林利·桑德斯、罗伯特·尹 华盛顿讯——选举常常被简化为谁赢谁输，但同样重要的是了解谁投票了、如何投票，是什么激励了选民，以及他们对国家面临的重要问题有何看法。
LINLEY SANDERS, ROBERT YOON WASHINGTON — Elections are often boiled down to who won and lost, but it’s just as important to understand who voted and how, what motivated voters, and how they feel about important issues facing the country.
在美联社，美联社选民民调（The AP Voter Poll by SSRS）是回答这些问题的关键部分，用以解释塑造国会控制权之争并决定美国参议院和州长关键选举的选民联盟。
At The Associated Press, The AP Voter Poll by SSRS is a key part of answering those questions, explaining the voting coalitions that shaped the race for congressional control and decided key races for U.S. Senate and governor.
该民调于2025年启动，是对经过核实的选民进行的大规模调查，旨在讲述选举结果背后的故事。它融合了AP VoteCast的方法论——后者在2018年至2024年的大选中实施——以及传统的选民出口民调。这包括在选举前几天，通过电话和在线方式对全美50个州的选民进行访谈，并在选举日于15个州的投票站收集面对面访谈的额外数据。
Launched in 2025, The AP Voter Poll is an extensive survey of verified voters that aims to tell the story behind election results. It blends the methodologies from AP VoteCast , which was conducted in general elections from 2018-2024, and traditional exit polls. This involves interviewing voters by phone and online in all 50 states in the days leading up to the election, and collecting additional data from in-person interviews at polling places in 15 states on Election Day.
结果是对美国选民群体的详细快照，有助于解释主要群体如何投票、他们关心的问题、对候选人的看法以及为何以某种方式投票。
The result is a detailed snapshot of the American electorate that helps explain how major groups voted, the issues they cared about, how they felt about the candidates and why they voted the way they did.
该调查的首批结果将于美国东部时间11月3日星期二下午5点首次发布，随后整个夜晚将陆续公布更多州级和全国性调查结果。
An initial set of results from the survey are first available at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 3, with additional state-level and national findings that will be published throughout the night.
选民民调由非党派研究公司SSRS为美联社以及ABC新闻、CBS新闻、CNN、福克斯新闻媒体、NBC新闻和MS Now进行。
The Voter Poll is conducted by SSRS, a nonpartisan research firm, for The Associated Press and ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News Media, NBC News and MS Now.
美联社选民民调采用多种方法相结合的方式，无论选民如何投票——无论是邮寄还是在选举日亲自投票——都能接触到他们。
The AP Voter Poll uses a combination of methods to reach voters no matter how they cast a ballot, whether that’s by mail or in-person on Election Day.
反映美国选举的复杂性，美联社选民民调包含两个独立部分。一部分是从10月22日至11月3日在全美50个州进行的全面调查；另一部分是在11月3日于15个关键州的投票站进行的面对面调查，为这些州的调查结果增加深度。
Reflecting the complexity of American elections, The AP Voter Poll has two separate components. One part is a comprehensive survey conducted in all 50 states from Oct. 22 - Nov. 3. The other is an in-person survey at polling places in 15 key states on Nov. 3 that adds depth to those states’ findings.
首先，美联社选民民调在选举日前对大约7.5万名选民进行访谈，采用邮寄调查邀请、电话和短信访谈，以及从概率和非概率样本意见小组中抽取的样本。这与美联社选民调查（AP VoteCast）采用的方法类似。
First, The AP Voter Poll interviews approximately 75,000 voters in the lead-up to Election Day, using mailed survey invitations, phone and text interviews, and samples drawn from probability and nonprobability-based opinion panels. This is similar to the methodology used in AP VoteCast.
为了寻找参与调查的人员，美联社选民民调从各州选民档案中随机抽取注册选民样本。这些选民随后通过邮件联系，邀请其在线或通过电话参与调查。如果选民未对最初的参与邀请做出回应，部分选民也会接到电话联系。
To find people to participate in the survey, The AP Voter Poll draws a random sample of registered voters from state voter files. Those voters are then contacted through the mail and invited to take the survey online or by phone. Some voters are also contacted by phone if they do not respond to the initial invitation to take part in the survey.
其他选民则通过概率样本的SSRS意见小组招募，该小组将每位受访者与选民档案进行匹配。
Other voters are recruited through the probability-based SSRS Opinion Panel, which matches each respondent to the voter file.
美联社选民民调还对通过Verasight验证小组招募的选民进行访谈，该小组部分参与者并非随机抽取，而是通过互联网广告或其他方式招募。受访者的选民登记状态会单独进行核实，样本会与其他选前数据来源仔细合并，以确保这些额外访谈不会过度代表或代表不足重要的人口和意识形态群体。
The AP Voter Poll also conducts interviews with voters recruited through the Verasight Verified Panel, where some participants are not selected randomly but are instead recruited through internet advertising or other methods. The respondents’ voter registration status is verified separately and the sample is carefully combined with the other pre-election data sources to make sure these additional interviews don’t overrepresent or underrepresent important demographic and ideological groups.
许多选民在接受调查时可能已经投票，但如果他们尚未投票，将在选举日被重新联系，以核实其最终投票选择和方式。
Many voters will have already cast their ballot by the time they take the survey, but if they haven’t yet voted, they will be recontacted on Election Day to verify their final vote choice and method.
