股市目前形势不容乐观。周四，在Alphabet公布第三季度业绩未达分析师预期后，主要股指承压。该财报导致Google和YouTube母公司Alphabet早盘下跌9%，投资者和分析师担心随着人工智能日益普及，Alphabet的前景堪忧。另一家因投资数据中心而被视为AI相关股的Caterpillar（卡特彼勒）也暴跌9%，因其建筑行业业务收入略低于预期。
It's not looking good for stocks right now. The major equity benchmarks were under pressure Thursday after Alphabet reported third-quarter results that missed analyst expectations. The report drove down the Google and YouTube owner by 9% in early trading, with investors and analysts worried about Alphabet's future as artificial intelligence becomes more prevalent. Caterpillar, another AI-adjacent name thanks to investment in data centers, also tumbled 9% after revenue in its construction industries business came in slightly below estimates.
对AI交易可持续性的担忧导致市场波动加剧。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）本月早些时候触及22.31高位——这是自6月以来未见的水平。然而，花旗策略师Scott Chronert对其看涨前景依然坚定。他在周三晚间的一份报告中重申了标普500指数年底8100点的目标位。这比周三收盘价高出4.6%。“总体而言，我们继续看到标普500指数在年底前走高的路径，”他说。
Concerns around the sustainability of the AI trade have led to increased market volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) hit a high of 22.31 earlier this month — a level not seen since June. Yet Citigroup strategist Scott Chronert remains undeterred in his bullish outlook. In a note late Wednesday, he reiterated his 8,100 year-end S & P 500 target. That's 4.6% above Wednesday's close. "All in, we continue to see a path higher for the S & P 500 into year end," he said.
虽然Chronert指出，他的2026年预测“目前看来似乎激进”，但尽管面临AI公司债务发行增加等障碍，基准指数“仍有可能”攀升至新高。“发行既有积极也有消极的一面，但我们看到年底前有积极跟进的空间。具体而言，过去几天的价格走势表明，市场对成功发行做出了积极反应，因为这增强了对半导体基本面的信心；同时，资本支出言论的适度缓和可能被解读为减轻了发行压力，”他说。
And while Chronert noted that his 2026 forecast seems "aggressive at this point," it is "still possible" for the benchmark to scale new heights despite hurdles such as increased debt issuance from AI companies. "Issuance has both a positive and negative spin to it, but we see room for positive follow through into year end. Namely, the past few days' price action suggests a positive response to both successful issuance as it provides confidence in semi fundies as well as to modest moderation in capex commentary which may be interpreted as taking some pressure off of issuance," he said.
尽管如此，美联储12月潜在的加息使股市上行之路变得复杂。不过，富国投资研究院全球固定收益联席主管Luis Alvarado认为，经济足够强劲，能够应对更紧缩的货币政策。“我们继续预期，即使增长放缓，美国经济也将在2027年前证明其韧性。
Still, a potential Federal Reserve rate hike in December complicates the path higher for stocks. Yet, Luis Alvarado, Wells Fargo Investment Institute co-head of global fixed income, thinks the economy is strong enough to handle tighter monetary policy. "We continue to expect the U.S. economy to prove resilient through 2027 even as growth slows.
“消费者支出保持强劲，而充足的市场流动性和有利的银行贷款条件应当能提供支撑。企业盈利强劲，企业继续投资于人工智能、基础设施和其他提高生产力的技术，”他说。
Consumer spending has remained buoyant while adequate market liquidity and supportive bank lending conditions should provide support. Corporate earnings have been strong, and businesses continue to invest in AI, infrastructure, and other productivity-enhancing technologies," he said.