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我们何时能知道选举结果?别抱太大希望When Will We Know Election Outcomes? Don’t Hold Your Breath.

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何时才能得知选举结果?别屏住呼吸。专家表示,包括缅因州、阿拉斯加州、亚利桑那州和加利福尼亚州在内的关键州,可能需要数天甚至数周才能确认获胜者,这些州的结果可能决定国会的控制权。周二晚上,数百万美国人将收看选举结果。

When Will We Know Election Results? Don’t Hold Your Breath. Experts say it could take days and even weeks before winners are known in key states including Maine, Alaska, Arizona and California that could determine who controls Congress. On Tuesday evening, millions of Americans will tune in to watch election returns.

他们不应屏住呼吸。如果以往经验为参考,所有 50 州的完整投票结果不太可能在周二转为周三时就已知晓。专家称,出于各种原因,包括缅因州、阿拉斯加州、亚利桑那州和加利福尼亚州在内的州,可能需要数天甚至数周才能得出结果。

They shouldn’t hold their breath. If history is any guide, the full results of voting from all 50 states are not likely to be known by the time Tuesday turns to Wednesday. Experts say that for various reasons, it could take days and even weeks before results are known in states including Maine, Alaska, Arizona and California.

这些州的选举可能决定国会的权力平衡——也可能不会。无法确定全国是否会在睡前得知哪个党派掌控众议院和参议院。鉴于今年几乎所有关键参议院竞选都异常胶着,包括阿拉斯加和缅因在内,众议院的控制权更有可能提前明朗。

Races in those states might determine the balance of power in Congress — and they might not. It’s impossible to say if the nation will know before bedtime which party controls the House and the Senate. The chances are greater that control of the House will be known, given how tight virtually all of the key Senate races are this year, including in Alaska and Maine.

部分延迟源于选民数量庞大,另一些则因地理挑战或各州对何时可接受并计数邮寄选票的规定不同。缅因州和阿拉斯加州采用排名选择制的决选投票方式,这也会拖慢进程。

Some of the delays have to do with the sheer numbers of voters, while others stem from challenges of geography, or state-specific rules about when mail ballots can be accepted and counted. Maine and Alaska use a ranked-choice runoff voting system, which can also slow the process.

选举结果需要时间整理并非美国独有。但等待过程会让候选人和公众感到沮丧。近年来,结果滞后常被一些政治人物利用,最显著的是特朗普总统,他借此填补信息空白,散布选举过程存在欺诈的虚假说法。特朗普在 2020 年曾公开宣称选举存在欺诈,当时大量有利于其对手乔·拜登的邮寄选票在选举日后被计入,导致特朗普输掉选举,而他至今仍否认败选。

The fact that elections often take time to sort out is not unique to the United States. But the wait can be frustrating for candidates and the public. And in recent years, lagging results have served as a cue for some politicians, most notably President Trump, to fill the void with false claims that the process is marked by fraud. Mr. Trump famously made that claim in 2020, as large numbers of mail votes favoring his challenger, Joseph R. Biden Jr., were counted after Election Day, dooming Mr. Trump to a loss that he continues to deny.

6月,加利福尼亚州初选后持续数日的计票过程促使特朗普重提此类言论,声称民主党的“大规模舞弊”玷污了结果。“为什么计票要延迟???”总统在一条社交媒体帖子中写道。

In June, a multiday process of counting votes after California’s primary prompted Mr. Trump to revive such talk, asserting that “BIG cheating” by Democrats had tainted the results. “Why the vote counting DELAY???” the president wrote in one social media post.

事实上,加利福尼亚州初选并无舞弊证据,但确定洛杉矶市长竞选结果花了六天,宣布州长竞选结果花了七天。

There was, in fact, no evidence of cheating in the California primary, but it took six days to determine the results of the Los Angeles mayor’s race, and seven to call the results for governor.

2024年,确定加利福尼亚州最胶着的众议院竞选胜者花了三周时间。

In 2024, it took three weeks to determine the winner in California’s closest House races.

