据Wolfe Research称，预期美国中期选举将成为股市清算事件的交易员，可能会发现自己面临着人工智能“忧虑之墙”，这可能阻碍市场进一步上涨。
Traders expecting the US midterm elections to be a clearing event for stocks may find themselves coming up against an artificial intelligence “wall of worry” that keeps the market from moving higher, according to Wolfe Research.
随着投资者更加关注人工智能建设，围绕该技术的交易已变成一个“让我看看”的故事，尽管中期选举本周很可能是股市最大的催化剂，Wolfe策略师Chris Senyek领衔的团队在周一发布的一份报告中写道。
Now that investors are focused more on AI buildout, the trade around the technology has become a “show me” story even as the midterms will likely be the biggest catalyst for stocks this week, Wolfe strategists led by Chris Senyek wrote in a note published on Monday.
他说，该“交易现在受制于技术交易因素，包括投资者锁定年度收益时出现的洗盘迹象”。
The “trade is now beholden to technical trading factors including signs of a wash-out as investors lock in gains for the year,” he said.
上周，纳斯达克100指数下跌约2%，受Alphabet Inc.和Amazon.com Inc.令人失望的财报拖累。Senyek预计，随着交易员评估超大规模云服务商的参差不齐的业绩，股市将继续横盘整理。根据Senyek的说法，Nvidia Corp.于11月17日发布的财报报告对人工智能交易“重获青睐”将“至关重要”。
Last week, the Nasdaq 100 Index slumped about 2%, dragged by disappointing earnings from Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. Senyek expects stocks to remain rangebound as traders assess mixed results from hyperscalers. Nvidia Corp.’s earnings report on Nov. 17 will “be critical” for the AI trade “to regain favor,” according to Senyek.
Senyek写道，股票指数“仍处于所谓的‘忧虑之墙’之后”，并补充称，最新的超大规模云服务商动态并非全是坏消息。
Stock indexes “remain behind a proverbial ‘wall of worry,’” Senyek wrote, adding that the latest hyperscaler developments haven’t been entirely bad.
Senyek指出，Anthropic PBC提交S-1招股书、微软公司的稳健业绩以及甲骨文公司积极的分析师日，都被Alphabet和Amazon所掩盖。Senyek表示，超大规模云服务商的执行失误在短期内可能继续拖累市场。
Senyek points out that Anthropic PBC releasing its S-1 filing, solid results from Microsoft Corp. and Oracle Corp.’s positive analyst day were overshadowed by Alphabet and Amazon. The execution failures of hyperscalers are likely to keep weighing in the near term, Senyek said.
尽管如此，周一股市抛售暂停，因为交易员将注意力转向结束中东战争的外交努力，这推动油价下跌并缓解了通胀担忧。
Still, the equity selloff paused Monday as traders turned their attention to diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East war, which drove oil prices lower and eased inflation concerns.
Senyek指出，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在中期选举后是否加大对伊朗的压力及其对油价的后续影响，是“地平线上最大的宏观不确定因素”。
Whether US President Donald Trump ramps up pressure on Iran after the midterm elections and the subsequent impact on oil prices is the “largest macro wildcard on the horizon,” Senyek noted.
摩根士丹利汇编的数据显示，自1950年以来，美国股市在每次中期选举后的六个月和十二个月均呈上涨走势。
US stocks have traded higher six and 12 months after every midterm vote since 1950, data compiled by Morgan Stanley show.
塞内克预计，中期选举后市场将持续上涨至年底，前提是油价保持稳定，且英伟达财报和安思克即将进行的首次公开募股（IPO）“证明是积极催化剂”。
Senyek expects the market to rise through the end of the year after the midterms as long as oil prices remain stable, Nvidia earnings and Anthropic’s upcoming initial public offering “prove to be positive catalysts.”
他还表示，过去30年来，11月以来股票历史上普遍上涨，而今年则取决于“上周AI宿醉持续多久”。沃尔夫研究公司的谨慎立场出现在华尔街策略师们试图描绘选举后股市走势之际。摩根士丹利美国股票策略主管迈克·威尔逊周一表示，始于数月前的股市修正已进入最后阶段，投资者应抓住机会承担风险。
He also said that starting in November stocks have historically over the last 30 years moved higher, this year it just depends on “how long the AI hangover from last week lasts.”Wolfe Research’s cautionary stance comes as strategists across Wall Street are trying to map out the stock market’s direction after the elections. Morgan Stanley’s head US equity strategist Mike Wilson said Monday that the stock market correction that began several months ago is in the final stage and investors should take advantage of opportunities to take risks.
