中国内地投资者正以五年多来最快的速度撤离香港股市，这可能加剧港股抛售压力。
Chinese investors are pulling back from Hong Kong’s stocks at the fastest pace in more than five years, threatening to deepen a selloff.
据彭博汇编的数据，截至周四，内地交易员10月通过交易互联互通机制净卖出240亿港元（约合31亿美元）的港股，使本月有望创下2021年以来最大规模的资金流出。
Onshore traders have sold a net HK$24 billion ($3.1 billion) of Hong Kong shares through a trading link in October through Thursday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, putting the month on track for the biggest outflow since 2021.
内地投资者历来是港股的坚定买家，在市场低迷时提供支撑。他们的撤离对这座金融中心而言不是好兆头——由于市场对人工智能概念的热情减退以及融资成本上升，港股已连续三个月下跌。从历史上看，当内地资金转为净流出时，恒生指数往往会出现较长时间的回落。
Mainland investors have traditionally been staunch buyers of Hong Kong stocks, providing support during market downturns. Their exit bodes ill for the financial hub, where stocks have been on a three-month decline on waning enthusiasm for artificial intelligence plays and rising funding costs. The Hang Seng Index has historically suffered extended pullbacks when Chinese flows turned negative.
“港股在筑底之前可能还会再跌10%到15%，”加拿大皇家银行财富管理亚洲区高级投资策略师段茉莉表示。“市场对美国国债收益率走势和资金流向动态仍然最为敏感。”科技股在此轮抛售中首当其冲。芯片制造商中芯国际、电商平台阿里巴巴集团以及电动汽车生产商小米集团等均遭到内地投资者的大举抛售。
“The Hong Kong market could still correct another 10% to 15% before establishing a bottom,” said Jasmine Duan, senior investment strategist at RBC Wealth Management Asia. “The market remains most sensitive to US Treasury yield movements and fund flow dynamics.”Technology stocks have borne the brunt of the selloff. Chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., e-commerce platform Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and electric vehicle producer Xiaomi Corp. are among those heavily sold by mainland investors.
基准恒生指数本月已下跌6.7%，势将创下6月以来最大月度跌幅；恒生科技指数则接近抹去北京于2024年9月推出大规模货币刺激政策后带来的全部涨幅。
The benchmark Hang Seng gauge has lost 6.7% this month, set for the biggest decline since June, and the Hang Seng Tech Index is close to erasing all of its gains spurred by the broad monetary stimulus unleashed by Beijing in September 2024.
法国巴黎银行亚太股票衍生品策略师刘思嘉表示，对许多港股上市公司而言，“投资者仍有些担心其更高的资本开支可能影响利润率”。“我们在离岸科技股中看到了一些所谓的‘内存输家’，包括一些消费电子和电动汽车公司，它们正承受成本上升之苦。”财报季开局乏力和北京不愿推出强有力的财政刺激措施也让投资者失望。中国保险公司平安保险（集团）股份有限公司本周公布利润大幅下滑，原因是投资回报下降；啤酒制造商青岛啤酒股份有限公司的业绩则不及预期。
For many Hong Kong-listed firms, “investors are still a bit concerned about their higher capex that may impact their margins,” said Scarlett Liu, APAC equity derivatives strategist at BNP Paribas. “We have seen some so-called ‘memory losers’ in offshore tech, including some consumer electronics and EV names that are suffering from higher costs.”A lackluster start to the earnings season and Beijing’s reluctance to roll out forceful fiscal stimulus have also disappointed investors. Chinese insurer Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. reported a profit slump this week on falling investment returns, while beer maker Tsingtao Brewery Co. missed estimates.
Bold Wealth Partners Inc.首席投资官杰森·勒米尔表示，不断下调的盈利预期正在拖累估值。“我寻找的可能改变我想法的因素包括：负面盈利修正趋于缓和，以及竞争压力出现任何形式的减轻。”
Collapsing earnings estimates are weighing on valuations, said Jason Lemire, chief investment officer at Bold Wealth Partners Inc. “What I’d be looking for to potentially change my mind include a moderation in negative earnings revisions and any form of reduction in competitive pressures.”