公众必须等待多久才能得知谁获胜,往往取决于竞争有多激烈。选举专家区分官员完成计票所需时间和新闻媒体为某位候选人“宣布”当选所需时间。《美联社》是最知名的宣布选举结果的机构之一(《纽约时报》大多数宣布结果依赖美联社),当该媒体的分析显示落后候选人已无获胜路径时,就会宣布结果。

The amount of time the public must wait to learn who wins is often a function of how close a race is. Election experts distinguish between the time it takes for officials to complete their counts and the time it takes for news media to “call” an election for one candidate or another. The Associated Press is one of the most prominent callers of races (The New York Times relies on The A.P. for most calls), doing so when the outlet’s analysis shows that a trailing candidate no longer has a path to victory.

有时宣布结果发生在选举之夜,有时则需要更长时间。2020年,美联社在大选四天后宣布拜登赢得总统大选。二十年前,小布什与戈尔的总统大选过于胶着,以至于美联社根本未宣布结果。最终,美国最高法院裁决该竞选,在著名的“布什诉戈尔案”中裁定小布什胜诉。

Sometimes the call occurs on election night. Sometimes it takes longer. In 2020, The A.P. called the presidential race for Mr. Biden four days after the election. Two decades earlier, the presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore was so close that The A.P. did not call it at all. In the end, the U.S. Supreme Court settled the race, ruling in favor of Mr. Bush in the famous case Bush v. Gore.

“公众对一个州计票速度的看法,很可能更多地取决于媒体宣布结果的速度,而不是选票实际计数的速度,”布雷南司法中心选举与政府项目副总裁、选举法智库专家劳伦斯·诺登说。“如果竞争非常激烈——我是说真的非常、非常激烈——那么无论他们数选票多快都没用。这都得花上几天时间。”这对亚利桑那州民主党籍州务卿阿德里安·方特斯等选举官员来说是个挑战。

“The public’s perception of how quickly a state is counting is probably more related to how quickly the race is called by the media than how quickly ballots are being counted,” said Lawrence Norden, vice president of the election and government program at the Brennan Center for Justice, an election law think tank. “If a race is really close — like, really, really close — it doesn’t matter how fast they’re counting the ballots. It’s going to take a few days.”That can be a challenge for election officials like Adrian Fontes, the Democratic secretary of state in Arizona.

“我们是一个摇摆州,我们的得票差距非常小,”方特斯先生说。“因为差距更小,当电视网和新闻机构无法在选举之夜做出预测时,大家就会坐立难安。”今年在阿拉斯加,选民将对一场备受关注的美国参议院竞选发表意见,现任共和党参议员丹·S·沙利文将对阵民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉。

“We are a battleground state, and our margins are very close,” Mr. Fontes said. “Because we have tighter margins, folks get antsy when the networks and the news agencies can’t make their predictions on election night.”In Alaska this year, voters will weigh in on one of the most closely watched races for the U.S. Senate, which pits the incumbent, Dan S. Sullivan, a Republican, against Mary Peltola, a Democrat.

如果正如民调所显示的那样陷入胶着,可能就得让人捏把汗了。该州规定,只要在选举日后10天内收到邮寄选票(海外选民为15天)即予计数。(选票必须在选举日当天或之前加盖邮戳。)这种宽裕的时间安排反映了在阿拉斯加辽阔的地域、复杂的地形以及有时恶劣的天气条件下投递邮件的挑战。

If it turns out to be a nail-biter, as polls suggest, it may call for long nails. The state counts mail ballots if they are received within 10 days of Election Day, or 15 days for overseas voters. (The ballots must be postmarked on or before Election Day.) The generous timeline reflects the challenge of delivering the mail across Alaska’s vast distances and challenging terrain, and sometimes in brutal weather conditions.

如果阿拉斯加这场竞选中没有候选人获得50%的选票,该州将启动其排序复选制的第二轮计票——但仅在海外选票15天等待期结束后。今年这个50%门槛可能尤为重要,因为四人名单上还有一位叫丹·沙利文的男子。这位沙利文先生是作为民主党策略的一部分被招募参选的,目的是分流现任参议员沙利文先生的选票。

If none of the candidates in the Alaska race receives 50 percent of the vote, the state initiates the second round of its ranked-choice system — but only after the 15-day waiting period for overseas ballots. The 50 percent threshold could be particularly important this year, because the four-person ballot includes another man named Dan Sullivan. This Mr. Sullivan was recruited as part of a Democratic effort to siphon votes away from the incumbent Mr. Sullivan.

