist himself.
“我早就明白，如果我们真的想要改变，这种改变必须来自体制内部，”塞加洛维茨说。谈到他的阿拉伯伙伴时，他说：“我百分之百地信任他。”
“I’ve understood for a long time that if we really want to make a change, it must come from within the establishment,” Segalovitz said.
请将来信发送至feliz.solomon@wsj.com，致Feliz Solomon。
Of his Arab partner, he said: “I trust him one hundred percent.”