美国中期选举终于来临，但投资者怀疑这对市场影响不大，因为市场目前全神贯注于人工智能板块的风吹草动。早期民调和预测市场数据显示，民主党有望在众议院和参议院均赢得多数席位。这种结果可能对政府政策产生广泛影响，包括国防开支可能被削减——以及制药公司可能面临更大的定价压力。更重要的是，这可能塑造围绕数据中心的监管，而这对人工智能交易可能产生重大影响。
The U.S. midterm elections are finally here, but investors suspect it will matter little to a market that's preoccupied with rumblings in the artificial intelligence trade. Early polling and prediction markets data suggest Democrats have a shot at winning majorities in both the House and the Senate. Such an outcome could have wide-ranging implications for government policy, including a potential unwind in defense spending — and maybe greater pricing pressures on pharmaceutical companies. More importantly, it could shape regulation around data centers, which could be consequential for the artificial intelligence trade.
但投资者并不太担心周二的投票会对市场造成多大冲击，市场依然紧盯着人工智能交易和即将到来的财报季。“会有波动，”Siebert Financial 投资主管 Mark Malek 表示，“但我认为归根结底，目前还有许多其他宏观主题重要得多。”
But investors are not too worried that Tuesday's vote will do much to move the market, which remains pinned to the AI trade and incoming earnings. "There's going to be volatility," said Mark Malek, investment chief at Siebert Financial. "But I think at the end of the day, there's just so many other macro themes that are so much more important right now."
主要股指周五走向下跌周线，科技股在亚马逊和英特尔业绩令人失望后领跌。谷歌母公司 Alphabet 周四暴跌 12%，创下单日最大跌幅纪录，周五再跌 2.2%。iShares 半导体 ETF (SOXX) 本周迄今下跌 3.5%，此前在周初曾短暂反弹。该基金周五暴跌逾 10%。不过，标普 500 指数的 11 大板块大多有望录得周线上涨，因为交易员躲进医疗保健和日用消费品等防御板块寻求庇护。可口可乐和宝洁表现尤为突出。
The major averages were headed for a losing week on Friday, with tech stocks leading a sell-off following disappointing results from Amazon and Intel . Google-parent Alphabet also plunged 12% on Thursday, its worst one-day decline on record, and dropped another 2.2% on Friday. .SPX 5D mountain SPX 5-day chart The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) was down 3.5% week to date, after enjoying a brief resurgence at the start of the week. It tumbled more than 10% on Friday. Most of the 11 S & P 500 sectors were headed for weekly gains, however, as traders ducked for cover in things like health care and consumer staples. Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble were notable outperformers.
亚马逊成为继 Alphabet 和 Meta Platforms 之后，第三家报告自由现金流为负的超大规模云服务商。这加剧了投资者的担忧：最大科技公司债务上升可能预示着在金融环境收紧的背景下，小型公司面临更广泛的财务压力。
Amazon was the third hyperscaler after Alphabet and Meta Platforms to report negative free cash flow. That compounded investor worries that the rising debt of the biggest tech companies could signal broader financial stress among smaller companies while financial conditions tighten.
消息传出后，BTIG首席市场技术分析师Jonathan Krinsky再次警告称，标普500指数面临抛售风险。他认为该指数很快将考验其200日移动平均线（位于7306点），这意味着较周四收盘价将下跌逾5%。这一担忧将笼罩投资者，因为他们正在关注即将发布的财报。下周将有138家标普500成分股公司发布财报，其中包括苹果公司以及Palantir Technologies等其他主要AI公司。
Following the news, BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky warned again that the S & P 500 is vulnerable to a sell-off. He thinks the index will soon test its 200-day moving average, at 7,306, which represents a more than 5% slide from where it closed Thursday. That worry will loom over investors, as they watch for incoming earnings results. There are 138 S & P 500 companies set to report next week. That includes Apple and other major AI companies such as Palantir Technologies .
第三季度财报季表现强劲，但这并非得益于“美股七巨头”，后者近期表现几乎谈不上“巨头”。据FactSet数据，标普500指数第三季度盈利预计仍将增长约30%。然而，公司平均仅以1.4%的幅度超出盈利预期，远低于过去五年和十年的平均水平7.5%和8%。FactSet高级盈利分析师John Butters表示，这一下降几乎完全归因于Meta Platforms和Alphabet的财报令人失望。
The third-quarter earnings season has proven to be strong, but that's not thanks to the "Magnificent Seven" — which has hardly been magnificent of late . The S & P 500 is still projected to post earnings growth of about 30% for the third quarter, per FactSet. However, companies on average are only beating earnings expectations by 1.4%, far lower than both the five- and 10-year averages of 7.5% and 8%. That drop is almost entirely due to Meta Platforms' and Alphabet's disappointing reports, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet.
