11月1日 —— 周二晚间，全美各大新闻编辑室将在该国近年来最激烈的中期选举周期之一中宣布胜选者，此时距离所有选票统计完毕尚早。
Nov 1 - On Tuesday night, newsrooms across the US will call winners in one of the country's most closely contested midterm election cycles in recent years, long before all the votes are counted.
大多数电视网和数字媒体依赖两家机构提供的计票数据：美联社或选举数据公司Decision Desk HQ。
Most television networks and digital outlets rely on two providers for vote counts: the Associated Press or election-data firm Decision Desk HQ.
部分新闻机构如《华尔街日报》和MS NOW将完全依赖美联社的胜选判定，而福克斯新闻和哥伦比亚广播公司新闻等其他机构则将基于美联社的计票数据、出口民调、提前投票总数及其自身的统计模型自行做出预测。
Some news outlets such as the Wall Street Journal and MS NOW will rely solely on the AP for race calls, while others like Fox News and CBS News will make their own projections based on the AP vote count, exit polls, early-vote totals and their own statistical modeling.
首批判定将在美国投票站开始关闭后不久启动，首先是印第安纳州和肯塔基州于美国东部时间下午6点（格林威治标准时间2300），随后是佐治亚州、南卡罗来纳州、佛蒙特州和弗吉尼亚州于美国东部时间下午7点（11月4日格林威治标准时间0000）。在某些竞选中，若大部分投票已完成，可能会即时宣布结果。
The first calls will start soon after polls begin to close in the United States, first with Indiana and Kentucky at 6 p.m. ET (2300 GMT), and shortly after in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia at 7 p.m. (0000 GMT on November 4). In certain races there may be an instant call if much of the voting has already taken place.
公众信任度低给新闻机构的胜选判定带来了复杂性。美迪尔地方新闻倡议组织与媒体信任联盟10月的一项民调发现，虽然超过60%的美国人对新闻机构准确报道选举结果有一定信心，但仅有32%高度信任，民主党人比共和党人更信任。
Low public trust complicates race calls for news outlets. While more than 60% of Americans have some confidence in news organizations to report accurate election results, only 32% have high confidence, with Democrats more trusting than Republicans, an October poll for the Medill Local News Initiative and the Alliance for Trust in Media found.
虽然大多数主要电视网都使用同一套美联社计票汇总数据来做出判定，但决定宣布胜选的机构会运用专有的数据分析、历史模型、出口民调访谈和专家判断相结合的方式，在认定结果已成统计学上的必然时宣布胜选。以下是运作方式：美联社计票与胜选判定 美联社作为一家由会员报社支持的非营利新闻编辑室，自1848年以来统计过美国每一次选举的选票，通过全国记者和选举官员网络核实结果。
While most of the major TV networks all use the same AP vote count tabulation to make their calls, the ones who decide to call winners use a proprietary mix of their own data analysis, historical models, exit poll interviews and expert judgment to call races when they determine that they've become a statistical certainty. Here's how it works: AP COUNTS AND RACE CALLS The AP, a nonprofit newsroom supported by member newspapers, has counted votes in every US election since 1848, working with a national network of reporters and election officials to verify results.
美联社表示，在2026年中期选举中，该社将部署4000多名记者进驻县选举办公室和地方投票站，负责收集数据并向美国广播公司新闻网、哥伦比亚广播公司新闻网、福克斯新闻、有线电视新闻网以及全国广播公司新闻网的决策台提供数据。美国广播公司、哥伦比亚广播公司、有线电视新闻网和全国广播公司还依赖于研究公司SSRS，该公司于2025年收购了出口民调公司爱迪生研究公司。
For the 2026 midterms, the AP said it would deploy more than 4,000 reporters at county election offices and local polling locations, gathering and providing data to the decision desks at ABC News, CBS News, Fox, CNN and NBC News. ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC also rely on research firm SSRS, which acquired exit-polling company Edison Research in 2025.
美联社在做出竞选预测时，会利用投票总数，并根据以往的投票模式和早期投票数据，估算剩余未清点的选票数量。只有在落后候选人无法追赶时，它才会宣布竞选结果。
When making calls, the AP uses vote totals and estimates how many votes remain uncounted based on past voting patterns and early-vote data. It calls a race only when the trailing candidate cannot catch up.