这一策略引发了司法部的诉讼,司法部请求联邦法院在现任者以微弱劣势落败时阻止认证。周日,法院驳回了该诉讼,但政府提出了上诉。

The ploy triggered a lawsuit from the Justice Department, which asked a federal court to block certification if the incumbent narrowly loses. On Sunday, the court dismissed the suit, but the government appealed.

另一场备受关注的美国参议院竞选在缅因州进行,该州也在部分选举中采用排序复选制。

One of the other closely watched U.S. Senate contests is in Maine, which also uses ranked-choice voting for some races.

与阿拉斯加不同,缅因州要求邮寄选票必须在选举日投票结束前由当地书记官收到。但排序复选制的第二轮计票可能会延迟结果。布伦南中心的另一位选举专家德里克·蒂斯勒表示,如果没有候选人在第一轮获得投出选票的50%,缅因州官员将进行第二轮排序复选决选,这将需要数天时间。

Unlike Alaska, Maine requires that mail ballots be received by local clerks before polls close on Election Day. But a ranked-choice second round could delay the results. Derek Tisler, another elections expert at Brennan, said that if no candidate receives 50 percent of the ballots cast in the first round, Maine officials will conduct a second, ranked-choice runoff round, which will take several days.

蒂斯勒先生指出,缅因州参议员席位的选票上只有两名候选人——共和党现任议员苏珊·柯林斯和民主党挑战者特洛伊·杰克逊——这使得其中一人很有可能在第一轮就超过50%的门槛。但他表示,这并非板上钉钉,因为还有几名写入候选人参选。

Mr. Tisler noted that there were only two candidates on the ballot for the Senate seat in Maine — Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent, and Troy Jackson, the Democratic challenger — making it likely that one of them will surpass the 50 percent threshold in the first round. But that is not a given, he said, as several write-in candidates are running as well.

专家表示,如果以史为鉴,亚利桑那州和加利福尼亚州也可能需要一些时间来决出胜者。

Experts say that if history is any guide, Arizona and California may also take some time to sort out their winners.

加利福尼亚州有一个为期七天的期限,在此期间,选举日当天或之前盖有邮戳的晚到邮寄选票可以被计数。亚利桑那州没有这样的期限。但这两个州都以晚到选票数量大而闻名。

California has a seven-day period in which late-arriving mail votes postmarked on or before Election Day may be counted. Arizona does not have such a period. But both states are known for a high volume of late-arriving ballots.

蒂斯勒先生说:“不管出于什么原因,选民倾向于等到最后一刻才寄回选票。所以直到选举前几天,甚至选举日当天,选举官员才能开始采取所有步骤来核实签名、核实选民信息,最后才能计票。”在加利福尼亚州,立法者今年同意拨款4000万美元用于加快流程,包括发起宣传活动鼓励选民更早寄回选票。

“For whatever reason, voters tend to wait until the last minute to return their ballots,” Mr. Tisler said. “So it’s not really until the few days before the election, or even Election Day, that election officials can start taking all those steps to verify signatures, verify the voters’ information, and then finally count the ballots.”In California, lawmakers this year agreed to allocate $40 million toward speeding up the process, including initiating a publicity campaign encouraging voters to return their ballots earlier.

丰特斯表示,亚利桑那州也在努力加快进度。在选民众多的马里科帕县,新系统允许邮寄选民走进投票站,向工作人员出示身份证件后投递邮寄选票,从而避免了此类选票通常需要经历的耗时较长的签名验证程序。

Mr. Fontes said Arizona was also working to speed things up. In vote-rich Maricopa County, a new system allows mail voters to walk into polling places and drop their mail ballot off while showing a poll worker their ID, thus avoiding the time-consuming signature-verification process to which such ballots are normally subjected.

这可能对一些人有所帮助。但这一切都无法保证阴谋论不会再次蔓延。

It may help some. But none of that guarantees against the possibility that conspiracies will spread again.

“现在我们只能在舆论空间里对抗这些毫无根据的指控,”丰特斯说,“而不是能够专心做好本职工作,把所有时间和精力都花在服务选民上。”

“Now we just have to fight against these unfounded allegations in the rhetorical space,” Mr. Fontes said, “versus just being able to do our jobs and spend all of our time and energy taking care of voters.”

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