华盛顿，10月28日：世界银行周三表示，由于能源价格上涨、中东战争期间货运中断、黑海粮食运输问题以及对黄金等避险资产的高需求，2026年全球大宗商品价格预计将飙升23%。
WASHINGTON, Oct 28 : Global commodity prices are set to surge 23 per cent in 2026, the World Bank said on Wednesday, citing rising energy prices and disruptions to cargo shipping during the Middle East war, grain shipment problems in the Black Sea and high demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.
世界银行在最新一期《大宗商品市场展望》中表示，随着全球冲击加剧，今年石油、天然气、食品和金属价格均大幅上涨。该机构表示，如果中东冲突升级且俄罗斯石油基础设施受损情况持续，局势可能进一步恶化。
Oil, natural gas, food and metals prices all rose sharply this year as global shocks mounted, the World Bank said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook. It said the situation could worsen if the conflict in the Middle East ratcheted up and damage to Russian oil infrastructure continued.
世行表示，明年大宗商品价格预计将回落7%，但持续的冲击——包括对1950年以来最严重厄尔尼诺天气影响的预测——可能使食品类大宗商品价格居高不下，从而加剧通胀上升和货币政策收紧的风险。
Commodity prices were expected to ease by 7 per cent next year, it said, but continued shocks - including forecasts for the worst El Niño weather effect since 1950 - could keep food commodity prices elevated, raising the specter of higher inflation and tighter monetary policy.
全球经济目前更容易受到未来供应冲击的影响。世行表示，中东战争期间全球石油库存已被消耗，2026年全球石油供应预计将下降5.2%，为四十年来除2020年全球经济衰退之外的最大降幅。
The global economy was more vulnerable to future supply shocks at the moment. Global oil stocks have been depleted during the war in the Middle East, and global oil supply is expected to drop 5.2 per cent in 2026, the biggest drop in four decades outside the 2020 global recession, the bank said.
世界银行副首席经济学家艾汉·科塞表示：“大宗商品市场正同时遭受多重重大冲击。能源成本上升和贸易中断正在推高多种大宗商品的价格，有可能加剧通胀、粮食不安全和经济增长恶化。”世行于周三发布了这份一年两度的报告，两天后，全球20个最大经济体的外长将在佐治亚州亚特兰大举行会议，重点讨论中东和乌克兰的战争。
"Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once," said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist. "Higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth." The bank released its twice-yearly report on Wednesday, two days before foreign ministers from the world's 20 largest economies are due to gather in Atlanta, Georgia for a meeting that will focus on the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
科塞表示，世界银行重点关注保护世界上最贫困的人口，并支持已在艰难应对沉重债务负担的低收入国家。
Kose said the World Bank was focused on protecting the world's poorest people and supporting low-income countries already grappling with heavy debt burdens.
报告称，世界银行已向受中东战争负面影响的25个国家提供了87亿美元的低成本贷款和其他援助。这包括10个调整现有项目以支付危机相关费用的国家，以及19个动用了新资源的国家，其中一些国家两者兼用。
The bank had already provided $8.7 billion in low-cost loans and other aid to 25 countries affected negatively by the war in the Middle East, the report said. This included 10 countries that retooled existing programs to cover crisis-related expenses, and 19 that had tapped new resources, with some using both.
这份每年发布两次的报告称，2026年全球能源价格飙升32%，达到自2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的最高水平。
The report, released twice a year, said global energy prices surged 32 per cent in 2026, reaching their highest level since 2022's invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
由于石油产量下降，预计布伦特原油价格短期内将维持高位，全年均价为每桶92美元。如果今年石油需求预计不会下降2.5%，价格还会更高——这将是仅次于2020年新冠疫情冲击和1980年石油危机的第三大降幅。
With oil output down, Brent oil prices were expected to remain elevated in the near term, averaging $92 per barrel for the year. Prices would be even higher if oil demand were not forecast to drop 2.5 per cent this year, the third-largest drop behind the 2020 COVID shock and the 1980 oil crisis.
报告称，由于俄罗斯与乌克兰在黑海的敌对行动导致粮食运输中断，2026年食品大宗商品价格预计将上涨略高于10%，2027年将再上涨7%以上，累计涨幅接近18%。
It said food commodity prices were set to rise just over 10 per cent in 2026 due to grain shipment disruptions caused by hostilities between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea, and another 7 per cent-plus in 2027, for a cumulative increase of nearly 18 per cent.
报告称，一个不利情景——叠加创纪录的厄尔尼诺现象、更多黑海粮食运输中断、中东冲突升级以及俄罗斯石油基础设施持续受损——可能推动食品价格比预期高出12%。世界银行指出，这可能引发类似2010年代初那样的粮食危机，当时有4000多万人被推入极端贫困。
An adverse scenario that coupled a record El Nino, more Black Sea grain shipment disruptions, escalation in the Middle East conflict and ongoing damage to Russian oil infrastructure could drive food prices 12 per cent higher than expected, it said. That could trigger a food crisis like the one seen in the early 2010s, when more than 40 million additional people were pushed into extreme poverty, the bank noted.
由于尿素价格飙升，预计2026年化肥价格上涨14%，2027年回落至2025年的水平。
Fertilizer prices were expected to rise 14 per cent in 2026, due to a surge in urea prices, returning to 2025 levels in 2027.
世界银行表示，预计2026年金属价格上涨25%并创下新高，铝、铜和锡均因供应中断以及可再生能源、电动汽车和数据中心投资带来的强劲需求而创下新纪录。
Metals prices were projected to rise 25 per cent and hit a new high in 2026, with aluminum, copper and tin all setting new records as a result of supply disruptions and strong demand from investments in renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centers, the bank said.
预计2026年贵金属价格将飙升40%，原因是地缘政治和政策不确定性引发对避险资产的需求上升，而2027年预计将有所回落。
Precious metals prices were projected to surge by 40 per cent in 2026, amid elevated demand for safe-haven assets triggered by geopolitical and policy uncertainty, with some moderation seen in 2027.