民调专家纳特·西尔弗周日声称，民调“必须非常错误”，共和党才能保住众议院，这一言论是在今年中期选举还有一周多时发表的。
Pollster Nate Silver claimed Sunday that polling “would have to be very wrong” for Republicans to hold onto the House, comments that came a little over a week before this year’s midterms.
“你今年一直看到民主党初选投票率很高。我们也谈到了提前投票数据。你知道，难上加难，我想，要赢得参议院，民主党必须赢得一些特朗普在2024年以两位数优势获胜的州，”西尔弗在CNN主持人法里德·扎卡里亚的节目中对CNN说。
“You’ve seen high turnout in Democratic primaries all year. We talk about the early voting data too. You know, the hard place versus the rock, I guess, is that, to win the Senate, Democrats have to win in some states that President Trump carried by double digits in 2024,” Silver told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on his show.
“所以，这就是为什么在众议院，民调必须非常错误，比2016年更错误，民主党才会无法赢得众议院，但参议院，每个人都在猜测：这股浪潮会不会足够大，淹没得克萨斯、爱荷华、俄亥俄、堪萨斯、阿拉斯加这样的红州？”距离选举日不到一周，共和党面临艰难的战斗。该党面临着伊朗不受欢迎的战争、生活成本担忧以及特朗普支持率下滑等问题。
“So, that’s why in the House, the polling would have to be very wrong, more wrong than 2016 for Democrats to fail to win the House, but the Senate, everyone’s trying to guess: Will this wave be big enough to inundate red states like Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska?”Republicans are facing an uphill battle with Election Day almost a week away. The party is facing issues like the unpopular war in Iran, concerns about the cost of living and Trump’s slumping approval rating.
根据决策数据总部（DDHQ）的民调平均值，周一下午特朗普的支持率为39.3%，不支持率为59.3%。
According to a polling average from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Trump’s approval rating was sitting at 39.3 percent on Monday afternoon, and his disapproval rating was at 59.3 percent.
DDHQ还预测，民主党将在今年的中期选举中获得235个众议院席位，比众议院多数党所需的218个席位多17个。
DDHQ has also forecasted that the Democrats will garner 235 House seats in this year’s midterms, 17 seats over the 218 needed for the House majority.
至于参议院，DDHQ还预测，民主党将在即将到来的选举中获得51个席位，也将赢得参议院的多数席位。
When it comes to the Senate, DDHQ has also forecast that the Democrats will garner 51 seats in the upcoming elections, gaining the majority in the chamber as well.
能源成本也成为今年中期选举的核心问题，霍尔木兹海峡——石油行业的关键水道——因与伊朗的冲突而关闭。最近的民调显示，选民将特朗普政府视为价格上涨的责任方，进一步复杂化了共和党的中期选举形势。
Energy costs have also become central to this year’s midterms, with the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for the oil industry, closed amid the conflict with Iran. Recent polls have shown that voters blame the Trump administration for higher prices, further complicating the Republicans’ midterm landscape.
据AAA称，周一下午，美国普通汽油每加仑平均价格约为4.29美元，而去年同期约为3.05美元。
On Monday afternoon, the average price of a gallon of regular gas in the U.S. was about $4.29, up from about $3.05 last year at the same time, according to AAA.