开放权重模型、中美紧张关系、台湾——这些只是安谋科技备受期待的上市招股说明书中，十多处提及中国相关风险的几个例子。这份文件在酝酿数月后，于周一终于发布。
Open-weight models, China-US tensions, Taiwan – just a few of the more than dozen references to China-related risks cited in Anthropic’s much-anticipated listing prospectus, which was finally released on Monday after months of speculation.
这些披露主要集中在向美国证券交易委员会提交的这份93页的“风险因素”章节中，揭示了这家硅谷初创公司如何评估中国及其人工智能产业构成的商业威胁。
Mostly concentrated within the 93-page “risk factors” section of the filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the disclosures reveal how the Silicon Valley start-up assesses the commercial threats posed by China and its artificial intelligence industry.
这些警示发布之际，安谋科技正准备进行可能成为历史上规模最大的首次公开募股——并规划在未来20年投入超过5000亿美元用于AI基础设施建设。
The warnings come as Anthropic prepares for what could become the largest initial public offering in history – and lays out plans for more than US$500 billion of AI infrastructure investment over the next 20 years.
风险评估的一个核心焦点是开放权重模型的迅猛崛起，其底层数值参数公开发布，供用户免费下载和修改。在中国初创公司如深度求索和Z.ai取得成功的推动下，中国已成为该领域的全球领导者。
A central focus of the risk assessment is the rapid rise of open-weight models, whose underlying numerical parameters are released publicly for users to download for free and modify. China has emerged as a global leader in this domain, propelled by the success of start-ups such as DeepSeek and Z.ai.
尽管安谋科技及其首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊曾多次警告开放权重系统带来的安全风险，但这份招股说明书标志着该公司首次正式承认，这些模型对其业务构成了直接的商业威胁。
While Anthropic and its CEO Dario Amodei have repeatedly warned of the safety risks posed by open-weight systems, the prospectus marks the first time the company has formally acknowledged the direct commercial threat they pose to its business.
公司表示：“[开放权重]或开源AI模型可能会夺取特定用例下的一部分市场份额，这可能会给我们的产品定价带来压力，或导致某些客户针对这些用例转而采用开源替代方案。”
“[Open-weight] or open-source AI models may capture a portion of the market for certain use cases, which could exert pricing pressure on our offerings or lead certain customers to adopt open-source alternatives for those use cases,” the company said.
北京科技分析师、Hello China Tech创始人赵博（Poe Zhao，音译）表示，该文件凸显了中国竞争对手正在给安谋科技施加压力，尤其是在那些“优先考虑成本效益而非智能水平”的企业用户群体中。
Poe Zhao, a Beijing-based technology analyst and founder of Hello China Tech, said the filing underscored how Chinese competitors were exerting pressure on Anthropic, particularly among enterprise users who “prioritise cost efficiency over intelligence”.
例如，安谋科技旗舰模型Claude Opus 5.5的Token价格，约为Z.ai顶级模型GLM-5.3的五倍。
Anthropic’s flagship Claude Opus 5.5 model, for example, has a token price around five times higher than Z.ai’s top-tier GLM-5.3.
Anthropic 还将北京与台北之间的紧张关系列为供应链脆弱性，指出先进芯片制造高度集中于台积电。
Anthropic also identified tensions between Beijing and Taipei as a supply-chain vulnerability, pointing to the concentration of advanced chip manufacturing at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.
北京视台湾为中国的一部分，不排除以武力实现统一。包括美国在内的大多数国家不承认台湾为独立国家，但华盛顿反对任何以武力夺取该自治岛屿的企图，并承诺向其提供武器。
Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
Amodei 一直是硅谷最直言不讳的批评中国人士之一，曾将中国描述为“高科技监控国家”。
Amodei has been among Silicon Valley’s most outspoken China critics, having described the country as a “hi-tech surveillance state”.
不过，招股说明书承认，美国对先进芯片相关技术的出口管制——Anthropic 曾通过自身游说支持这些举措——可能会反噬其运营，指出贸易壁垒“可能影响算力的价格或可获得性”。
However, the filing acknowledged that US export controls on advanced chip-related technology – moves that Anthropic supported with its own lobbying – could rebound on its operations, noting that trade barriers “could affect the price or availability of compute”.
