威廉·佩塞克（William Pesek）是一位屡获殊荣、常驻东京的记者，也是《日本化：世界能从日本的失落年代学到什么》（“Japanization: What the World Can Learn from Japan's Lost Decades.”）一书的作者。全球经济排行榜即将迎来一次重大洗牌。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）的预测，印度将于2027年在国内生产总值（GDP）方面超越日本，将这个曾经的超级大国进一步推向排名靠后的位置。
William Pesek is an award-winning Tokyo-based journalist and author of "Japanization: What the World Can Learn from Japan's Lost Decades." The global economic leaderboard is about to get a significant reshuffle. According to International Monetary Fund projections, India will overtake Japan in gross domestic product terms in 2027, pushing the one-time superpower further down the rankings.
排名榜很少能讲透全貌，但这一榜单捕捉到了一个深刻的转变：世界经济重心正从老龄化的发达经济体转向更年轻、增长更快的“全球南方”国家。随着动荡的一年进入冲刺阶段，这也讲述了三个值得关注的故事。
League tables rarely tell the whole story, but this one captures a profound shift: The world's economic center of gravity is moving from aging advanced economies toward younger, faster-growing "Global South" nations. It also tells three stories worth watching as a chaotic year enters the homestretch.
首先是日本。15年多过去了，被中国超越的刺痛感并未真正消退。东京曾在“人均收入才是关键”这一论点中寻找安慰，并继续前行。但日本长期视自己为发展中邻国环伺中的首屈一指的第一世界强国，眼睁睁看着印度飞速超越，将感觉像是又一次重创。中国于2010年率先超越，随后是德国。如今印度和英国接连出拳，将日本推至全球第六位。
First, Japan. More than 15 years on, the sting of being passed by China hasn't really faded. Tokyo found comfort in the argument that per capita income is what matters, and carried on. But Japan has long seen itself as the premier first-world power in a developing neighborhood, and watching India zoom by will feel like a fresh blow. China pulled ahead in 2010, then Germany. Now India and the U.K. deliver a one-two punch, knocking Japan to No. 6 globally.
日本正字面意义上地变得“更小”了。其1.22亿人口构成发达世界中老龄化最快、萎缩最快的人口结构，造成了严重的劳动力短缺，而低水平的移民无法缓解这一问题。招致国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织（OECD）不满的生产率困境依然存在，这也是日本必须拥抱并实现人工智能和机器人技术商业化的原因。
Japan is literally getting smaller. Its 122 million people make up the fastest-aging, fastest-shrinking population in the developed world, creating acute labor shortages that low immigration won't ease. Productivity woes that draw the ire of the IMF and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development persist, which is why Japan must embrace and commercialize artificial intelligence and robotics.
尽管如此，4.3万亿美元规模的经济体依然举足轻重。日本是世界最大债权国、主要的对外投资来源国，也是全球最大政府养老基金的所在地。它在机械、电池、工业自动化和先进材料领域是技术强国。它可以说是全球顶级旅游目的地，以漫画、动画和电子游戏为代表的“酷日本”（“Cool Japan”）无处不在。
Still, a $4.3 trillion economy matters. Japan is the world's largest creditor nation, a major source of foreign investment and home to the largest government pension fund anywhere. It is a tech powerhouse in machinery, batteries, industrial automation and advanced materials. It is arguably the top global tourist destination, and "Cool Japan," in the form of manga, anime and video games, is everywhere.
它也是亚洲关键的地缘政治大国，是华盛顿、布鲁塞尔和伦敦前来商讨战争、和平与繁荣的地方。即使美国总统唐纳德·特朗普似乎比与首相高市早苗的关系更看重与中国国家主席习近平的关系，这一角色依然存在。
It is also Asia's critical geopolitical power, the place where Washington, Brussels and London come to discuss war, peace and prosperity. That role remains even as U.S. President Donald Trump appears more invested in his relationship with China's Xi Jinping than with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
第二，印度。在中国颠覆了投资者对全球经济原有认知的一切之后，理清局势最简单的方法是追踪谁在上升、谁在下降。凭借7%的增长率、世界最多人口以及大力推动成为制造业中心，印度符合上升类别的每一个指标。
Second, India. After China upended everything investors thought they knew about the global economy, the easiest way to make sense of things is to track who is rising and who is falling. With 7% growth, the world's largest population and a big push to become a manufacturing hub, India checks every box in the upward category.
