参议院领袖可能要等到 11 月底才能猜出谁将控制该议院，这要归因于一系列胶着的竞选以及各州特定的投票规则。
Senate leaders could be guessing who will control the chamber well into November, thanks to a slew of tight races and state-specific voting rules.
为何重要：共和党占多数将减轻参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩快速推进提名的压力，而民主党占多数将给参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默在跛脚鸭会期中更多筹码。
Why it matters: A GOP majority would ease the pressure on Senate Majority Leader John Thune to move quickly on nominations, while a Democratic majority would give Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer more leverage in the lame-duck session.
- 如果参议院以 50 比 50 平分，领袖们将不得不开始谈判权力分享协议。
• If the chamber splits 50/50, leaders will have to start negotiating their power-sharing agreement.
聚焦：四个州可能让多数党归属陷入僵局。
Zoom in: Four states could leave the majority in limbo.
- 阿拉斯加州：参议员丹·沙利文（共和党）正试图击退前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉（民主党）的挑战。由于该辽阔州份的交通挑战、邮寄选票和排序选择制计票，阿拉斯加选举结果数周来一直未能最终确定。特朗普司法部正抢先试图阻止结果最终确定，以防沙利文以微弱劣势落败。
• Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) is trying to fend off former Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Alaska election results have taken weeks to finalize because of the vast state's transportation challenges, mail ballots and ranked-choice tabulation. The Trump Justice Department is preemptively trying to block results from being finalized if Sullivan narrowly loses.
- 缅因州的排序选择制投票可能会延长计票时间，如果参议员苏珊·柯林斯（共和党-缅因州）或民主党提名人特洛伊·杰克逊在首轮均未获得超过 50% 的选票。
• Maine's ranked-choice voting could lengthen the vote tallying if neither Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) nor Democratic nominee Troy Jackson gets more than 50% in the first round.
- 堪萨斯州邮寄选票的三天宽限期可能会推迟民主党提名人亚当·汉密尔顿与参议员罗杰·马歇尔（共和党-堪萨斯州）竞选的结果。该竞选的胶着程度远超预期。
• Kansas' three-day grace period for mail-in ballots could delay results in the race between Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton and Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.). It is far closer than expected.
- 在得克萨斯州，可能会出现漫长的重新计票。如果差距小于胜者得票总数的 10%，候选人可以请求重新计票——这极有可能发生在州检察长肯·帕克斯顿（共和党）与州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科（民主党）之间。请求重新计票的候选人须自行承担费用。
• In Texas, a dragged-out recount could be coming. A candidate can request one if the margin is less than 10% of the winner's vote total — which is likely to happen between state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) and state Rep. James Talarico (D). The candidate who requests it has to pay. The clock:
时间表：国会目前计划于 12 月 18 日开始假期休会。
Congress currently plans to leave for the holidays on Dec. 18.
- 但如果共和党同时失去众参两院控制权，参议员伯尼·莫雷诺（共和党-俄亥俄州）希望参议员们留在华盛顿，一直工作到假期结束（包括感恩节和圣诞节），以推进一项无需民主党支持即可通过的大规模共和党和解方案。
• But if Republicans lose both the House and Senate, Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) wants senators to stay in town through the holidays (yes, Thanksgiving and Christmas) to work on a massive GOP reconciliation package they can pass without Democratic support. The big picture:
大局：无论哪种情况，国会都面临一长串待办事项，包括在12月11日后为政府提供资金、通过紧急国防开支法案，并可能提高债务上限。
Congress has a long to-do list either way, including funding the government past Dec. 11, passing emergency defense spending and potentially raising the debt ceiling.
- 国会需要通过《国防授权法案》、《农业法案》和许可改革法案，重新授权《外国情报监视法》第702条下的无证窃听权力，并在年底前确认提名人选，否则这些提名将失效。
• It needs to pass the National Defense Authorization Act, Farm Bill and permitting reform, reauthorize the warrantless wiretap authority under FISA Section 702 and confirm nominations before they expire at the end of the year.
核心看点：“我猜这有可能在今年发生，”参议员辛西娅·拉米斯（共和党-怀俄明州）今天对记者表示，指的是在假期休会期间继续留在华盛顿工作。
The bottom line: "I'm guessing that's a possibility this year," Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) told reporters today about working in D.C. through the holiday recess.