北京稳定股市的努力正推动中国内地与香港双重上市股票的定价差距扩大至近17个月来的最宽水平。
Beijing’s efforts to stabilize its equity markets are helping drive the pricing gap between dual-listed stocks in China and Hong Kong to the widest level in nearly 17 months.
沪深交易所上市的A股较其离岸对应股（H股）溢价33%，恒生沪深港通中国AH股溢价指数显示。该指数有望录得自2024年1月以来最大单月涨幅。
Equities listed on mainland exchanges, known as A-shares, are trading at a 33% premium to their offshore counterparts, the Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index showed. The gauge is on track for its biggest monthly advance since January 2024.
尽管两地股市都因消费疲软而面临盈利前景黯淡的困境，但国家队买盘有助于托底内地股市。香港市场外资更易进入，也更容易受全球风险情绪波动及人工智能题材承压的影响。分析师称，这些因素可能令估值差维持高位。
While stocks in both markets are struggling with lackluster earnings prospects due to weak consumption, state-backed buying is helping to cushion mainland equities. Hong Kong, where foreign investors have easier access to, is also more vulnerable to the ebbs and flows in global risk sentiment and pressure on artificial intelligence plays. Those dynamics may keep the valuation gap elevated, analysts said.
中国国家队ETF吸金创贸易战冲击以来新高 历史上，A股相较于港股（H股）长期溢价交易，部分原因在于资本管制。去年随着AI驱动的势头利好离岸股票，溢价一度收窄，但截至10月的五个月里又再度扩大。
Read: China National Team ETFs Draw Most Inflows Since Trade War Rout Mainland shares have historically traded at a premium to their Hong Kong peers, or H-shares, partly due to capital controls. While the gap narrowed last year as AI-driven momentum favored offshore equities, it has widened again over the five months through October.
法国巴黎银行亚太股票衍生品策略师Scarlett Liu表示：“短期内，若全球对AI投资的情绪继续恶化，中国A股可能比港股更具韧性。我们观察到，10月中国A股交易所交易基金（ETF）出现显著资金流入，因中国政策制定者试图降低下行波动。” 港股也正失去一项关键支撑，因内地投资者撤回资金。据彭博汇编数据，截至周二，本月内地投资者通过沪港通、深港通净卖出约200亿港元（约26亿美元）股票，有望录得自2021年以来最大单月流出。
“In the near-term, China A-shares may be more resilient than Hong Kong listed equities if the global sentiment on AI investment continues to deteriorate,” said Scarlett Liu, APAC equity derivatives strategist at BNP Paribas. “We observed significant inflows into China A-share exchange-traded funds in October as Chinese policymakers try to reduce the downside volatility.”Hong Kong stocks are also losing a key support as mainland investors pull back. They’ve sold around HK$20 billion ($2.6 billion) worth of shares on a net basis this month through Tuesday, set for the biggest monthly outflow since 2021, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.
A股与H股价差扩大，正重燃投资者对利用两市价差获利交易的兴趣。尽管A股与其香港对应股票不可互换，但投资者可运用衍生品或多空头寸，押注溢价走向。
The widening gap is reviving interest in trades that seek to capitalize on price differences between the two markets. While A-shares and their Hong Kong counterparts aren’t interchangeable, investors can use derivatives or long-short positions to bet on the direction of the premium.
宁德时代正成为热门标的，投资者买入其深圳上市股份，同时做空香港股份，押注后者溢价将收窄。Market Securities Hong Kong Ltd. 销售交易员 Andy Zhou 表示，该公司回购内地证券以及“国家队”支撑，是该交易的关键催化剂。
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. is emerging as a popular option, with investors buying its Shenzhen shares and shorting the Hong Kong stock on bets the latter’s premium will narrow. The company’s buyback of its mainland securities as well as the national team support are key catalysts for the trade, said Andy Zhou, a sales trader at Market Securities Hong Kong Ltd.
彭博汇编数据显示，宁德时代香港股份相较深圳对应股份的溢价，已从6月下旬高点缩减逾半。与此同时，S3 Partners 数据显示，针对离岸股份的看空押注已升至26%，较5月水平翻倍。
The premium of CATL’s Hong Kong shares over their Shenzhen counterparts has more than halved from its peak in late June, Bloomberg-compiled data show. Meanwhile, bearish bets against the offshore shares have climbed to 26%, doubling from the level in May, according to S3 Partners data.
Lombard Odier 新加坡策略师 Homin Lee 表示，A-H股价差未来几个月料将在当前水平企稳，“但溢价存在一定上行风险”。他补充称，若宏观数据或政策信号缺乏新的正面催化剂，离岸科技股上市或面临更多逆风。
While the A-H share market gap is likely to stabilize around this level in the coming months, “there will be a bit of upside risk to the premium,” said Homin Lee, a strategist at Lombard Odier in Singapore. Offshore tech listing may face more headwinds if there are no new positive catalysts from macro data or policy signals, he added.