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克里斯·梅森:伯纳姆在接下来100天面临关键抉择Chris Mason: Burnham faces crunch decisions in his next 100 days

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首相面前即将出现若干问题There are several issues on the horizon for the prime minister

盖蒂图片社 首相面前有几道难题 克里斯·梅森 政治编辑 2026年10月26日 对首相的新政府来说,这感觉像是关键考验到来的一周。

Getty Images There are several issues on the horizon for the prime minister Chris Mason Political editor 26 October 2026 This feels like the week where the rubber hits the road for the prime minister's new government.

距离安迪·伯纳姆从白金汉宫抵达唐宁街并开始组建内阁,如今已过去100天。

It is now 100 days since Andy Burnham arrived in Downing Street from Buckingham Palace and began to assemble his cabinet.

三个月后,工党议员们士气更为高涨,该党的民调支持率有所上升,政府的基调和风格也与基尔·斯塔默爵士主政时大不相同。

Three months later, Labour MPs are more chipper, the party's poll ratings have notched up and the tone and style of government feels very different from when Sir Keir Starmer was in charge.

然而接下来,将有一系列棘手的决定和取舍——经济上的和政治上的——其中一些不可避免,另一些则是伯纳姆决定主动迎上的。

Coming next, though, there are a whole series of crunchy decisions and trade offs – economic and political – some of which are inevitable and some of which Burnham has decided to lean into.

首先是预算案 如果你刚刚才意识到本周有一份预算案,那也情有可原。

First up, the Budget You would be forgiven for only just clocking there is a Budget this week.

今年的预算案之所以感觉相对低调,原因有三:它比一年前提前了一个月,压缩了简报、泄密和猜测的空间。从大局来看,它的规模要小得多——换句话说,就是增税的幅度——因此限制了事先关于谁可能受到冲击的喧闹议论。而且新任财政大臣约翰·希利及其团队力求把事先少说话变成一种美德。

There are three reasons for this year's feeling like a comparatively low key affair: it is happening a month earlier than a year ago, squeezing the space available for briefings, leaks and speculation. It is considerably smaller in big picture terms – in other words the scale of tax rises – so limiting the noisy talk in advance about who might get clobbered. And the new chancellor John Healey and his team have sought to make a virtue out of not saying very much beforehand.

但要是向任何参与编制这份预算案的人暗示它是一份稳扎稳打、没什么可看的东西,那可就犯了大忌。

But woe betide suggesting to anyone involved in assembling this Budget that it is a steady-as-she-goes, nothing-to-see-here thing.

有人向我提出的论点是,每一份预算案都事关重大。它们不必都像近几年某些预算案那样大到从太空都能看见——想想四年前夸西·克沃滕朝一个方向、杰里米·亨特朝另一个方向的做法,或者过去两年雷切尔·里夫斯的做法。

Every Budget is a big deal, goes the argument run past me by some. They don't all have to be visible from space in the way some recent ones have been – think Kwasi Kwarteng in one direction followed by Jeremy Hunt in the other four years ago, or Rachel Reeves in the last two years.

为部分人提供生活成本支持、帮助创业者、赋予英格兰市长更多财政权力,以及一个正在复苏的经济,将是希利周三的主题。

Cost of living support for some, help for entrepreneurs, more financial clout for mayors in England and an economy now recuperating will be themes for Healey on Wednesday.

这份预算案的分量——它对你的价值,或者说对你缺乏价值——不久就将由你来评判。

You will be the judge of this Budget's scale – its value, or the lack of it to you – before long.

接下来是英国脱欧——以及我们与欧盟的关系。近年来,许多(但并非所有)政界人士处理脱欧问题的方式,就像你我面对电网一样:避免靠得太近,万不得已时,小心翼翼地翻过去。

Next, Brexit – and our relationship with the EU In recent years, many but not all politicians have approached the issue of Brexit like you or I might approach an electric fence. Avoid getting too close and, if needs must, climb over it gingerly.

伯纳姆没有这样的顾虑:过去几周他反复表示,让我们谈谈脱欧吧。他认为英国与欧盟目前的协议还不够好。

Burnham has no such reservations: he has repeatedly said in the last few weeks, let's talk about Brexit. He reckons the current deal between the UK and European Union isn't good enough.