苹果财报超大规模云服务商业绩不佳，提高了苹果这只“七巨头”中脱颖而出的股票的赌注。iPhone制造商不仅是该组表现最好的股票——年内涨幅达28%——其市值也在逼近英伟达，并可能很快重夺全球市值最高上市公司的头衔。随着其备受关注的新款iPhone双机型于10月23日上市，苹果也开始证明自己在AI普及时代如何实现差异化，这可能有助于这家科技公司振兴其低迷的硬件业务。
Apple earnings Poor results from the hyperscalers raise the stakes for Apple, the Magnificent Seven stock that is breaking away from the pack. Not only is the iPhone maker the best performer of the group — shares are up 28% year to date — it's also zeroing in on Nvidia's market capitalization and could soon win back the title of the world's most valuable public company. Apple is also starting to prove how it can differentiate itself in an era of greater AI adoption, as its buzzy new iPhone Duo that hit stores Oct. 23 could help the tech company revive its flagging hardware business. On Friday, however, Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan warned there could be trouble on the horizon for Apple as well, with the bank removing the stock from its US1 list of best investment ideas. Mohan wrote that he has a "more conservative outlook" than the Street, given the potential impact that a staggered launch of iPhones could have on gross margins. 'Things that go bump in the night' There are other hurdles for the market ahead, including the October jobs report. While on the surface the labor market has continued to exhibit strength, there are widening chasms beneath that are worrisome for a consumer already beset with higher prices.
然而周五，美国银行分析师Wamsi Mohan也对苹果前景发出警告，该行将苹果从其“US1”最佳投资理念名单中移除。Mohan写道，鉴于iPhone错峰发布可能对毛利率产生的影响，他持有“比市场共识更保守的展望”。
The U.S. is expected to have added 55,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, per FactSet. That would be an improvement from the prior month when the employment picture worsened to just 29,000 nonfarm payrolls. Other macroeconomic threats in the form of higher interest rates and yields, greater inflation and oil prices, continue to persist.
“夜半惊魂” 市场前方还有其他障碍，包括十月就业报告。虽然表面上劳动力市场持续显示强劲，但表面之下裂痕正在扩大，令本已面临物价高企的消费者感到担忧。据 FactSet 数据，预计美国十月将新增 5.5 万个就业岗位，失业率维持在 4.2% 不变。这将优于上月，当时就业形势恶化，非农就业岗位仅增加 2.9 万个。
But many investors remain constructive on the market. Part of that has to do with the historical pattern. In data going back to 1934, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.8% in the eight trading days surrounding midterm election days, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. And seasonally speaking, traders are headed into the best six months on the calendar for the stock market. November is the No. 1 month for the Nasdaq during midterm election years, with the tech-heavy index rising 3.5% on average, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. It's the second best month for both the Dow and the S & P 500 in midterm election years; the indexes average monthly gains of 2.6% and 2.7%, respectively. "If you had to say today, 'Mark, are you buying or selling?'
以利率和收益率走高、通胀加剧和油价上涨形式出现的其他宏观经济威胁依然存在。但许多投资者对市场仍持建设性看法。部分原因在于历史规律。据《股票交易员年鉴》数据，追溯至 1934 年的数据显示，在中期选举日前后八个交易日里，道琼斯工业平均指数平均上涨 2.8%。从季节性角度看，交易者即将进入日历上股市表现最好的六个月。
I'm buying," Malek said, adding: "But just also increasing my inventory of things that go bump in the night." Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, Nov. 2 9:45 a.m. S & P Global PMI Manufacturing final (October) 10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (September) 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (October) Earnings: Apple , Clorox , Palantir Technologies , Vertex Pharmaceuticals , On Semiconductor , Diamondback Energy , Public Service Enterprise Group , Marriott International , The Estee Lauder Companies , Entergy Tuesday, Nov. 3 Election Day 8:55 a.m. Redbook (10/31) 10:00 a.m. Core Capital Goods Orders Growth Monthly final (September) 10:00 a.m. Durable Orders ex-Transportation final (September) 10:00 a.m. Durable Orders final (September) 10:00 a.m.
