中期选举、财报、就业数据将考验对AI持谨慎态度的市场路易斯·克劳斯科夫报道纽约，10月30日——美国中期选举、密集的企业财报以及每月的就业报告将在下周进一步检验股票投资者，此前市场领头的AI交易已遭遇一系列挫折。
Midterm elections, earnings, jobs data loom for AI-wary market By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK, Oct 30 - US midterm elections, a heavy slate of corporate earnings and the monthly jobs report will further test stock investors next week, after a series of setbacks for the market-leading AI trade.
最新的AI动荡源于数据中心巨额支出的超大规模云服务商Alphabet的季度业绩。公司的现金消耗和令人失望的收入导致谷歌母公司股价在周四下跌超过12%，拖累主要股指。
The latest AI turbulence stemmed from the quarterly results of Alphabet, one of the hyperscalers spending massively on data centers. The company's cash burn and disappointing revenue led shares of the Google parent to tumble more than 12% on Thursday, dragging on major equity indexes.
Alphabet的报告标志着对支持AI投资主题所需融资的最新担忧，这一主题是美国牛市的核心——相关问题可能在未来几天持续存在。苹果、AMD和Palantir等主要科技和AI公司将在下周公布财报，而中期选举可能决定AI监管的前景。
Alphabet's report marked the latest concerns about financing needed to support the AI investment theme at the heart of the US bull stock market -- questions likely to persist in the coming days. Apple, AMD and Palantir are among the major tech and AI players due to report next week, while the midterms could determine the outlook for AI regulation.
“股市在我看来有点不安，我认为这真的源于对AI的担忧，这种担忧似乎在持续，甚至在加剧，”退休与财富服务提供商Empower的首席投资策略师玛塔·诺顿说。“本周的财报仍有一些需要消化的内容。”中期投票可能影响AI周二的选举将决定民主党能否从总统唐纳德·特朗普的共和党手中夺取国会控制权。普遍预测民主党将在众议院获胜，但参议院的形势更为不确定。共和党在特朗普政府的前两年控制了国会两院。
The stock market "seems a bit troubled to me, and I think that really stems from the AI fears that seem to be persistent, if not building," said Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at retirement and wealth services provider Empower. "There is still some digestion around what we saw with earnings this week." MIDTERM VOTE COULD AFFECT AI Tuesday's elections will determine whether Democrats can wrest control of Congress away from President Donald Trump's Republican party. Democrats are widely predicted to win the House of Representatives, but the Senate is more in doubt. Republicans controlled both chambers of Congress during the first two years of the Trump administration.
投资者正准备迎接针对数据中心日益高涨的反对声浪，数据中心对能源成本和环境的影响已引发强烈的公众反对。尽管有人怀疑任何可行的立法都会对人工智能投资构成严重风险——无论哪个党派获胜——但民主党大获全胜预计将带来更严格的审视。投资者也在关注周二得克萨斯州及其他地方的地方和州级选举，以判断其对数据中心建设的潜在影响。
Investors are bracing for increasing pushback on data centers, whose impact on energy costs and the environment has led to intense public opposition. Despite doubts that any viable legislation will pose serious risks to AI investment, regardless of which party wins, a Democratic sweep is expected to bring more scrutiny. Investors are also watching local and state races in Texas and elsewhere on Tuesday for their implications for the data-center buildout.
“如果民主党确实掀起显著的蓝色浪潮，我认为这将被视为对人工智能相关股票不利，某种程度上对整个科技板块也不利，甚至可能对整个市场都不利，”Cherry Lane Investments合伙人里克·梅克勒表示。
"To the extent that the Democrats really do have a significant blue wave, I think that will be seen as negative for both the AI names, for tech to some extent in general, and maybe even for the market as a whole," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments.
国防和医疗保健是另外两个可能对选举结果敏感的股市板块。华盛顿的任何变动都可能影响财政支出前景，进而波及资产价格。民主党大获全胜可能带来更多监管审查，包括对华尔街银行和加密货币公司。
Defense and healthcare are other stock market sectors that could be sensitive to the election results. Any shift in Washington could affect the outlook for fiscal spending that could reverberate through asset prices. A Democratic sweep could bring more regulatory scrutiny, including for Wall Street banks and crypto firms.
同样值得关注：苹果、AMD财报及就业数据。强劲的盈利表现支撑了2026年迄今的股市涨势。根据LSEG IBES周四的数据，随着标普500指数约半数成分股已公布第三季度业绩，该季度整体盈利有望增长31%。
ALSO ON TAP: APPLE, AMD RESULTS, JOBS DATA Robust earnings performance has underpinned equity gains so far in 2026. With about half of the S&P 500 having reported third-quarter results, overall earnings were on pace to rise 31% for the period, according to LSEG IBES data on Thursday.
投资者正在惩罚一些公司的财报。与Alphabet一样，卡特彼勒股价周四下跌9%，此前该公司尽管数据中心对其电力设备需求强劲，仍维持其年度销售增长预测不变。
Investors were punishing some reports. Along with Alphabet, Caterpillar shares sank 9% on Thursday after the company stuck to its annual sales growth forecast despite strong demand for its power equipment from data centers.
“盈利门槛非常高，”富兰克林坦佩尔顿研究所首席市场策略师克里斯·加利波（Chris Galipeau）说。“如果错过或跨不过这道门槛，你就会陷入困境。”苹果公司将在周一发布财报，截至目前，今年该公司股价已上涨28%。半导体公司AMD、Qualcomm以及提供另一种人工智能交易视角的Palantir的业绩也即将公布。麦当劳、安进和康菲石油等超过100家标普500指数成分公司将在下周陆续发布财报。
"The earnings bar is very high," said Chris Galipeau, head market strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute. "And if you miss or don't jump over that bar, you're in trouble." Apple reports on Monday, with the iPhone maker's shares up 28% so far this year. Results are also expected from semiconductor companies AMD and Qualcomm as well as Palantir, which offers another view of the AI trade. McDonald's, Amgen and ConocoPhillips are among over 100 S&P 500 companies that are due to report next week.
下周五公布的10月份就业报告将为美国经济健康状况提供关键解读。
Next Friday's employment report for October will give a critical read into the health of the US economy.
周四公布的数据显示，第三季度美国经济以一年以来最快的速度增长，消费者支出保持强劲，企业在人工智能方面的投资翻倍。本周美联储在维持利率不变的同时上调了对经济的评估。
Data on Thursday showed the US economy in the third quarter grew at its fastest pace in a year, as consumers maintained robust spending and businesses doubled down on investment in AI. The Federal Reserve this week upgraded its assessment of the economy as it held interest rates steady.
“我认为这段强劲经济增长叙事中缺失的环节是就业增长不足，”宏利约翰·汉考克投资公司联席首席投资策略师马修·米斯金（Matthew Miskin）说。
"I think the missing piece of this strong economic growth narrative is the lack of job growth," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments.
随着人工智能及相关技术股表现低迷，市场的其他板块填补了空缺。进入10月尾声，能源和金融板块以及公用事业和医疗保健等防御性板块都有望实现稳健的月度涨幅。标普500指数截至目前10月份上涨约1%，全年累计涨幅超过12%。“市场的广度远超人们普遍给予的评价，”加利波说。
As AI and related technology stocks have struggled, other areas of the market have picked up the slack. As October winds down, the energy and financial sectors were set for solid monthly gains, as were defensive groups such as utilities and healthcare. The S&P 500 was last up about 1% for October and over 12% on the year. "The market is much more broad than people generally want to give it credit for," Galipeau said.