在中东冲突恶化的问题上，他确实有道理。问题在于，选民并不买这位财政部长的话。
on the worsening Middle East conflict, and he has a point. The trouble is, voters aren't buying what the treasurer is selling.
澳大利亚统计局表示，9月份燃料成本9.4%的跃升，是通胀率从4%加速至4.3%的主要原因。数据显示，汽油和柴油价格平均比一年前高出24%。
The Australian Bureau of Statistics said that the 9.4% jump in fuel costs in September was largely responsible for inflation accelerating from 4% to 4.3%. Petrol and diesel prices were on average 24% higher than a year earlier, the data shows.
我们显然正在为唐纳德·特朗普针对伊朗毫无意义且极具破坏性的战争付出经济代价——不管你的政治倾向如何，你都无法将此归咎于政府。
We are clearly paying an economic price for Donald Trump's pointless and damaging war on Iran – and you can't pin that on the government, whatever your political leanings.
此外还有数据中心支出突然激增，这正在向一个本已难以提供建设住房和道路所需工人和材料的经济体注入资金。
Then there's the sudden boom in spending on datacentres, which is pouring money into an economy that is already struggling to deliver the workers and materials needed to build homes and roads.
同样，这也是由科技公司为支持其人工智能革命而铺设基础设施的全球热潮所驱动的。
Again, this is driven by the global rush by tech companies to put in place the infrastructure to power their artificial intelligence revolution.
当天早些时候，澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克也提出了同样的观点：海外事态发展使央行将通胀一路拉回2.5%（最好在明年年底前实现）这一本已艰难的任务变得更加复杂。
Earlier in the day, Michele Bullock, the RBA's governor, made the same point: overseas developments were complicating the central bank's already tough task of bringing inflation all the way back to 2.5%, preferably by the end of next year.
承担生活成本压力恶化的主要责任可能并非完全公平，但这却是执政党必须付出的代价——正如最新的Essential民调显示，近三分之一的选民认为政府支出是生活成本上升的首要原因。
Taking the lion's share of the blame for worsening cost of living pressures may not be completely fair, but it is the price of incumbency – as the latest Essential poll showed Nearly a third of voters believe that government spending is the top cause for rising cost of living.
只有24%的选民表示，像全球石油危机这样的海外事件是主要原因，还有19%的选民认为是超市哄抬物价。
Only 24% said overseas events like the global oil shock was the main reason, and 19% said it was supermarket price gouging.
虽然政府支出可能不是自年中以来通胀持续走高的主要原因，但它确实是其中的一部分。
While government spending may not be the main reason that inflation has tracked higher since the middle of the year, it is part of the mix.
包括该国顶级预算观察家克里斯·理查森在内的经济学家认为，公共支出过高，无助于降低通胀的战斗。政府支出占经济的比重接近历史最高水平。
Economists including Chris Richardson, the country's top budget watcher, have argued that public spending is too high and is not helping in the battle to bring inflation down. Government expenditure as a share of the economy is around record highs.
这很难与查尔默斯的辩解相吻合，他坚称政府与最新生活成本的跃升无关，特别是当澳大利亚储备银行官员经常提到2月下旬对伊朗战争开始时存在的产能压力时。
This is hard to reconcile with Chalmers' protestations that the government has nothing to do with the latest jump in cost of living, particularly when RBA officials frequently refer to the capacity pressures that existed when the war on Iran started in late February.
同样重要的是，澳大利亚储备银行首选的潜在通胀指标（剔除了最大价格波动）在截至9月份的一年中也从3.6%上升至3.7%。
It's also important to note that the RBA's preferred measure of underlying inflation – removing the biggest price moves – also lifted from 3.6% to 3.7% in the year to the September quarter.
无论应该怪谁或怪什么、程度如何，当澳大利亚储备银行在下周二几乎肯定会实施今年的第五次加息时，选民们可能会变得更加愤怒。
Regardless of who or what is to blame, and to what degree, voters are likely to get angrier still next Tuesday when the Reserve Bank surely delivers the year's fifth interest rate hike.
在最新价格统计数据发布前的参议院预算估算听证会上，澳大利亚储备银行官员证实，他们对通胀根深蒂固的担忧超过了对最近触及五年新高的失业率上升的担忧。
In Senate estimates before the latest price statistics were released, Reserve Bank officials confirmed they were more worried about inflation becoming entrenched than they were about rising unemployment, which recently reached a five-year high.
因此，在墨尔本杯赛马日到来之际，除了给房贷持有者带来更多痛苦之外，很难看到别的结果。另一次加息将使现金利率达到4.85%，为全球金融危机以来的最高水平。
So it's hard to see anything but more pain for mortgage holders come Melbourne Cup day. Another rate rise will bring the cash rate to 4.85% – the highest since the GFC.
如果你开始对这一比较感到担忧，澳大利亚储备银行首席经济学家萨拉·亨特给出了安慰，称没有迹象表明经济“短期内处于或正走向衰退”。
If you're starting to fret about that comparison, Sarah Hunter, the RBA's chief economist, offered the reassurance that there were no signs the economy was "in or heading into a recession in the near term".
或许如此，但毫无疑问，我们正在走向更加危险的领地，未来看起来更加黯淡，而非光明。
Perhaps, but there is no doubt we are heading into more dangerous territory, and the future is looking darker, not brighter.
家庭正带着处于2008年以来最高水平的利率、极高的汽油成本和不断上升的失业率迎来圣诞节。
Families are approaching Christmas with rates at their highest since 2008, sky-high petrol costs and rising unemployment.
对许多家庭来说，这将是一个艰难的夏天，并会加剧人们对未来日益根深蒂固的悲观情绪。
For many households, it will be a tough summer that will add to an increasingly entrenched pessimism about the future.
根据最新的Essential民调，认为国家走错了路的澳大利亚人比例一直在稳步攀升，达到61%。只有25%的选民持相反看法。
The share of Australians saying they think the country is on the wrong track has been steadily climbing and reached 61%, according to the latest Essential poll. Only 25% of voters think the opposite.
随着政府接近本届议会任期的第三年，查尔默斯现在面临着利用12月中期预算以某种方式改变叙事的压力。这将是一个艰巨的要求，也没有显而易见的答案。
The pressure is now on Chalmers to use December's mid-year budget to somehow change the narrative as the government approaches the third year of this parliamentary term. It will be a tough ask, and there are no obvious answers.
至少有一点我们可以达成共识。正如这位财政部长常说的那样：中东冲突结束得越快越好。
There is, at least, one thing we can agree on. As the treasurer is fond of saying: the Middle East conflict can't end soon enough.