非洲商业玉米种植户计划将种植面积削减至2019年以来的最低水平，原因是投入成本上升以及对全国夏季月份出现干旱的预期形成挤压。
African commercial corn farmers plan to cut plantings to the smallest area since 2019, squeezed by higher input costs and expectations of a drought during the nation’s summer months.
作物估产委员会周二发布了下一季种植意向的首份报告。报告称，农民打算在2027季种植约240万公顷玉米，比上年减少12.4%，比五年平均水平低约10%。
Farmers intend to plant corn on about 2.4 million hectares of land in the 2027 season, down 12.4% from the previous year and roughly 10% below the five-year average, the Crop Estimates Committee said in its first report on intentions to plant for the next season released on Tuesday.
白玉米是南非及整个地区的主食，将首当其冲受到削减影响，农民计划将其种植面积减少18.2%。委员会表示，主要用于动物饲料的黄玉米种植面积预计将缩减3.1%。
White corn, a staple food in South Africa and across the region, will bear the brunt of the cut, with farmers planning to reduce plantings by 18.2%. The area devoted to yellow corn, used mainly for animal feed, is expected to shrink by 3.1%, the committee said.
中东持续冲突导致化肥和燃料等关键农业投入品价格飙升。农民还面临厄尔尼诺可能引发干旱所带来的压力。
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has caused prices of key agricultural inputs such as fertilizer and fuel to surge. Farmers are also facing pressures from a possible El Niño-induced drought.
南非农业商会首席经济学家万迪莱·西赫洛博在一份报告中写道，除其他因素外，这些因素“影响着农民对种植季的决定”。
These factors, among others, “influence farmers’ decisions about the planting season,” Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, wrote in a note.
他还在周一发布于X平台的一篇帖子中警告称，迫在眉睫的干旱可能在2027年第一季度末推高南非的食品价格通胀。这可能影响利率。
He also warned in a post on X on Monday that the looming drought could push up South African food-price inflation by the end of the first quarter of 2027. That could impact interest rates.
央行在最新一期《货币政策评估》中表示，将果断采取行动，防止燃料和厄尔尼诺相关食品价格上涨推高通胀预期并传导至工资制定。
The central bank said in its latest Monetary Policy Review that it will act decisively to prevent higher fuel and El Niño-related food prices from lifting inflation expectations and feeding into wage-setting.