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我们什么时候能知道2026年中期选举的结果?可能需要一些时间,但这很正常When will we know 2026 midterm election results? It may take some time, but that’s normal

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本文最初如果我们在选举之夜入睡时还不知道谁赢得了国会中期选举,这是正常的。如果在第二天早上醒来时发现几个小时前落后的候选人后来居上了,这也是正常的。这并不能阻止一些政客及其盟友在计票期间散布虚假信息。

This article originally If you go to bed on election night and don't know who won a midterm congressional race, that's normal. And if you wake up the next morning and find that a candidate who was behind hours earlier has since pulled ahead, that's normal, too. That won't stop some politicians and their allies from spreading misinformation during vote counting.

在过去的选举中,民选领导人、候选人和社交媒体用户曾散布虚假言论,称“深夜”到来的“选票倾倒”或“一箱箱”选票是舞弊的迹象,或者只有民主党领导的城市才需要几天时间来计票。

In past elections, elected leaders, candidates and social media users have spread falsehoods that "late night" arrivals of "ballot dumps" or "suitcases" of ballots are signs of fraud, or that only Democratic-led cities take days to count votes.

佛罗里达州等一些州通常比其他地方用更少的时间或天数就能完成大部分非正式计票。但如果其他地方需要更多时间,这并非舞弊的迹象。

Some states such as Florida often complete the majority of their unofficial counts in fewer hours or days than elsewhere. But it is not a sign of fraud if other places need more time.

“各州无所谓快慢,它们都是按照本州议会通过的法律来清点和认证结果的,”选举技术和网络安全专家瑞安·马西亚斯(Ryan Macias)说,“所谓快慢,是指媒体收集到足够证据来充满信心地预测获胜者的速度,这通常取决于获胜的票数差距。”

"States are neither fast or slow, they all count and certify the results in accordance with the laws passed by their state legislature," said Ryan Macias, an election technology and cybersecurity expert. "What is fast or slow is how quickly the media can collect sufficient evidence to confidently predict the winner, which is typically based on the margin of victory."

选民可以协助选举顺利进行。例如,通过邮寄投票的人不应等到最后一刻才提交选票。许多选举办公室提供安全的投递箱,以加速邮寄选票的回收。美国邮政服务公司建议选民在截止日期前至少一周寄出选票。

Voters can help elections run smoothly. People who vote by mail, for instance, should not wait until the last minute to submit their ballots. Many election offices provide secure drop boxes to speed the return of mailed ballots. The U.S. Postal Service recommends that voters mail in their ballot at least one week before the deadline.

“总会有少数几场选情胶着的参议院和众议院竞选,其获胜者需要数天时间才能决定,而在阿拉斯加州和加利福尼亚州,则可能需要长达一周或两周的时间,”负责在选举日进行全国出口民调的SSRS公司执行副总裁乔·伦斯基(Joe Lenski)说。

"There are always a handful of really close Senate and House races in which the winner will not be determined for several days or, in the cases of Alaska and California, as much as a week or two," said Joe Lenski, executive vice president of SSRS, which conducts a national exit poll on Election Day.

美国参议院的控制权可能取决于少数几场选情胶着且有大量选票需要清点的竞选。

Control of the U.S. Senate could come down to a handful of close races with large numbers of ballots to count.

没有任何州被要求在选举之夜完成正式计票。各州法律规定了认证最终结果的截止日期,通常是在数周之后。以下是可能影响非官方结果出炉时间的因素。

No state is required to complete the official count on election night. State laws set deadlines to certify final results, often weeks later. Here's a look at what could influence the timing of unofficial results.

票数差距悬殊度 民调和无党派分析显示,许多美国参议院选举竞争激烈,包括密歇根州、缅因州、艾奥瓦州、阿拉斯加州、堪萨斯州和得克萨斯州。如果在投票结束后最初的几个小时甚至几天内,计票结果依然胶着,媒体可能不得不等待官员统计更多选票,之后记者才能预测获胜者。一些势均力敌的选举可能会以数天或数周后完成的重新计票告终。2018年,佛罗里达州的三场全州范围选举就是在重新计票中尘埃落定的。

Close margins Polls and nonpartisan analysis show many U.S. Senate races are competitive, including in Michigan, Maine, Iowa, Alaska, Kansas and Texas. If the counts are close in the first few hours or even days after polls close, media outlets may have to wait for officials to count more ballots until journalists can project a winner. Some close races could end in a recount completed days or weeks later. In 2018, three Florida statewide races were settled in recounts.

在计票初期领先的候选人最终可能不会胜出。2020年,唐纳德·特朗普在选举之夜早期于威斯康星州领先超过10万票,但在密尔沃基的中央计票中心于当地时间凌晨3点30分左右处理完邮寄选票后,局势迅速发生了变化。乔·拜登从密尔沃基获得的这波深夜助力是在预料之中的,尤其是因为威斯康星州的邮寄选票往往倾向于民主党。

Candidates who lead early in the vote count may not ultimately win. In 2020, Donald Trump was up by more than 100,000 votes in Wisconsin early in the night, but the picture quickly shifted after Milwaukee's central count finished processing mail-in votes around 3:30 a.m local time. The late boost for Joe Biden from Milwaukee was expected, especially because Wisconsin's mail-in ballots tend to skew Democratic.