上周末他更进一步,暗示希望就人员自由流动展开“坦诚讨论”。加入欧盟单一市场的国家必须接受人员自由流动,这允许人们在所有成员国居住和工作。鉴于移民问题在2016年欧盟公投中对许多人而言是何等重要,即便是重新提出人员自由流动的问题,也让人觉得是件大事。

Over the weekend he went further, suggesting he wanted an "honest discussion" about freedom of movement. Countries in the EU's single market have to sign up to freedom of movement, which lets people live and work in all the countries that are part of it. Given how big a deal immigration was for many in the EU referendum in 2016, even reopening the question of freedom of movement feels like a big deal.

周一上午,首相似乎补充了更多细节,暗示人员自由流动只有在英国经过公投批准后才会恢复。

On Monday morning, the prime minister appeared to add more detail, suggesting freedom of movement would only return in the UK having been sanctioned in a referendum.

不过,随后他的团队不愿重复这一说法,而是强调伯纳姆希望开启一场广泛的讨论——在现阶段不承诺任何可能的结果。

Later, though, his team wouldn't repeat that instead emphasising that Burnham wants to start a broad based conversation – without at this point committing to any possible outcome.

他的一些议员认为,这是他自找的麻烦,本可避免。另一些人则认为,伯纳姆喜欢公开叙述自己的想法和可能的方向,从而利用自己的地位试图主导政治辩论,这有其可取之处。

Some of his MPs felt this was a self-inflicted tangle he could have done without. Others see merit in Burnham's penchant for narrating his thoughts and possible direction publicly, thereby using his position to seek to dominate the political debate.

尽管工党的重心倾向于一种集体本能,即与欧盟建立更紧密的关系比维持现状更可取,但在紧密到什么程度以及何时推进才算明智的问题上,各方存在侧重点的差异,甚至 outright 分歧。

While the Labour Party's centre of gravity tilts towards a collective instinct that a closer relationship with the EU would be preferable to the status quo, there are differences of emphasis and indeed outright disagreements about how much closer and when would be wise.

英国北部和中部地区支持脱欧的工党议员私下对任何过于热情拥抱布鲁塞尔的表现都感到不安。内政部长沙拉巴·马哈穆德公开表示,呼吁进行坦诚讨论“并不等同于既定政策”。

Some Labour MPs representing seats in the north of England and Midlands, which backed Brexit, are privately nervous about anything coming across as too enthusiastic an embrace of Brussels. A nod to that scepticism appeared to come publicly from Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood who noted that a call for an honest discussion is "not the same as settled policy".

她补充说:“首相还指出,在欧盟内部时,人员自由流动存在非常重大的问题。坦诚讨论意味着真正就辩论的所有方面保持诚实,而不是挑选有利部分。”

She added: "The prime minister has also observed that there were very significant issues with freedom of movement when we were within the EU. An honest debate means actually being honest about all of the aspects of that debate and not cherry-picking." Next month, there will be a UK-EU Summit in Brussels, which was due to happen in the summer but was postponed when Sir Keir Starmer resigned.

下个月,将举行一次英国-欧盟峰会,原定于夏季举行,但当时因基尔·斯塔默辞职而推迟。

We can expect both sides to talk up tweaks to the current deal and the government to also, in time, set out options for what the long term relationship might look like.

双方预计都会强调对现有协议的微调,政府也将在适当时候提出长期关系的各种选项。

On the detail, there are divisions from the cabinet and down. The key thing will be what the party decides to include or not in its next general election manifesto.

在细节问题上,内阁内部以及内阁以下都存在分歧。关键问题将是该党在下届大选宣言中决定纳入或排除的内容。

The question of North Sea oil Last week, Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh approved drilling in the Jackdaw field in the North Sea, about 150 miles east of Aberdeen.

北海石油问题上周,能源部长迈塔塔·法恩布尔批准在北海Jackdaw油田进行钻探,该油田位于 Aberdeen 以东约150英里处。

This is principally a gas field and Fahnbulleh grounded her justification in providing the UK with greater energy security, at a time of war in Ukraine and in the Middle East.

