管理层正在探索利用预测市场为其交易策略提供参考的途径，加入越来越多涉足这一领域的华尔街公司行列。
Management is exploring ways to use prediction markets to inform its trading strategies, joining a growing roster of Wall Street firms dipping their toes into the space.
据知情人士透露，这家总部位于纽约的投资公司正在为投资组合经理开发工具，以便利用Polymarket和Kalshi Inc.等预测市场平台的数据，作为跨传统资产类别的交易信号。这些人士表示，Millennium目前正在研究这些数据的用途，但尚未交易预测市场合约。由于讨论的是私人信息，这些人士要求匿名。
The New York-based investment firm is building out tools for its portfolio managers to utilize data from prediction markets venues such as Polymarket and Kalshi Inc. as a trading signal across traditional asset classes, according to people familiar with the matter. While Millennium is examining uses for the data, it is not currently trading prediction markets contracts, the people said, asking not to be named while discussing private information.
其中一位人士表示，该公司的一些经理已表示有兴趣使用与地缘政治、经济和大宗商品结果相关的市场数据。
Some of the firm’s managers have expressed interest in using data from markets tied to geopolitical, economic and commodities outcomes, one of the people said.
Millennium和Kalshi的发言人拒绝置评。Polymarket的发言人未回应置评请求。
Spokespeople for Millennium and Kalshi declined to comment. Spokespeople for Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.
预测市场允许交易者对体育比赛、颁奖典礼和选举等现实世界事件进行二元押注，每月吸引数百亿美元的名义交易量。包括Susquehanna International Group和Jump Trading在内的做市商是该领域的早期进入者，而AQR Capital Management则在夏季寻求扩大其专注于预测市场的量化研究团队。
Prediction markets allow traders to place binary bets on real-world events like sports games, awards shows and elections, attracting tens of billions of dollars in notional trading volume each month. Market makers including Susquehanna International Group and Jump Trading were early entrants into the space, while AQR Capital Management sought to expand its prediction markets-focused quantitative research team over the summer.
尽管如此，许多华尔街公司迄今仍避免直接参与事件合约的押注，因为该行业被认为存在法律、监管和声誉问题。Kalshi和其他公司正在数十个州就体育合约是否应作为赌博进行监管而打官司，而涉嫌内幕交易的案件也困扰着围绕伊朗战争、政治和企业事件的高关注度市场。Kalshi和Polymarket的服务条款禁止在其平台上使用内幕信息。
Still, many Wall Street firms have so far avoided participating directly in wagering on event contracts because of the industry’s perceived legal, regulatory and reputational issues. Kalshi and other companies are fighting lawsuits in dozens of states over whether sports contracts should be regulated as gambling, while alleged insider trading cases have dogged high-profile markets around the Iran war, politics and corporate events. Kalshi and Polymarket’s terms of service ban the use of inside information on their platforms.
预测市场平台渴望吸引更多机构资金，以摆脱以散户为主的客户群体，数据合作伙伴关系常被视为切入途径。该行业的大部分交易量源于体育相关押注，但平台正迅速增加新合约以吸引华尔街，例如与黄金、石油和通胀指标挂钩的期货。
Prediction market venues are keen to attract more institutional capital to grow beyond their retail-dominated customer base, with data partnerships often viewed as an introductory path. Much of the industry’s volume stems from sports-related bets, though platforms are rapidly adding new contracts to appeal to Wall Street, such as futures tied to gold, oil and inflation gauges.
近期研究发现，预测市场交易者有时比机构同行更准确。Wolfe Research 4 月发布的报告称，押注某公司是否会超越盈利预期的投注者，正确率往往高于市场常态。今年早些时候，纽约联储发布的另一份报告显示，Kalshi 对美联储政策和经济数据的预测与专业人士的预测“大致一致”。
Recent research has found prediction markets traders can sometimes be more accurate than their institutional counterparts. Bettors speculating on whether a company will exceed earnings estimates are often correct at a rate above the market norm, a report by Wolfe Research said in April. Another, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York earlier this year, showed Kalshi’s forecasting of Fed policy and economic data was “roughly consistent” with that of professionals.
Millennium 在近几个月扩大交易业务之际，募集了创纪录的 220 亿美元新增资金。该公司管理资产 970 亿美元，截至 9 月底收益率为 8.1%。
Millennium raised a record $22 billion in new cash as it expanded its trading operations in recent months. The firm manages $97 billion in assets and was up 8.1% through September.