招股说明书还提及了 Anthropic 近期对据称利用 Claude 输出训练自有模型的中国公司的打击——AI 行业称这种做法为“蒸馏”。
The prospectus also addressed Anthropic’s recent crackdown on Chinese companies allegedly using outputs from Claude to train their own models – a practice known in the AI industry as “distillation”.
Anthropic 披露，今年前九个月高达 7% 的营收与“我们随后认定违反我们使用政策或商业条款使用我们的模型、平台和应用程序”的账户有关。
Anthropic disclosed that up to 7 per cent of its revenue in the first nine months of the year was tied to accounts “we subsequently determine are using our models, platform and applications in violation of our usage policy or commercial terms”.
公司警告，在 8 月和 9 月加强使用合规执法后，这部分营收流预计会萎缩。此次打击恰逢近几周中国大陆和香港用户反映访问限制收紧。
The company cautioned that this revenue stream was likely to shrink after heightened usage enforcement in August and September. The clampdown coincided with tighter access curbs reported by users in mainland China and Hong Kong in recent weeks.
尽管面临来自中国的商业逆风，Anthropic 重申对其增长轨迹充满信心，援引其在需要“最高智能”的市场细分领域的主导地位。
Despite commercial headwinds from China, Anthropic reiterated confidence in its growth trajectory, citing its dominance of market segments that demanded “the highest intelligence”.
招股说明书中的财务披露显示，上半年营收达到 163 亿美元——与去年同期相比激增 14 倍。
Financial disclosures in the filing showed revenue reached US$16.3 billion in the first half of the year – a 14-fold surge compared with the same period last year.
截至6月30日，该公司持有约1320亿美元的现金、现金等价物及流动性投资，这一“战争储备金”超过了亚马逊和Meta Platforms等超大规模云服务商。
The company held around US$132 billion in cash, cash equivalents and liquid investments as of June 30, a war chest surpassing those of hyperscalers such as Amazon.com and Meta Platforms.
Hedgeye Risk Management的Felix Wang表示：“我交谈的很多投资者只希望IPO现在就发生。”尽管Anthropic在上半年录得807亿美元净亏损，但公司称其中724亿美元源于一次性会计调整。
A lot of investors I talk to just want the IPO to happen nowFelix Wang, Hedgeye Risk Management While Anthropic posted a net loss of US$80.7 billion for the six-month period, US$72.4 billion of that stemmed from a one-off accounting adjustment, the company said.
上半年毛利率约为85%，显著高于同期在港上市的中国竞争对手Z.ai（即智谱AI）的26%和MiniMax的18%。
Gross margins stood at about 85 per cent in the first half, significantly outpacing Hong Kong-listed Chinese competitors Z.ai – also known as Zhipu AI – at 26 per cent and MiniMax at 18 per cent during the same period.
Hello China Tech的赵姓人士表示：“这些公司衡量这些成本的方式并不完全相同，但差距非常大。”
“The companies do not measure these costs in exactly the same way, but the gap is very large,” Hello China Tech’s Zhao said.
Hedgeye Risk Management董事总经理兼全球科技板块负责人Felix Wang表示，投资者普遍松了一口气，认为Anthropic的IPO很可能很快就会进行。
Felix Wang, managing director and global tech sector head at Hedgeye Risk Management, said there was general relief among investors that Anthropic’s IPO was likely to happen soon.
他说：“我交谈的很多投资者只希望IPO现在就发生，”同时指出Anthropic不太可能达到据报道其一直在寻求的2万亿美元估值。
“A lot of investors I talk to just want the IPO to happen now,” he said, while noting that Anthropic was unlikely to fetch the US$2 trillion valuation it had reportedly been seeking.
“这就是昨天市场上涨的原因——松了一口气，IPO流程正在推进，尽管没有任何保证。”
“This is why markets were up yesterday – a sigh of relief that the IPO process is moving forward, though nothing is guaranteed.”