美国股指期货上涨，科技股领涨，油价下跌在经历了人工智能板块惨淡的一周后提供了喘息机会。
US equity futures advanced, led by technology shares, as falling oil prices offered relief after a bruising week for the artificial intelligence trade.
投资者将目光转向本周密集的潜在市场催化剂，包括10月制造业数据、苹果公司财报以及美国中期选举。
Investors are turning to a packed week of potential market catalysts, including October manufacturing data, Apple Inc.’s earnings and the US midterm elections.
截至纽约时间上午7:50，纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.6%，标普500指数期货上涨0.3%。据报道美国总统特朗普希望给予与伊朗的外交斡旋更多时间，原油价格下跌，缓解了市场的一个压力来源。
The Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6% and S&P 500 futures gained 0.3% as of 7:50 a.m. in New York. Crude prices fell after reports that US President Donald Trump wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time, easing one source of pressure on markets.
此次反弹是在科技股经历惨淡一周后出现的，因对人工智能投资热潮的成本和融资担忧在Alphabet公司财报发布后加剧。纳斯达克100指数承受了抛售的重压，上周收盘较10月峰值下跌约8%，接近技术性回调区间。
The rebound follows a punishing week for tech shares as concerns over the cost and financing of the AI investment boom intensified after Alphabet Inc.’s earnings. The Nasdaq 100 bore the brunt of the selloff, ending last week about 8% below its October peak and nearing a technical correction.
杰富瑞国际技术分析与策略主管Daniel Kirsche在周一致客户的报告中写道：“虽然大型科技股的疲软支持了我们关于市场拓宽和轮动的观点，但周五的抛售也引发了对我们更广泛市场前景的质疑。我们预期第四季度末将出现由市场广度改善主导的复苏，科技股最终将再次追赶上来。”随着中期选举临近，部分投资者看到乐观理由。过去一个月，市场一直在权衡共和党失去国会控制权的潜在后果，包括未来政策的不确定性及其对人工智能建设的影响。部分风险可能已反映在股价中。
“While the weakness in mega-cap technology has supported our broadening and rotation thesis, Friday’s selloff also raises questions about our broader market outlook,” Daniel Kirsche, head of technical analysis and strategy at Jefferies International wrote in a Monday client note. “Our expectation has been for a late-Q4 recovery led by improving market breadth, with technology eventually catching up again.”Some investors see reasons for optimism as the midterm elections approach. Markets have spent the past month weighing the potential consequences of Republicans losing control of Congress, including uncertainty over future policy and its implications for the AI buildout. Some of that risk may already be reflected in stock prices.
历史规律也提供支撑。据彭博分析，标普500指数在中期选举后往往会上涨，无论选举前表现如何。选举后期间的回报通常超过非选举期间，而分裂政府鲜有阻碍涨势。
Historical patterns also offer support. The S&P 500 Index has tended to rally after the midterms, regardless of its performance beforehand, according to an analysis by Bloomberg. Returns in the period following the vote have generally exceeded those in non-election periods, while divided government has done little to derail the advance.
根据摩根士丹利的数据，自1982年以来，在中期选举后的12个月里，半导体是标普100指数中表现最强劲的板块，其次是软件和硬件。
Semiconductors have been the strongest performing group in the S&P 100 in the 12 months following midterm elections since 1982, followed by software and hardware, according to Morgan Stanley data.
根据摩根大通市场情报部的情景分析，标普500指数在本周中期选举后更有可能上涨。摩根大通由安德鲁·泰勒领导的交易部门写道：“许多人担心在假设监管加强的情况下会出现AI抛售，但由于特朗普表示他不会签署任何限制AI扩张的法案，而民主党无法在国会两院都获得足以推翻总统否决的多数席位，因此很难实施任何政策。对于看好AI的人来说，如果出现回调，这将是一个逢低买入的机会。”
The S&P 500 is more likely to rise following this week’s midterms, according to a scenario analysis by JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence desk. “Many fear an AI selloff on assumed higher regulation but it will be difficult to implement any policies as Trump has stated that he will not sign any bills that limit AI expansion and Democrats cannot achieve a veto-proof majority in both chambers of Congress,” JPMorgan’s trading desk led by Andrew Tyler wrote. “For those bullish on AI, this is an opportunity to buy the dip should it present itself.”
摩根士丹利美国股票策略主管迈克·威尔逊认为，始于6月的回调正进入其“最后阶段”，市场广度正在改善。他指出了几个潜在的“清理事件”，这些事件可能引发另一轮下跌，并为投资者增加敞口创造机会。
Morgan Stanley head US equity strategist Mike Wilson sees the correction that began in June entering its “final innings,” with market breadth improving. He has identified several potential “clearing events” that could trigger another leg lower and create an opportunity for investors to add exposure.
苹果公司将于周一收盘后发布财报，届时将成为市场焦点。期权隐含股价在财报发布后将波动约4%，而平均实际财报日波动约为2.5%。这家iPhone制造商逆势摆脱了更广泛的科技股抛售，重夺全球市值最高公司的宝座，其与纳斯达克指数的三个月相关性已转为负值。
Apple will be in focus when it reports results after the market closes Monday. Options imply a roughly 4% move in the shares following earnings, compared with an average realized earnings-day move of about 2.5%. The iPhone maker has defied the broader tech rout and reclaimed its position as the world’s most valuable company, with its three-month correlation with the Nasdaq turning negative.
在企业新闻方面，由黑石集团牵头的投资者集团同意从三菱商事的子公司手中收购LNG Canada液化业务的股份，交易金额为31亿美元。《金融时报》报道，黑石还告知投资者，Anthropic PBC在上市后可能不会立即获得投资级信用评级。
In corporate news, a Blackstone Inc.-led investor group agreed to acquire a stake in LNG Canada’s liquefaction business from a Mitsubishi subsidiary for $3.1 billion. Blackstone has also told investors that Anthropic PBC may not receive an investment-grade credit rating immediately after going public, the Financial Times reported.
Anthropic正寻求从日本投资者那里在其美国首次公开募股（IPO）中筹集高达35亿美元，这增加了市场对这家AI初创企业进行里程碑式上市的预期，因为市场渴望新的股票发行。
Anthropic is seeking to raise as much as $3.5 billion from Japanese investors in its US initial public offering, adding to expectations for a landmark listing by the AI startup in a market hungry for new share offerings.
在其他方面，专注于尼日利亚市场的支付平台 OPay Ltd. 叫停了其在纽约证券交易所的首次公开募股（IPO），该 IPO 原定于周五开始交易，公司称此举是因监管调查。
Elsewhere, Nigeria-focused payments platform OPay Ltd. halted its New York Stock Exchange IPO, which had been due to begin trading Friday, citing a regulatory inquiry.