这主要是天然气田,法恩布尔以在乌克兰和中东战争时期为英国提供更大的能源安全为由,为其决定提供了依据。

The gas, she said, could be tapped into and serve British homes and businesses pretty much straight away, with the tax revenue put into an "energy wealth fund", with the aim being to invest in renewable and low carbon energy projects.

她说,天然气可以立即开采并服务于英国的家庭和企业,税收收入将被投入到一个“能源财富基金”中,目标是投资于可再生和低碳能源项目。

But what about the Rosebank field 80 miles north west of the Shetland islands, with its focus on oil?

但关于 Rosebank 油田呢——它位于设得兰群岛以北80英里的地方,专注于石油开采。

Labour figures in and outside government acknowledge this is a much, much harder sell to plenty in their own party and beyond. Some, who want to see the project go ahead, fear that the energy secretary is not likely to be convinced that it should.

工党内外的要员都承认,要在党内乃至党外说服许多人接受这一项目,难度大得多。一些希望项目推进的人士担心,能源大臣不太可能被说服认为该项目应当获批。

It is in that context that we should see allies of the chancellor pointedly making it known that he is in favour of it.

正是在此背景下,我们应当理解财政大臣的盟友刻意透露他支持该项目。

His public language was quite telling on the day Jackdaw was approved, when he was talking about the Energy Wealth Fund: "It means the extra tax revenues that come from North Sea oil and gas can be directed into developing more clean energy projects for the future." Note his reference to oil. Fahnbulleh said that Rosebank was "a different proposition" to Jackdaw.

财政大臣在“杰克道”油气田获批当天的公开表态颇耐人寻味,他在谈及“能源财富基金”时表示:“这意味着来自北海油气的额外税收收入可以被导向开发更多面向未来的清洁能源项目。”请注意他对石油的提及。法恩布勒表示,“罗斯班克”油田“与杰克道是完全不同的提案”。

Can those who worry, in particular, about the emissions from a new oil field, be won over by an argument grounded in this being a geopolitically pragmatic and environmentally credible part of transition to cleaner fuels?

那些担忧新油田排放问题的人,能否被一种建立在地缘政治务实性和环境可信度之上的论说说服,即该项目是向更清洁燃料过渡的组成部分?

Some Labour MPs hope so, but they know it's a tall order to persuade some, including some in government – which could, if it was approved, raise the question of ministerial resignations. Let's see.

一些工党议员寄望于此,但他们知道,要说服某些人——包括政府内部的人——是一项艰巨的任务;如果项目获批,可能会引发部长辞职的问题。让我们拭目以待。

There is more: benefits, immigration, defence Expected before long, the former Labour cabinet minister Alan Milburn's review into young people and work– and with it a set of suggestions to try to cut the number of young people not in work, education or training and, in time, to try to cut the benefits bill too.

还有更多议题:福利、移民、国防。前工党内阁大臣艾伦·米尔本关于青年就业的审查报告预计不久将出炉——随之而来的将是一套建议,旨在尝试减少既不就业、也不接受教育或培训的青年人数,并最终尝试削减福利开支。

Plenty of Labour MPs acknowledge these are nettles that need grabbing, but how many may flinch when presented with the sharper edges of what might be proposed?

许多工党议员承认这些是必须抓紧解决的棘手问题,但当面对拟议方案中更尖锐、更刺手的边缘时,会有多少人会退缩?

Meanwhile, we await where the government eventually ends up on how long migrants should have to wait to claim permanent residence in the UK And then, beyond what is set out in the Budget, how ministers will find the money to spend 3% of national income on defence by the end of the decade – and with what trade offs to make that happen.

同时,我们等待政府最终在移民申请英国永久居留的等待期限问题上定下什么立场。此外,在预算案规定的范围之外,部长们将如何筹措资金,以便在本十年末实现国防开支占国民收入3%的目标——以及为此需要做出何种取舍。伯纳姆政府的第二个100天以及之后,有很多值得观察的地方。

There will be plenty to observe in the second 100 days of Burnham's government and beyond.

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