计票的时间模式,以及这些司法管辖区选民的政治倾向,因州而异。

The pattern of when votes are counted — and what political leanings those jurisdictions' voters tend to have — varies by state.

邮寄选票的数量和接收截止日期 处理邮寄选票需要时间。选举工作人员必须验证选民身份,例如,通过将信封上的签名与登记记录进行核对。

Mail ballot volume and receipt deadlines It takes time to process mail ballots. Election workers must verify voter identity, for example, by matching envelope signatures against registration records.

包括佛罗里达州在内的多数州都要求在选举日当天或之前收到邮寄选票。但一些州允许选民在晚些时候寄回选票,只要这些选票在选举日当天或之前加盖邮戳即可。

Most states, including Florida, require that mail ballots be received by Election Day. But some states allow voters to return ballots later as long as they were postmarked by Election Day.

在几乎完全采用邮寄投票的加利福尼亚州,只要在选举日当天或之前加盖邮戳并在随后一周内收到的选票都是允许的。美国最高法院今年6月维持了各州采取此类政策的权利,这对特朗普是一个打击,他曾表示希望加快计票流程,并散布了关于加州计票的虚假言论。关于2026年中期选举安全的5项专家要点俄亥俄州在2025年通过了一项法律,规定绝大多数缺席选票必须在选举日投票结束前送达;在此之前,该州曾设有四天的宽限期。

In California, which runs nearly all-mail elections, ballots postmarked by Election Day and received up to a week later are permitted. The U.S. Supreme Court in June upheld the right of states to have such a policy, a blow to Trump, who says he wants a faster process and has spread falsehoods about California's vote counting. 5 expert takeaways on 2026 midterm election security Ohio passed a law in 2025 that said most absentee ballots must be received by the close of polls on Election Day; previously it had a four-day grace period.

在加利福尼亚州,各县必须在选举后的第13天内完成对大多数选票的计票并公布结果。对此有一些例外情况,包括临时选票以及需要进行签名核实的邮寄选票;选举官员应在选举后30天内完成对这些选票的清点。

In California, counties must count and report the results from most ballots by the 13th day after the election. There are some exceptions to that, including for provisional ballots and mail ballots with signature verification needs; election officials should be done counting those within 30 days after the election.

伦斯基表示,在全美众议院竞选中,总会有少数几个选区无法在选举之夜或次日得出结果,其中大部分位于加利福尼亚州。最后一刻提交的缺席选票:密歇根州案例研究当数以千计的选民拖到最后一刻才寄出邮寄选票时,选举工作人员就需要额外的时间来处理和清点这些选票。在过去的选举中,一些人曾在底特律等地散布关于此类“延迟”的虚假信息,将深夜抵达的运送选票的货车指为舞弊的证据。

In U.S. House races, there are always a handful of districts that are not called on election night or the day after, mostly in California, Lenski said. Last minute absentee ballot submissions: A Michigan case study When thousands of voters procrastinate sending in their mail ballots until the last minute, it takes election workers extra time to process and count those ballots. In past elections, some people have spread falsehoods about such "delays" in places like Detroit, pointing to vans with ballots arriving late at night as evidence of foul play.

美国参议院竞选的获胜者可能要等到官员能够清点几乎所有底特律的选票后才能明朗。

The winner of the U.S. Senate race may not be clear until officials can count nearly all of Detroit's ballots.

底特律拥有50多万名选民,当地选举官员预计他们将在选举之夜公布约95%的选票结果。

With more than a half million voters, Detroit election officials predict they will report results for approximately 95% of ballots on election night.

底特律选举运营主管丹尼尔·A·巴克斯特表示:“这是一个估计,而不是法定期限或保证。”

"It is an estimate, not a statutory deadline or guarantee," said Daniel A. Baxter, Detroit elections chief of operations.

其中的变数是在选举日晚上8点(密歇根州法律规定的截止时间)之前收到的缺席选民选票数量。巴克斯特称,官员们将竭尽合理努力在凌晨4点前完成记票,不过如果大量缺席选票在截止时间临近时涌入,则可能需要更长时间。

The variable is the number of absentee voter ballots received by 8 p.m. on Election Day (the deadline in Michigan law). Baxter said officials will make every reasonable effort to complete tabulation by 4 a.m., though it could take longer if a ton of absentee ballots arrive near the deadline.

截至10月26日晚,底特律10.6万张缺席选民选票中大约有一半已被交回。

As of the evening of Oct. 26, about half of the 106,000 absent voter ballots in Detroit had been returned.