数据决定一切公司从官方州级来源（通常是州务卿或州选举部门）收集票数。
DDHQ collects vote counts from official state sources, usually secretaries of state or state election departments.
该公司利用统计分析、建模和专家评审来预测选举获胜者。其客户包括《新闻民族报》、《国会山报》和Newsmax新闻网，并且它最近签下了由埃隆·马斯克拥有的社交网络X。
The firm uses statistical analysis, modeling and expert review to project election winners. Its clients include NewsNation, the Hill and Newsmax, and it recently signed up X, the social network owned by Elon Musk.
除了部署地面记者外，它还使用自动化软件重复检查官方选举网站，并收集新发布的投票总数。数据决定一切公司表示，大约80%的选票是通过直接从官方选举网站提取数据或人工监控选举网站来处理的。其余票数则由记者收集。
It uses automated software to repeatedly check official election websites and collect newly posted vote totals in addition to using reporters on the ground. DDHQ says roughly 80% of all votes are processed by pulling data directly from official election sites, or by manually monitoring election sites. The remaining counts are collected by reporters.
它通过将选举官员报告的票数除以其估算的某场竞选的总投票率，来计算已清点选票的百分比。它通过从这一整体投票率估算值中减去已报告的票数来确定剩余选票，而这一估算值会在选举之夜利用实际数据进行修正。
It calculates the percentage of ballots counted by dividing the votes reported by election officials by its estimated total turnout for a race. It determines remaining votes by subtracting reported votes from this overall turnout estimate, which is refined on election night using actual data.
最终的预测需要团队全体一致同意，并由数据科学主管斯科特·特兰特签字批准。“我们正准备让数千人在选举之夜工作以收集数据，”特兰特对路透社说。
Final projections require unanimous team agreement and a sign-off from the head of data science, Scott Tranter. "We’re preparing to have several thousand people working on election night to gather data," Tranter told Reuters.
竞选预测可能会出错 收回预测的情况很少见，但美联社和数据决定一切公司过去都曾撤回过预测。
RACE PROJECTIONS CAN BE WRONG Retractions are rare, but both the AP and DDHQ have withdrawn calls in the past.
2025年，DDHQ撤回了对西雅图市长竞选的一项预测。今年早些时候，在新泽西州第11国会选区特别选举的民主党初选投票结束后，由于计票结果发生变化，使该选区局势偏离了最初的预测，DDHQ撤回了此前的预测结果。
In 2025, DDHQ withdrew a projection in the Seattle mayor's race. Earlier this year, DDHQ withdrew its call in the Democratic primary for a special election in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District after Election Day vote counts shifted the race away from its initial projection.
2018年，在加利福尼亚州第21国会选区中，一名被预测获胜的候选人落后之后，美联社在其发布选举预测的账号上发文称，由于民主党人T·J·科克斯在计票中领先，美联社正在撤回此前的预测。
In 2018, after a projected winner fell behind in California's 21st Congressional District, AP posted on its race-call account that it was retracting the call because Democrat T.J. Cox had taken the lead in the vote count.
做出选举预测的新闻机构 福克斯新闻的选举决策台将对所有全州范围内的竞选以及争夺众议院控制权和参议院控制权的竞选做出自己的预测。它使用美联社的计票数据并应用自身的分析。
THE NEWS OUTLETS MAKING RACE CALLS Fox's decision desk will be making its own calls in all statewide races as well as the calls for control of the House and control of the Senate. It uses the AP vote count and applies its own analysis.
MS NOW在脱离NBC环球的有线电视业务组合后首次报道中期选举，它将依赖美联社的选举预测。
MS NOW, covering its first midterms since separating from NBCUniversal's cable portfolio, will rely on the AP's race calls.
《纽约时报》在多数竞赛中依赖美联社的预测，但会利用选区层面的数据和“针式”模型对竞争激烈的竞选进行独立评估。它可能会在美联社之前或之后做出预测。
The New York Times relies on AP calls for most contests but independently reviews competitive races using precinct-level data and its Needle model. It may make a call before or after the AP.
彭博社不进行自己的选举预测。对于选举结果，它使用既定的第三方消息源。路透社也将引用其他新闻机构的选举预测。《华盛顿邮报》未回应关于它将如何进行选举预测的置评请求。
Bloomberg does not make its own race calls. For election results, it uses established third-party sources. Reuters will also be citing the race calls from other news organizations. The Washington Post did not respond to requests for comment on how it will call races.