根据《股票交易员年鉴》，在中期选举年，十一月是纳斯达克指数表现最好的月份，这只科技股占比较重的指数平均上涨 3.5%。对道琼斯指数和标普 500 指数而言，十一月是中期选举年表现第二好的月份；这两个指数平均月度涨幅分别为 2.6% 和 2.7%。马莱克表示：“如果非要让我现在表态，‘马莱克，你是买还是卖？’我会买。”
Factory Orders (September) 10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (September) Earnings: Prudential Financial , Advanced Micro Devices , Block , Booking Holdings , Super Micro Computer , Mosaic , International Flavors & Fragrances , Arista Networks , Amgen , Assurant , American International Group , Sysco , Yum! Brands , Keurig Dr. Pepper , Broadridge Financial Solutions , Pfizer , Zebra Technologies , Apollo Global Management , DuPont de Nemours , Marathon Petroleum , Fiserv , Fidelity National Information Services , Expeditors International of Washington , Archer-Daniels-Midland Wednesday, Nov. 4 8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (October) 8:30 a.m. Trade Balance (September) 9:45 a.m. S & P Global PMI Composite final (October) 9:45 a.m. S & P Global PMI Services final (October) 10:00 a.m. ISM Services (October) Earnings: CF Industries , Costco Wholesale , Allstate , McKesson , TKO Group Holdings , Corpay , Applovin , Aflac , Expedia Group , Qualcomm , Texas Pacific Land Corp. , News Corp. , Motorola Solutions , MetLife , Host Hotels & Resorts , DoorDash , Coherent , Albemarle , APA , Edwards Lifesciences , Insulet , McDonald's , The Kraft Heinz Company , Datadog , Uber Technologies , Zimmer Biomet , CVS Health , Stanley Black & Decker , Martin Marietta Materials , Emerson Electric Thursday, Nov. 5 8:30 a.m.
他补充道：“但同时也在增加我的‘夜半惊魂’应对储备。” 本周日程表 所有时间均为美东时间。 周一，11 月 2 日 上午 9:45 标普全球制造业 PMI 终值（十月） 上午 10:00 建筑支出（九月） 上午 10:00 ISM 制造业指数（十月） 财报：苹果、克洛莱克斯、帕兰蒂尔科技、Vertex Pharmaceuticals、安森美半导体、Diamondback Energy、Public Service Enterprise Group、万豪国际、雅诗兰黛集团、Entergy 周二，11 月 3 日 选举日 上午 8:55 Redbook（10月31日） 上午10:00 核心资本货物订单月率终值（9月） 上午10:00 除运输设备外耐用品订单终值（9月） 上午10:00 耐用品订单终值（9月） 上午10:00 工厂订单（9月） 上午10:00 JOLTS职位空缺（9月） 财报：普信金融、超威半导体、Block、Booking Holdings、超微电脑、马赛克、国际香精香料、Arista Networks、安进、Assurant、美国国际集团、Sysco、百胜餐饮、Keurig Dr. Pepper、博德理金融解决方案、辉瑞、Zebra Technologies、阿波罗全球管理、杜邦、马拉松石油、Fiserv、富达国家信息服务、Expeditors International of Washington、阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰周三，11月4日 上午8:15 ADP就业调查（10月） 上午8:30 贸易差额（9月） 上午9:45 标普全球PMI综合终值（10月） 上午9:45 标普全球PMI服务业终值（10月） 上午10:00 ISM服务业（10月） 财报：CF Industries、Costco Wholesale、Allstate、McKesson、TKO Group Holdings、Corpay、Applovin、Aflac、Expedia Group、高通、Texas Pacific Land Corp.、News Corp.、Motorola Solutions、MetLife、Host Hotels & Resorts、DoorDash、Coherent、Albemarle、APA、Edwards Lifesciences、Insulet、McDonald's、The Kraft Heinz Company、Datadog、Uber Technologies、Zimmer Biomet、CVS Health、Stanley Black & Decker、Martin Marietta Materials、Emerson Electric周四，11月5日 上午8:30 持续申请失业金人数（10月24日当周） 上午8:30 初请失业金人数（10月31日当周） 上午8:30 单位劳动成本初值（第三季度）生产率初步数据（第三季度）财报：西蒙地产集团、戴文能源、Lumentum Holdings、Axon Enterprise、阿卡迈技术、永利度假村、微芯科技、Live Nation Entertainment、联合爱迪生、爱彼迎、Sempra、拉夫劳伦、派克汉尼汾、罗克韦尔自动化、杜克能源、康菲石油、Viatris、Global Payments、Tapestry、铁山、嘉德诺健康、金佰利、信诺集团、空气化工产品、DTE能源 11月6日星期五 上午8：30 非农就业报告（10月） 上午10：00 密歇根大学消费者信心初步数据（11月） 下午3：00 消费者信贷（9月） 财报：富兰克林资源、Vistra、特许通讯、哈门那、莫德纳
Continuing Jobless Claims (10/24) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (10/31) 8:30 a.m. Unit Labor Costs preliminary (Q3) 8:30 a.m. Productivity preliminary (Q3) Earnings: Simon Property Group , Devon Energy , Lumentum Holdings , Axon Enterprise , Akamai Technologies , Wynn Resorts , Microchip Technology , Live Nation Entertainment , Consolidated Edison , Airbnb , Sempra , Ralph Lauren , Parker-Hannifin , Rockwell Automation , Duke Energy , ConocoPhillips , Viatris , Global Payments , Tapestry , Iron Mountain , Cardinal Health , Kimberly-Clark , Cigna Group , Air Products & Chemicals , DTE Energy Friday, Nov. 6 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls Report (October) 10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (November) 3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit (September) Earnings: Franklin Templeton , Vistra , Charter Communications , Humana , Moderna