以色列选民似乎已坚决拒绝了本雅明·内塔尼亚胡及其极右翼联盟。10月27日的出口民调显示，总理内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团较2022年大选赢得的32个席位减少了约四分之一，其联盟在以色列120席的议会——克内塞特中将至少差10席才能获得多数。然而，累计执政19年、曾寻求组建史无前例的第七届政府的内塔尼亚胡似乎并未准备好认输。
The Israeli electorate seems to have firmly rejected Binyamin Netanyahu and his hard-right coalition. Exit polls on October 27th suggest that the prime minister’s Likud party has lost around a quarter of the 32 seats it won in the 2022 election and that his coalition will fall short of a majority in the Knesset, Israel’s 120-seat parliament, by at least ten seats. Yet Mr Netanyahu, who has been in office for a total of 19 years and hoped to form an unprecedented seventh government, does not appear ready to accept defeat.
主要广播机构的出口民调平均显示，反对党阵营在下届克内塞特将获得69席，内塔尼亚胡阵营获得51席。由前将军加迪·艾森科特领导的中右翼新党“亚沙尔”赢得的席位略少于利库德集团，但内塔尼亚胡不得不吞并本阵营内的联盟伙伴，才为其党争取到最大得票份额。
The main broadcasters’ exit polls give the opposition parties, on average, 69 seats in the next Knesset, with 51 for the Netanyahu bloc. Yashar, a newish centre-right party led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former general, won slightly fewer seats than Likud, but Mr Netanyahu had to cannibalise his own coalition partners to secure the largest share of the vote for his party.
尽管如此，艾森科特组阁仍将面临困难。以色列阿拉伯选民投票率远高于往常，他们有望赢得多达18个席位，这将刷新阿拉伯人在克内塞特的代表席位纪录。反对党阵营要想获得多数，至少需要一家阿拉伯政党的支持。但艾森科特一直不愿表态是否会将其纳入任何联盟。他的潜在合作伙伴之一、民族主义政党“以色列我们的家园”领袖阿维格多·利伯曼已明确排除甚至依靠阿拉伯党派支持组建少数派政府的可能性。
Mr Eisenkot will, nonetheless, struggle to form a government. Turnout among Israel’s Arabs was much higher than usual, and they seem to be on track to win as many as 18 seats. That would be a record for Arab representation in the Knesset. The opposition will need at least one of the Arab parties to hold a majority. But Mr Eisenkot has been reluctant to say that he would include them in any coalition. One of his potential partners, Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the nationalist Yisrael Beitenu (Israel our Home) party, has categorically ruled out even relying on their support for a minority government.
出口民调过去曾出错，最著名的是1996年，当时内塔尼亚胡似乎已经落败，却在第二天早上反败为胜。但这一次的差距似乎太大了。大多数选票预计将在周三早上前点完，约10%的选票可能要等到周四（主要是士兵和其他未在常规投票站投票的人投出的选票）。在以色列的比例代表制下，政党得票率的微小变动都可能影响席位分配，并决定某个政党能否跨过3.25%的选举门槛。这可能会极大地改变整体局势。不过目前来看，赢得席位的11个政党似乎都没有处于濒临门槛边缘的状态。
Exit polls have been wrong in the past, most famously in 1996, when Mr Netanyahu appeared to have lost, only to emerge victorious the following morning. But the margin this time seems too wide. Most votes should be counted by Wednesday morning, with perhaps 10% not counted until Thursday (mostly votes cast by soldiers and others who did not vote in their usual polling stations). Under Israel’s proportional representation system, small movements in parties’ share of the vote can affect how seats are allocated and determine whether a party crosses the electoral threshold of 3.25%. This could change the overall picture dramatically. At present, though, none of the 11 parties that have won seats seems on the brink.
有一个结论几乎毫无悬念。内塔尼亚胡将无法组建类似于过去四年执政的那种联合政府。选民给总理沉重一击，首先是因为2023年10月7日哈马斯的袭击发生在他的任内。他竭尽全力将大选推迟到法律允许的最后期限，但无法挽回其声望。
One conclusion is almost beyond doubt. Mr Netanyahu will not be able to put together a coalition similar to the one that has ruled Israel for the past four years. The prime minister received a drubbing from voters first and foremost because of the attacks by Hamas on October 7th 2023, which happened on his watch. He did everything in his power to delay the election until the last date allowed by law, but nothing has revived his popularity.
他的对手试图利用这一弱点，指出10月7日当天所有负责安保的高层官员均已辞职。艾森科特的儿子和两个侄子在加沙战争中阵亡，他在选举日清早来到加沙边境的尼尔奥兹。该基布兹在10月7日遭到袭击，四分之一的居民被杀或被劫持为人质。他陪同在加沙被关押了16个月的加迪·莫泽斯前往尼尔奥兹的投票站投票。
His rivals sought to exploit this vulnerability, pointing out that every one of the security chiefs who were in charge on October 7th had resigned. Mr Eisenkot, whose son and two nephews were killed in the Gaza war, began election day on Israel’s border with Gaza at Nir Oz. The kibbutz was attacked on October 7th, and a quarter of its residents were killed or taken hostage. He accompanied Gadi Mozes, who was held captive for 16 months in Gaza, to the polling station in Nir Oz.
