随着投资者对人工智能交易的信心承压，交易员正转向医疗保健股寻求避风港。
With investor confidence in the artificial intelligence trade under pressure, traders are turning to healthcare stocks for refuge.
自4月底以来，截至周一收盘，标普500医疗保健指数上涨约23%——跑赢大盘和所有其他板块。其中包括高飞的科技股和受持续的伊朗战争提振而飙升的能源股。医疗保健板块的反弹由礼来公司、艾伯维公司和强生公司领涨。
Since the end of April, the S&P 500 Healthcare Index has risen about 23% through Monday’s close — outperforming the broader market and every other sector. That includes high-flying technology names and surging energy stocks that have benefited from the ongoing Iran War. Healthcare’s rally has been led by Eli Lilly & Co., AbbVie Inc. and Johnson & Johnson.
华尔街正在升温对该板块的看好，特别是随着围绕人工智能——以及科技股整体——的情绪助长了对规避风险资产的日益增长的渴望。
Wall Street has been warming up to the sector, particularly as sentiment around AI — and tech in general — fuels increasing desire for protection from risky assets.
雷蒙德詹姆斯投资管理公司首席市场策略师马特·奥顿表示，医疗保健被视为一种“反AI交易”，并补充称，该板块在与AI支出“焦虑”相关的股票抛售中一直处于另一面。资金流向也指向命运的转变。根据Baird Strategas汇编的截至10月19日的数据，在过去65天里，医疗保健交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金流入约40亿美元，领跑所有其他板块。与此同时，科技板块在该期间经历了最大规模的资金流出——达60亿美元。
Healthcare is being viewed as an anti-AI trade, said Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James Investment Management, adding that the cohort has been on the other side of selloffs in names related to AI spending “angst.”Fund flows also point to a change in fortunes. Healthcare exchange-traded funds have outpaced every other sector on a trailing 65-day basis with about $4 billion of inflows, according to data through Oct. 19 compiled by Baird Strategas. Tech, on the other hand, has seen the biggest outflows — $6 billion — during that period.
直到大约六个月前，医疗保健股仍大幅跑输大盘。奥顿补充道：“所以，从估值角度来看，它更具吸引力。我认为许多投资者将其视为寻求安全的去处。”当云计算服务提供商CoreWeave公司股价因债务达到通常预示困境的水平而暴跌时，科技股经历了自特朗普总统于2025年4月释放关税议程以来最糟糕的一周。与此同时，医疗保健板块延续了其周线连涨势头。
Up until about six months ago, healthcare stocks significantly underperformed the broader market. “So, from a valuation perspective it’s more attractive,” Orton added. “I think a lot of investors have viewed it as a place to go for safety.”When shares of cloud-computing services provider CoreWeave Inc. slumped as its debt reached levels that typically indicate distress, tech stocks had their worst week since President Donald Trump unleashed his tariff agenda in April 2025. At the same time healthcare extended its streak of weekly gains.
Zacks Investment Management首席市场策略师Brian Mulberry表示，投资者正因CoreWeave风波而“为投资组合去风险”。“因担忧AI而紧张的资金正流回医疗保健板块。”State Street Investment Management的Michael Arone指出，除了避险资金流入，医疗保健板块的盈利表现及2027年前景改善也在推动其反弹。Arone认为，投资者正在调整投资组合，使其不再过度集中于AI，而非完全抛售科技股转投医疗保健。
Investors were “derisking their portfolios” in response to the CoreWeave drama, said Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management. “The nervous money that was scared of AI is moving back into healthcare.”Beyond the flight to safety, healthcare earnings and an improving outlook for 2027 are also contributing to its rally, said State Street Investment Management’s Michael Arone. In Arone’s view, investors are rejiggering their portfolios to be less centered around AI, as opposed to ditching tech entirely for healthcare.
此外，即将到来的美国中期选举令投资者寻找能抵御华盛顿潜在政治变化的板块。摩根士丹利分析师Erin Wright表示，医疗保健正符合这一特征，该板块具有“相对感知上的隔离性”，较少受监管噪音影响。
Furthermore, the upcoming US midterm election has investors seeking sectors that will be resilient to potential political changes in Washington. This is where healthcare comes in, said Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright, who notes that the sector has “perceived relative insulation” from regulatory noise.
然而，随着财报季全面展开，医疗保健板块的反弹面临考验。强生公司本月早些时候发布的业绩令市场失望，拖累该板块录得逾一个月来最差表现。
However, with earnings season in full swing, the healthcare rally is vulnerable. Results from Johnson & Johnson earlier this month disappointed the market and dragged the cohort to its worst performance in more than a month.
随后，Moderna Inc.周四暴跌18%，此前其与Merck & Co.合作的备受期待的个性化黑色素瘤疫苗试验完整数据泄露，打破了华尔街今年早些时候设定的高预期。医疗保健指数周五下跌1.1%，较前一日收盘历史高位回落。
Then, Moderna Inc. slumped 18% on Thursday after full data from a trial on its widely anticipated personalized melanoma vaccine with Merck & Co. leaked, undermining lofty expectations set by Wall Street earlier this year. The healthcare gauge fell 1.1% on Friday, retreating from an all-time closing high just a day earlier.
Raymond James Investment Management的Orton表示，随着礼来等大型药企财报即将发布，目前是关键时刻。
With earnings slated to roll out from big names like Lilly, Raymond James Investment Management’s Orton said it’s a crucial time.
Orton称：“如果它们交出亮眼业绩，我认为医疗保健板块仍有上涨空间，因为在人工智能热潮的掩盖下，该板块长期处于投资不足状态。”
“If they do deliver, I think there’s scope for healthcare to keep running just because it’s been such an underinvested part of the market with all of the enthusiasm around artificial intelligence,” said Orton.
尽管如此，目前医疗保健仍被视为交易者从科技股轮动撤离的自然去向。本月早些时候，RBC Capital Markets将医疗保健评级上调至“增持”，将科技评级下调至“市场权重”。
Still, so far, healthcare is seen as a natural destination for traders rotating out of tech. Earlier this month, RBC Capital Markets upgraded healthcare to overweight and downgraded tech to market weight.
“我不认为领涨板块会是半导体，因此会有资金流出半导体——目前标普500指数中权重最大的板块——流向它们受益的领域，”富国银行首席股票策略师权旭成（Ohsung Kwon）表示。“我依然认为大量资金将流向其他科技领域和医疗保健板块。”
“I don’t think the leader is going to be semis, so there are going to be areas where they see the benefit flowing out of semis, which is the biggest sector in the S&P right now,” said Ohsung Kwon, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo. “I still think a lot of that money is going to flow into other tech areas and healthcare.”