这些国家正处于危急关头。气候影响实验室的一张令人震惊的地图显示，随着太平洋地区的天气异常现象愈演愈烈，超级厄尔尼诺将在哪些地方导致最多额外的与高温相关的死亡。
These nations are in the hot seat. An alarming map from the Climate Impact Lab shows where Super El Niño will cause the most additional heat deaths as the weather anomaly gains steam in the Pacific.
据这张被称为“厄尔尼诺热死亡追踪器”的启示录式地图显示，在2026年10月至2026年3月期间，将有超过37.3万名额外人员死亡，尼日利亚、印度和巴西将占死亡总数的三分之一。
According to the apocalyptic cartography, dubbed the El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker, over 373,000 additional people will perish between October 2026-March 2026 with Nigeria, India and Brazil accounting for a third of the death toll.
与此同时，这一异常天气系统——以海面温度衡量——将东中太平洋厄尔尼诺3.4区域的水温推升至10月18日至24日那一周比正常温度高出3.4摄氏度（超过6华氏度）的创纪录水平。
This comes as the anomalous weather system — measured by sea surface temperatures — propelled water temps in the Niño 3.4 region of the East-Central Pacific to record 3.4 C (over 6 F) warmer than normal for the week of October 18-24.
据世界气象组织称，这一现象可能导致11月至1月期间的气温飙升至典型厄尔尼诺的六倍多。
The phenomenon could send temps soaring to more than six times that of a typical El Niño between November and January, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
为了确定影响将有多么严重，该团队估算了当前厄尔尼诺导致的额外高温死亡人数，与1996年至2005年的平均状况相比。该研究涵盖全球约3700个地区，并每月更新未来六个月的预测。
To determine just how devastating the effects will be, the team estimated the number of additional heat deaths caused by the current El Niño compared with average conditions from 1996 to 2005. The study spans roughly 3,700 regions worldwide and is updated monthly with forecasts for the next six months.
据该地图显示，从2026年6月该现象开始到2027年3月，厄尔尼诺将导致85.74万名额外的与高温相关的死亡——比科学家们一个月前的预测高出35万多人。
Per the map, El Niño will contribute to 857,400 additional heat-related deaths from the phenomenon’s start in June 2026 to March 2027 — over 350,000 higher than the scientists’ projection just a month ago.
在这九个月的总数中，超过一半的额外死亡预计将在未来六个月内发生。
Of the nine-month total, over half that many additional deaths are expected to occur over the next six months.
据模型预测，尼日利亚将承受最严重的打击，在此期间预计将有超过5.6万名与高温相关的伤亡。紧随其后的是印度，模型显示，预计有5.52万人面临风险。
Nigeria is predicted to bear the brunt of the burn, with over 56,000 projected heat-related casualties during this timeframe. Following close behind, per the model, is India, where 55,200 are expected to be at risk.
排名前五的其余国家是印度尼西亚（2.93万）、巴西（1.95万）和苏丹（1.47万）。
Rounding out the top five are Indonesia (29,300), Brazil (19,500) and Sudan (14,700).
利用这张地图，研究人员将能够估算该现象在哪些地区最为严重，以及政府如何应对以减轻损害。
Using this map, researchers will be able to estimate where the phenomenon is most severe and how governments can respond to mitigate the damage.
气候影响实验室联合创始人、芝加哥大学米尔顿·弗里德曼经济学杰出服务教授迈克尔·格林斯通表示：“我们的研究将新的预测能力投入使用，以回答我们面临的最紧迫问题之一：极端高温可能在哪些地方夺走生命？”“能够预见极端高温的致命影响是一大进步。”
“Our research puts new forecasting capabilities to work to answer one of the most urgent questions we face: where is extreme heat likely to cost lives?” said Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and the Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago. “Being able to anticipate the deadly effects of extreme heat is a major step forward.”
他还说：“这意味着我们可以确定人们面临最大风险的地方，并让决策者有机会在生命损失之前采取行动。”研究人员估计，自6月以来，厄尔尼诺已导致48.45万人额外死亡。
He added, “It means we can identify where people face the greatest risks and give decision-makers a chance to act before lives are lost.”Researchers estimate that El Niño has caused 484,500 additional deaths since June.
一些连锁反应包括印度尼西亚的野火、印度关键季风降雨的缺失以及中美洲的干旱。
Some of the ripple effects have included wildfires in Indonesia, the absence of crucial monsoon rains in India, and droughts in Central America.
与此同时，在美国，西部和南部预计将遭受更多风暴和降雨的袭击，而纽约预计将出人意料地安然无恙。
Stateside, meanwhile, the Western and Southern US are expected to be battered by more storms and rain while New York is slated to emerge shockingly unscathed.
AccuWeather高级气象学家马特·本茨此前对《纽约邮报》表示，厄尔尼诺可能会让纽约市一直到1月都感觉像秋天——预计今年冬天的降雪量将比去年减少多达四分之一。
El Niño could cause the Big Apple to feel like autumn into January — with up to a quarter less snow forecast this winter than last, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Benz previously told The Post.