然后，在选举日，将在15个州的投票站对选民进行面对面访谈，这15个州分别是：阿拉斯加、佛罗里达、乔治亚、爱荷华、缅因、密歇根、明尼苏达、内布拉斯加、内华达、新罕布什尔、北卡罗来纳、俄亥俄、宾夕法尼亚、得克萨斯和威斯康星，在这些州增加大约2.5万次访谈。10月下旬，还在阿拉斯加的提前投票中心进行访谈。
Then, on Election Day, in-person interviews will be conducted with voters at polling places in 15 states – Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin – adding approximately 25,000 interviews across those states. Interviews are also being conducted at early-vote centers in Alaska in late October.
选前调查和现场调查的数据随后被合并，以确保综合调查能够代表每个进行民调的州预计2026年选民的构成。
The data from the pre-election and in-person surveys are then blended to ensure the combined surveys are representative of the estimated 2026 electorate in each state where an exit poll is conducted.
结果是一项全面的全国调查，它依据来自全美50个州的访谈，对整个国家进行详细的快照，同时在每个举行美国参议员或州长全州竞选的州，提供单独的州级结果。在没有全州竞选的五个州——印第安纳州、密苏里州、北达科他州、犹他州和华盛顿州——进行的访谈将被纳入全国调查，但不会单独公布。
The result is a comprehensive national survey that draws on interviews from all 50 states to provide a detailed snapshot of the country as a whole, as well as separate state-by-state results in every state where a statewide race for U.S. Senator or governor, is taking place. Interviews conducted in the five states without a statewide race – Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Utah and Washington – will be included in the national survey, but will not be reported separately.
选民被要求回答一组标准的人口统计问题，例如年龄、性别、种族和族裔、教育程度及意识形态。他们还被要求分享对当前国家领导层和方向的看法，如何评估选票上的候选人，以及认为国家面临的关键问题是什么，例如犯罪、经济、外交政策、医疗保健和移民。
Voters are asked a standard set of demographic questions, such as their age, sex, race and ethnicity, education level and ideology. They’re also asked to share their views on what they think about the country’s current leadership and direction, how they are assessing the candidates on the ballot, and what they believe are the key issues facing the country, such as crime, the economy, foreign policy, healthcare and immigration.
问卷询问选民在美国参议院和州长竞选中的选择，具体取决于这些竞选在哪些州举行。今年，加利福尼亚州选民还将被问及他们如何对第40号提案投票，该提案是该州针对亿万富翁提出的一次性税收提案。
The questionnaire asks about voters’ choices in races for U.S. Senate and governor, depending on where those races are happening. This year, California voters will also be asked how they voted on Proposition 40, a proposed one-time tax on billionaires in the state.
此外，全国调查的参与者还被问及他们在当地美国众议院竞选中是投给了民主党还是共和党候选人。这一全国调查结果——通常被称为“非特定”众议院选票——揭示了全国国会竞选的大致形势，但不包括具体国会选区的结果。
In addition, participants in the national survey are asked if they voted for the Democratic or Republican candidate in their local U.S. House race. This national finding – often called the “generic” House ballot – sheds light on the shape of the race for Congress across the country, but does not include results from specific congressional districts.
这些信息都不能替代投票计数，总体调查结果——即有多少选民总体上表示支持某位特定候选人或政党——也不会公布。相反，这项调查旨在提供有关特定群体如何投票以及原因的宝贵洞察。
None of this information is a replacement for the vote count, and the topline findings – how many voters overall say they supported a specific candidate or party – won’t be reported. Instead, the survey is designed to provide valuable insight into how specific groups voted, and why.
美联社选民民调将成为美联社2026年选举报道的重要组成部分，帮助解释选民的动机，并阐明关键群体如何塑造选举结果。
The AP Voter Poll will be an integral part of the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election, helping explain voters’ motivations and illuminate how key groups shaped the outcome.
例如，在2025年新泽西州州长选举中，美联社选民民调结果显示，民主党人米基·谢里尔在获得该州约一半白人选民支持，并在黑人、西班牙裔和亚裔选民中表现强劲后获胜。
For example, in the 2025 New Jersey governor’s election, the AP Voter Poll results showed that Democrat Mikie Sherrill won after getting support from about half of white voters in the state and having a strong showing among Black, Hispanic and Asian voters.
而在纽约市市长选举中，2025年美联社选民民调发现，年轻选民压倒性地支持佐赫兰·马姆达尼的成功竞选活动，而安德鲁·库莫的联盟则年龄要大得多。
And in the New York City mayoral race, the 2025 AP Voter Poll found that younger voters overwhelmingly voted for Zohran Mamdani in his successful campaign, while Andrew Cuomo’s coalition was much older.
选民民调也是美联社决策团队在选举之夜分析选举时可用的宝贵工具。选举结果不会仅根据选民民调结果来宣布，但该调查可以对一场竞选提供额外的洞察，并帮助确定是否可以宣布获胜者。决策团队在宣布选举结果时还会考虑其他因素，包括选举结果、投票历史、登记和投票率数据、人口统计信息以及其他数据。
The Voter Poll is also a valuable tool available to the AP Decision Team as it analyzes races on Election Night. Races are not called based solely on Voter Poll results, but the survey can shed additional light on a contest and help determine whether a winner can be declared. Other factors that the Decision Team will consider when calling a race include election results, vote history, registration and turnout data, demographic information and other data.
在一些竞选中，如果某个政党有悬殊胜利的既往历史，并且其他选举数据，如选民登记、提前投票回执和选前民调中的压倒性优势，都指向该党获胜，那么选民民调的结果可能是美联社在投票站关闭后立即宣布获胜者所需的最后一个数据点。
In some contests where one political party has an established history of lopsided victories and where other election data, such as overwhelming advantages in voter registration, advance ballot returns and pre-election polling, all point to a victory by that party, results from The Voter Poll may be the final data point that allows the AP to declare a winner as soon as polls close.