Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is up against it in next month’s Melaka state poll, as his ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition risks yet another electoral wipeout at the hands of its federal partner Umno.

The two are competing head-to-head in nearly all of the 28 state assembly seats up for grabs on November 14, in a contest widely seen as favouring an incumbent state administration led by the United Malays National Organisation’s Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition.

Whether BN holds onto power in Melaka matters less than whether Anwar and PH can mount a strong challenge, observers say – especially given the string of bruising electoral defeats the prime minister has suffered in recent months.

PH was trounced in July’s Johor state election, with Umno retaining its supermajority, and weeks later it lost Negeri Sembilan to an electoral pact between Umno and the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS).

“State poll results do not directly change his [Anwar’s] parliamentary majority, but repeated losses and disputes over reforms and the balance between PH and BN could put the [federal] coalition under strain,” said Asrul Sani, associate vice-president at strategic advisory firm The Asia Group.

PH and BN have each named 21 candidates ahead of nomination day on Saturday, leaving room for prospective partners to contest the remaining seven seats.

The political arrangements in Melaka offer a glimpse of possible alliances heading into the next general election, due by February 2028.

As Umno explores a possible long-term partnership with PAS, PH is considering reviving its alliance with Malay-nationalist party Bersatu, which engineered the collapse of the previous PH government in 2020 via a political coup known as the “Sheraton Move”.

Bersatu has since been weakened by an exodus of senior leaders, but it remains PH’s only credible route to shore up support among Malay voters against an Umno-PAS union, according to Mazlan Ali, a political scientist at the University of Technology Malaysia.

“PH has no other option to counterbalance the Malay-Muslim narrative of PAS and Umno,” Mazlan said. Ethnic Malays and other indigenous groups account for the majority of Malaysia’s voters.

Anwar became prime minister in 2022 after being appointed by the country’s then king, Sultan Abdullah Ahmad Shah, on condition that he form a unity government including his former rivals in Umno. No coalition had won enough seats to govern on its own in that year’s deeply divided election.

That federal compact began to unravel after PH was all but wiped out in last November’s Sabah state election, as long-time supporters made clear their dissatisfaction with Anwar’s perceived failure to deliver promised reforms.

Umno seized the moment, building a narrative of solidarity among the Malay-Muslim majority that has since translated into an informal electoral partnership with the Islamist PAS and its Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition.

“PH looks very weak right now because of the strength and cooperation between BN and PN,” said political analyst Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, a Malaysian think tank.

“The Chinese vote is still with PH, no doubt about that. But the Malay vote is solidly behind the cooperation between BN and PN.”The Chinese vote is still with PH, no doubt about that. But the Malay vote is solidly behind … BN and PNAzmi Hassan, political analyst In politics, perception is everything. Umno has made clear that it wants to return to federal power after being ousted in the 2018 general election amid allegations of widespread corruption, chiefly tied to the multibillion-dollar scandal at state fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB).

Emboldened by its strong showing in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has already called for a snap national poll to end the political deadlock facing Anwar’s administration.

Melaka is far from a bellwether for the next general election, given that the state contributes just six of parliament’s 222 seats. But with a little over a year left in his first term in office, former reformist champion Anwar is under increasing pressure to prove that PH can still deliver.

“He needs to get his supporters excited to come out and vote,” said Adib Zalkapli, managing director of the geopolitical and public affairs firm Viewfinder Global Affairs.

“So yes, Anwar needs to show some results before calling for a general election.”The bar for what counts as a success is not set especially high.

Avoiding a total rout in Melaka might be enough to slow the roll of BN’s “blue wave”, said political scientist Syaza Farhana Mohamad Shukri, in reference to the rival coalition’s colour of choice.

“People are frustrated with Anwar but there are still many pockets of Malaysian voters still wary of BN because they want a better and cleaner system,” said Syaza, an associate professor of political science at the International Islamic University of Malaysia. “A lot boils down to what Anwar can do to at least not get crushed by BN.”