Anthropic 因提交可能成为历史上最大规模首次公开募股（IPO）申请而引发华尔街热议。迈克尔·伯里表示，首次仔细审视这家人工智能初创公司的业务后，并未被说服认为它是赢家。“这里有很多东西，但没有什么能改变我的看法，”这位因《大空头》而闻名的投资者周一在关于Anthropic招股说明书的Substack聊天帖子中对订阅者表示。
Anthropic has set Wall Street abuzz by filing for what could be the biggest IPO in history. Michael Burry says the first good look at the AI startup's business failed to convince him it's a winner. "There is a lot here but nothing that changes my view," the investor of "The Big Short" fame told his Substack subscribers in a chat thread about Anthropic's prospectus on Monday.
伯里称，过去大约四个月里，“开发者格局发生了很大变化”，但这并未体现在Anthropic的S-1表格中，该表格大多提供截至6月30日的信息。他指出，收入正在“放缓”，并引用Anthropic的说法称，第三季度收入是2024年第四季度产生的1.97亿美元的86倍，即约169亿美元。Anthropic的收入从今年第一季度到第二季度增长了144%，但从第二季度到第三季度仅增长了约46%。
Burry said that "a lot changed in the developer landscape" over the last four months or so, but that's not reflected in Anthropic's Form S-1, which largely provides information through June 30. He noted that revenue is "slowing," citing Anthropic's claim that third-quarter revenue was 86 times the $197 million it generated in the fourth quarter of 2024, or about $16.9 billion. Anthropic's revenue rose by 144% from the first to the second quarter of this year, but only by around 46% between the second and third quarters.
“整体增长放缓并非归因于tokenmaxxing的下降，但我没料到会提到这一点，”伯里写道。他指的是最大化AI代币消耗的趋势，由于成本问题，该趋势在过去几个月里已不再受欢迎。“这份S-1未涵盖的事情远不止这些，”伯里表示，建议订阅者重读他关于该主题的文章。
"Overall slowing of growth is not attributed to a decline in tokenmaxxing, but I did not expect that to be mentioned," Burry wrote. He was referring to the trend of maximizing AI token consumption, which has fallen out of favor in recent months given its costs. "There is so much more going on than this S-1 addresses," Burry said, recommending his subscribers re-read his articles on the subject.
在另一条评论中，伯里写道，像Claude这样的大语言模型（LLM）正在“改进”，并且“已经被更高效地使用，这一趋势将持续下去，不利于它们的增长率。”伯里表示，他关注的是许多AI交易的债务融资的复杂性和脆弱性、安装新显卡的障碍支撑了对旧芯片的需求、一旦短缺缓解内存芯片价格可能崩盘、压缩和小语言模型（SLM）减少了对算力的需求，以及“不仅是公司，还有它们正在进行的交易背后的基本面。”
In another comment, Burry wrote that large language models (LLMs) like Claude are "improving" and "already being used more efficiently and that trend will continue, to the detriment of their growth rate." Burry said he's focused on the complexity and fragility of the debt financing many AI deals, hurdles to installing new graphics chips shoring up demand for older chips, a potential crash in memory chip prices once the shortage eases, compression and small language models (SLMs) reducing the need for computing power, and the "fundamentals behind not just companies but the deals they are doing."
针对一位订阅者表示大科技公司正从Anthropic的AI模型转向自研模型、且Token正在迅速商品化，伯里写道：“是的，我听到的也是这样。”Anthropic未立即回应就伯里的帖子置评的请求。这位反向投资者因在2000年代中期大举做空房地产泡沫，其事迹被记录在书籍和电影《大空头》中而一举成名。去年冬天，他从经营对冲基金转向在Substack上撰写个人投资心得。
Responding to a subscriber who said that Big Tech companies are shifting from Anthropic's AI models to their own and that tokens are rapidly being commoditized, Burry wrote: "Yes, that is what I hear." Anthropic did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Burry's posts. The contrarian investor shot to fame after his massive wager against the mid-2000s housing bubble was chronicled in the book and movie "The Big Short." He pivoted from running a hedge fund to writing about his personal investments on Substack last winter.
此后，他作品的一个反复出现的主题是对AI繁荣的深度怀疑。他曾指出增长放缓、对芯片和数据中心的过度投资、激进会计、隐性负债以及循环融资交易。
A recurring theme of his work since then has been deep skepticism of the AI boom. He's flagged slowing growth, overinvestment in microchips and data centers, aggressive accounting, hidden liabilities, and circular financing deals.