10月20日，在新德里的一处场地举行的十胜节庆祝活动中，人们在燃烧的蟑螂塑像旁奔跑。
People run as an effigy of a cockroach burns during Dussehra celebrations at a ground in New Delhi on Oct. 20.
印度正处于“下一个十年属于拥有年轻人口、不断扩大的消费市场和胸怀大志的领导人的国家”这一论断的核心地带。如果2027年如国际货币基金组织预期那样展开，将证明经济学家吉姆·奥尼尔25年前构想的“金砖四国”（巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）是正确的。后来南非加入，在该名称后增添了一个“S”。
India sits at ground zero of the thesis that the next decade belongs to countries with youth, swelling consumer markets and leaders thinking big. If 2027 unfolds as the IMF expects, it will vindicate economist Jim O'Neill, who imagined the "BRIC" nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China), 25 years ago. They were later joined by South Africa, adding an "S" to the moniker.
当然，规模不是一切；袖珍国家新加坡的表现远超资源丰富的印度尼西亚，后者经济体量是前者的2.2倍。尽管如此，这种夸耀的资本将让总理纳伦德拉·莫迪风光一时。这可能吸引更多全球资本，强化印度作为“中国加一”首选经济体的理由，并将更多供应链引入南亚。
Of course, size isn't everything; Tiny Singapore far outpunches resource-rich Indonesia, an economy 2.2 times larger. Still, the bragging rights will make Prime Minister Narendra Modi's year. They could draw more global capital, strengthen his case for India as the "China-plus-one" economy of choice and pull more supply chains through South Asia.
印度在国际货币基金组织、世界银行和二十国集团也将拥有更大话语权，重组七国集团的理由也愈发充分，因为印度不同于中国，是一个民主国家。印度的崛起表明，一个经济活力分散在更多市场和地区的多极体系正在形成。
India would also gain a bigger voice at the IMF, World Bank and Group of 20, and the case for reshuffling the Group of Seven grows stronger, since India, unlike China, is a democracy. India's arrival suggests a multipolar system, with economic energy spread across more markets and regions, is taking hold.
第三，来自东京和新德里的反应。变数在于，被印度和英国双双超越，是否会推动高市早苗领导的自由民主党对日本僵化的经济进行改造。
Third, the response from Tokyo and New Delhi. The wildcard is whether being leapfrogged by both India and Britain pushes Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party to retool Japan's rigid economy.
人们曾高度期待她的导师安倍晋三能够兑现承诺。在2012年至2020年的首相任期内，他在公司治理方面确实取得了实质性进展，但他削减官僚主义、现代化劳动力市场、重振创新、提高生产率和吸引全球人才的承诺，却因日元疲软和量化宽松政策而被搁置。高市团队如今正为此付出代价，石油进口成本激增。日本终于迎来了通胀，但幅度过大、速度过快。
Hopes ran high that her mentor, Shinzo Abe, would deliver. During his 2012-2020 premiership he made real progress on corporate governance, but his pledges to cut bureaucracy, modernize labor markets, rekindle innovation, raise productivity and attract global talent were sidelined by a weak yen and quantitative easing. Team Takaichi now pays the price, with oil import costs surging. Japan finally has inflation, but too much, too fast.
如果自民党当时行动更果断，东京或许就不会只能旁观中国电动汽车制造商如比亚迪和人工智能创新者如深度求索抢占先机。另一个警钟正在敲响。自民党能否比2010年代初做出更好的回应？
Had the LDP acted more boldly, Tokyo might not be watching from the sidelines as Chinese electric-vehicle makers like BYD and AI innovators like DeepSeek take the lead. Another wake-up call is coming. Will the LDP answer it better than it did in the early 2010s?
