Anthropic正在赋予“总可寻址市场”这一概念新的含义——这是商业术语，指潜在的收入机会。
Anthropic is giving new meaning to the idea of a total addressable market—a business term for potential revenue opportunities.
在周一提交的首次公开募股前文件中，这家AI公司并未明确列出“总可寻址市场”的具体数字，但暗示如果它能捕获全部需求，将面对每年40万亿美元的机会。这将超过SpaceX今年早些时候给出的28.5万亿美元的巨大估值。
In a filing Monday ahead of its planned initial public offering, the artificial intelligence company didn’t explicitly list a “total addressable market” figure but suggested it is staring down a $40 trillion-a-year opportunity if it captures the entirety of demand. That would top SpaceX’s enormous $28.5 trillion estimate from earlier this year.
从云存储和数据公司Snowflake到Anthropic，各家公司的估算区间各异，显示出企业如何将从软件支出到人类劳动的一切转化为对其潜在市场的衡量。
The range in estimates from cloud-storage and data company Snowflake to Anthropic shows how companies turn everything from software spending to human labor into a measure of their potential market.
Snowflake的计算相当直接：有多少潜在客户，每个客户能花多少钱？Airbnb和Uber则向外推进一步，衡量的是与底层活动相关的支出，而非公司自身产品。
Snowflake’s calculation is fairly straightforward: How many potential customers are there, and how much could each spend? Airbnb and Uber move one step outward, measuring the spending associated with the underlying activity rather than a company’s own products.
例如，在2020年的文件中，Airbnb将其3.4万亿美元的可寻址市场划分为三个不同板块：短期住宿、长期住宿和体验。
In its 2020 filing, for example, Airbnb organized its $3.4 trillion addressable market into three distinct segments: short-term stays, long-term stays and experiences.
SpaceX则更进一步，将其大部分机会寄托于对发展中的AI市场的预测。
SpaceX took the calculation a step further, pinning most of its opportunity to projections of the developing AI market.
埃隆·马斯克的火箭制造公司将业务划分为三个板块，并估计其AI业务的潜力在集团中最大，机会超过其互联网络和太空业务。SpaceX称其总可寻址市场是“人类历史上最大的可操作”市场。Anthropic在本周的文件中则将这一概念推向了迄今最宽泛的境地：如果市场根本不是某个现有产品类别，而是AI所能完成工作的经济价值呢？
Elon Musk’s rocket maker outlined three segments and estimated its AI business to have the largest potential of the group, with a bigger opportunity than its connectivity and space endeavors. SpaceX called its total addressable market “the largest actionable” market in “human history.”Anthropic, in its filing this week, took the concept to its broadest point yet: What if the market isn’t an existing product category at all, but the economic value of work that AI could perform?
该公司表示，它认为知识工作者从事的工作去年代表了超过40万亿美元的经济价值。“随着前沿AI有可能使他们有意义地提高生产力，我们近期的机会是扩大这一价值并加速经济增长，”文件称。
The company said it believes the work that knowledge workers perform represented more than $40 trillion in economic value last year. “With frontier AI’s potential to make them meaningfully more productive, our near-term opportunity is to expand this value and accelerate economic growth,” the filing said.
Anthropic引用IDC的估计称，对AI解决方案和服务的投资将在2031年前带来22.5万亿美元的累计全球经济影响。
Anthropic cited IDC estimates that investment in AI solutions and services will lead to a cumulative global economic impact of $22.5 trillion by 2031.
“我们相信影响可能甚至更大。”这使得该公司的总可寻址市场既可能极其巨大，又更难以独立核实。
“We believe the impact could be even greater.”That makes the company’s total addressable market both potentially enormous and harder to independently verify.
一家公司的可寻址市场并非销售预测，也不意味着该公司预期能获得接近100%的份额。例如，Anthropic目前的收入以十亿美元计，而非万亿美元。
A company’s addressable market isn’t a sales forecast, nor does it mean the firm expects to capture anything close to 100% of it. Anthropic’s current revenue, for example, is measured in billions, not trillions.
巨大的分母告诉投资者，即使是当下非凡的增长，也可能仅占一个大得多的机会的一小部分。
The giant denominator tells investors that even extraordinary growth today could represent only a small share of a much larger opportunity.