底特律市面积约140平方公里,设有38个选票投递箱。投票结束后,选举工作人员需要花上几个小时收集选票,并用卡车将其运送至亨廷顿广场进行计票。

Detroit, a city that spans about 140 square miles, has 38 drop boxes. It takes a few hours after the polls close for election workers to collect ballots and bring them in a truck to Huntington Place for tabulation.

密歇根州特洛伊等规模较小的城市拥有6.6万名选民,只设有少数几个选票投递箱。城市书记官M·艾琳·迪克森表示,在过去的选举中,特洛伊在午夜前就已经完成了计票工作。

Smaller Michigan cities such as Troy, home to 66,000 voters, have a handful of drop boxes. During past elections, City Clerk M. Aileen Dickson said, Troy has finished counting ballots before midnight.

准备计票工作 没有任何州会在投票结束前公布邮寄选票的结果。但一些州允许选举官员在选举日之前开始处理邮寄选票。这意味着他们可以核实选票是由合格选民提交的,包括核对签名,通常还会将选票从内部安全信封中取出、摊平并叠好。

Preparing ballots for counting No state posts mail ballot results before the polls close. But some allow election officials to begin processing mail ballots before Election Day. That means they can verify that the ballot was submitted by a valid voter, including checking signatures and often removing the ballot from the inner security envelope, flattening it and stacking it.

选举官员可以采取哪些步骤以及何时采取,根据各州法律而有所不同。包括新罕布什尔州在内的少数几个州不允许在选举日之前开始这一流程。

The steps election officials can take and when vary according to their state laws. A handful of states including New Hampshire don't allow the process to begin until Election Day.

排序选择投票制 有两个拥有竞争激烈的美国参议院竞选的州采用排序选择投票制:缅因州和阿拉斯加州。该系统允许选民按偏好顺序对候选人进行排序。

Ranked choice voting Two states with competitive U.S. Senate races use ranked choice voting: Maine and Alaska. The system allows voters to rank their candidates in order of preference.

如果某位候选人获得超过50%的第一选择票,竞选随即结束。如果没有,得票最少的候选人将被淘汰,而将该候选人列为第一选择的选民的选票将重新分配给他们的第二选择。这一过程不断重复,直到有一位候选人赢得超过50%的选票。

If a candidate wins more than 50% of first choices, then that ends the race. If not, the candidate who received the fewest votes is eliminated and voters who ranked that candidate first have their vote re-allocated to their second choice. That process repeats until a candidate wins over 50% of the vote.

阿拉斯加州在选举日后15天内仍接收从美国境外寄出的选票,并且有漫长的选票统计历史,需要这么长时间才能完成计票。

Alaska accepts ballots mailed from outside the U.S. for 15 days after Election Day and has a long history of close races that take that long to count.

今年加利福尼亚州的竞选计票时间可能会比阿拉斯加州更长,任何竞选重新计票都可能持续到12月甚至更久。2024年北卡罗来纳州最高法院的一场竞争激烈的选举历时大约六个月才得出最终结果。

California races could take longer to count than Alaska this year, and any race recounts could run into December or beyond. A 2024 contested North Carolina state Supreme Court race did not lead to a resolution for about six months.

在阿拉斯加州,选票上有四位参议员候选人,其中包括现任共和党参议员丹·S·沙利文(Dan S. Sullivan),以及将以无党派身份出现在选票上的小丹尼尔·J·沙利文(Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.)。美国司法部于10月22日采取了一项不同寻常的举动,提起了一起诉讼,声称存在选民混淆的情况,并寻求在现任议员落败的情况下阻止选举结果认证。代表民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉(Mary Peltola)的律师已要求法院驳回此案。

In Alaska, there are four Senate candidates on the ballot including Republican incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., who will appear on the ballot without a party affiliation. In an unusual move, the U.S. Justice Department filed a lawsuit Oct. 22 seeking to block certification if the incumbent loses, alleging voter confusion. Lawyers on behalf of Mary Peltola, the Democrat, have asked the court to dismiss the case.

缅因州最终可能会采用排序选择投票,因为共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯(Susan Collins)和民主党挑战者特洛伊·杰克逊(Troy Jackson)以及六名登记外候选人都出现在选票上。

Maine could end up in ranked choice voting because Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson appear on the ballot along with six write-in candidates.

缅因州州务卿谢娜·贝洛斯(Shenna Bellows)对《政客》杂志(PolitiFact)表示,各市镇将报告第一轮计票结果,随后该州将在次日或后天知晓是否将进行排序选择投票。历史上,该州在选举后的一周内就会知道排序选择的结果。

Municipalities report the results from the first round and then the state will know either the next day or the day after if it will proceed with ranked choice, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows told PolitiFact. Historically, the state has known the ranked choice outcome the week after the election.

贝洛斯说:“我们将尽最大努力以最快、最高效的方式尽快得出结果,但最重要的是结果要准确并反映选民的意愿。”

"We will work as expeditiously and efficiently as possible to get results as quickly as we can," Bellows said, "but what is most important is that it is accurate and reflects the will of voters."

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