许多选民也反对内塔尼亚胡来自极端正统派社区的合作伙伴。他的政府向该社区投入了大量资金，包括用于其学校，这些学校拒绝教授通识课程。政府还允许他们免除兵役。世俗派以色列人认为，这是他们夺回控制权、摆脱一个在他们看来既不为国家经济也不为国家安全做贡献的少数群体统治的最后机会。数万名侨居海外的以色列人（大多倾向自由派）也专程飞回投票。
Many voters were also objecting to Mr Netanyahu’s partners from the ultra-Orthodox community. His government has lavished money on the community, including for its schools, which refuse to teach general studies. The government has also allowed them an exemption from military service. Secular Israelis felt this was their last chance to wrest control from a minority that they reckon fails to contribute to the country’s economy or security. Tens of thousands of expatriate Israelis, mostly liberally inclined, also flew back to vote.
阿拉伯选民的投票率与2022年大选相比大幅上升，从约53%跃升至至少65%。内塔尼亚胡及其犹太至上主义警察部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔的政策有助于解释这一激增。甚至在选举日，极右翼仍在煽动反阿拉伯狂热。在耶路撒冷和其他城市，装有扩音器的汽车在街道上游荡，高呼民众走出家门，“拯救我们的家园”，免受阿拉伯选民之害。
Turnout among Arab voters rose sharply compared with the election in 2022, jumping from around 53% to at least 65%. The policies of Mr Netanyahu and his Jewish-supremacist police minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, help explain the surge. Even on election day the far right was whipping up anti-Arab hysteria. In Jerusalem and other cities, cars with loudspeakers roamed the streets exhorting people to get out and “save our home” from Arab voters.
这并不意味着内塔尼亚胡会心甘情愿地接受失败。他的对手预计，他将质疑选举结果的合法性，特别是针对阿拉伯人的投票。选举日，他多次在社交媒体上声称，左翼和阿拉伯人正在“窃取选举”。中央选举委员会报告称，未发现大规模干扰或篡改结果的企图。
None of this means Mr Netanyahu will accept defeat willingly. His opponents expect that he will question the legitimacy of the result, focusing in particular on the Arab vote. On election day he repeatedly took to social media to claim that the left and the Arabs were “stealing the election”. The Central Election Commission has reported no widespread disruptions or attempts to tamper with the results.
作为看守总理，内塔尼亚胡还可能试图利用其对以色列军事政策的控制权来紧抓权力不放。他渴望发动新一轮针对伊朗的袭击，可能与美国联手，并一直在升级被占约旦河西岸的紧张局势。这两条战线中的任何一条一旦爆发冲突，都可能给部分反对党施加压力，迫使它们加入由他领导的紧急政府。
Mr Netanyahu, as caretaker prime minister, might also try to exploit his control over Israel’s military policy in order to cling to power. He is eager to launch a new series of attacks on Iran, possibly with America, and has been ratcheting up the tension in the occupied West Bank. A conflagration on either of these fronts could create pressure on some of the opposition parties to join an emergency government under his leadership.
结果最终确定后，组阁谈判将随即展开。下周，以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格将会见各党派代表，听取他们对总理人选的推荐。随后，他将决定由谁优先尝试组建政府。这一过程可能长达三个月——且未必能有结果。艾森科特若要组建政府，其阵营成员大概率必须放弃拒绝与阿拉伯政党合作的立场。而在另一方，由于在极端正统派政党要求通过法律、继续豁免哈雷迪学生兵役一事上存在分歧，由犹太政党组成的“团结政府”看来行不通。
Once the results are finalised, coalition talks will begin. Next week Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, will meet representatives of the parties to hear their endorsements for prime minister. He will then decide who gets first crack at forming a government. This process could take up to three months—and may lead nowhere. For Mr Eisenkot to form a government, members of his bloc would probably have to abandon their opposition to working with Arab parties. On the other side, a “unity government” of Jewish parties looks unworkable owing to disagreements over the ultra-Orthodox parties’ demand for a law that would continue to exempt Haredi students from military service.
即便失去了执政联盟的多数席位，内塔尼亚胡在此过程中仍占两大优势。第一，其卸任联盟中的所有政党都极可能向赫尔佐格推荐他。第二，谈判拖得越久，陷入僵局并被迫在2027年初再次大选的可能性就越大。那将让他至少再在任六个月。相比之下，艾森科特尚未获得其他反对党的正式背书。这些党魁预计将为换取支持而讨价还价，甚至可能自行争取总理职位。
Even having lost his coalition’s majority, Mr Netanyahu has two advantages in this process. First, all the parties of his outgoing coalition are likely to put him forward to Mr Herzog. Second, the longer the talks drag on, the greater the chance of a stalemate that forces another election in early 2027. That would give him at least six more months in office. Mr Eisenkot, by contrast, has yet to receive a formal endorsement from the other opposition parties. Their leaders are expected to drive hard bargains in return for their support—or even demand the top job themselves.
一位持乐观态度的反对派内部人士表示：“内塔尼亚胡在这场竞选中做得太过火了，让人指望反对党领袖们迅速聚首、停止讨价还价。”若真如此，最可能的情形是艾森科特在阿拉伯政党支持下组建少数派政府。但内塔尼亚胡向来是政治生存大师，绝不会不战而降。■
“Netanyahu has gone so overboard in this campaign that there’s hope the opposition leaders get together quickly and cut the haggling,” says one optimistic opposition insider. The likeliest scenario in such a case is Mr Eisenkot forming a minority government with the support of the Arab parties. But Mr Netanyahu, ever the political survivor, will not go without a fight. ■