日本央行可以帮助倒逼改革。长期维持的廉价货币政策是自民党拖延脚步的原因之一。周五，植田和男行长领导的董事会普遍预计将把基准利率维持在1.25%，这是31年来的高点。更快的利率常态化进程可能会加速推动建设经济实力所需的立法举措。
The Bank of Japan can help force the issue. Semi-permanent cheap money is one reason the LDP drags its feet. On Friday, Gov. Kazuo Ueda's board is widely expected to hold its benchmark at 1.25%, a 31-year high. Faster normalization could hasten the legislative moves needed to build economic muscle.
对印度而言，是时候拿出实际行动，而非空谈。自2014年以来，莫迪大谈竞争力。公正地说：他向外资进一步开放了国防、金融服务、保险、零售和交通运输领域。但与前任一样，他很少用实际成果来兑现言辞。他的“印度制造”运动于2014年启动，比习近平的“中国制造2025”早了一年，旨在将制造业占GDP比重提升至25%并创造数百万个就业岗位。制造业占比至今仍仅徘徊在16%至17%。
For India, it is time to show, not tell. Since 2014, Modi has talked a big game about competitiveness. Credit where due: He opened defense, financial services, insurance, retail and transportation to more foreign investment. But like his predecessors, he rarely backs rhetoric with results. His 2014 Make in India campaign, a year before Xi's Made in China, aimed to lift manufacturing to 25% of GDP and create millions of jobs. Manufacturing still sits at just 16% to 17%.
与此同时，莫迪一直向印度储备银行施压以维持低利率，这在一定程度上导致卢比成为亚洲表现最差的货币之一。卢比是2025年该地区最疲软的货币，贬值了5%，今年又下跌了5.6%，这与莫迪1月份所称的“金发姑娘经济”的豪言不符。在新德里备受全球瞩目、投资者密切关注之际，莫迪应当利用当前强劲的增长来收窄印度双重的财政赤字和经常账户赤字，同时加快改革，创造数以百万计的高薪就业岗位。否则，该国备受吹嘘的人口红利将变成负担。
Meanwhile, Modi has leaned on the Reserve Bank of India to keep rates low, helping make the rupee one of Asia's worst performers. It was the region's weakest currency in 2025, losing 5%, and is down another 5.6% this year, belying Modi's January boast of a "Goldilocks economy." With New Delhi in the global spotlight and investors watching closely, Modi should use today's strong growth to narrow India's twin fiscal and current-account deficits while accelerating reforms that create millions of well-paying jobs. Otherwise, the country's much-vaunted demographic dividend becomes a liability.
看看印度的“蟑螂”运动。据报道，首席大法官苏里亚·康德将失业的印度年轻人称为“蟑螂”和“寄生虫”后，最初的学生静坐示威演变成了更广泛的抗议呼声。Z世代传递的信息很明确：没有体面的工作和不断上涨的工资，增长毫无意义。莫迪应将其本身视为一项经济指标。
Consider India's "cockroach" movement What began as a student sit-in grew into a broader rallying cry after Chief Justice Surya Kant reportedly called unemployed young Indians "cockroaches" and "parasites." Gen Z's message is stark: Growth means little without decent jobs and rising wages. Modi should treat it as an economic indicator in its own right.
国际货币基金组织的排名表与其说是裁决，不如说是挑战。日本必须证明自己能在人口下降的情况下逆经济规律而行，而印度必须证明快速增长能够转化为就业、生产率和持久财富。两个经济体都没有多少时间可以浪费。
The IMF's league table is less a verdict than a challenge. Japan must prove it can defy economic gravity despite demographic decline, while India must prove that rapid growth can translate into jobs, productivity and lasting wealth. Either economy has little time to waste.