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福克斯新闻网

参议院控制权胜负难料——民主党之路须穿过特朗普地盘Senate control is a coin flip — and Democrats’ path runs through Trump Country

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距离选举日仅剩六天,参议院控制权之争似乎陷入胶着,通往多数党地位的道路主要穿过唐纳德·特朗普总统在2024年赢得的那些州。

With six days to go until Election Day, the battle for control of the Senate appears to be a jump ball, with the road to the majority running mostly through states President Donald Trump won in 2024.

虽然中期选举前的最终福克斯新闻权力排名显示出三个朝民主党有利方向的关键变化,但民主党夺回参议院的希望寄托于在所谓的“特朗普地区”翻盘席位。

While the final Fox News Power Rankings ahead of the midterms revealed three key shifts in the direction of the Democrats, their hopes of retaking the Senate hinge on flipping seats in so-called Trump Country.

共和党为守住其在众参两院微弱的多数优势而战,同时也在与政治历史规律抗争,执政党在中期选举年通常会失去席位。共和党还面临充满挑战的政治环境,持续的通胀部分归因于民调显示不受欢迎的对伊朗战争,以及特朗普日益负面的支持率。

As they fight to hold their slim House and Senate majorities, Republicans are fighting political history, as the party in power in Washington has traditionally lost seats during midterm election years. The GOP also faces a challenging political climate fueled by persistent inflation tied in part to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran and Trump's increasingly negative approval ratings.

共和党目前以53比47控制参议院,福克斯新闻权力排名将参议院控制权之争评为势均力敌。

Republicans currently control the Senate 53-47, with the Fox News Power Rankings rating the race for Senate control a toss-up.

根据预测,双方均距多数席位还差三席。民主党在48个席位上占优,共和党在47个席位上领先。共和党需守住50个席位才能保持对参议院的控制,因为共和党副总统JD·万斯拥有参议院的决定性一票。

Both parties are three seats short of a majority, according to the forecast. Democrats are favored in 48 seats and Republicans are ahead in 47. The GOP needs to hold 50 seats to retain control of the chamber, since Republican Vice President JD Vance is the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

如果民主党乘“蓝色浪潮”赢得大部分或所有竞争激烈的席位,他们在中期选举中最多可能获得53个席位。

If Democrats ride a blue wave to victory by winning most or all of the competitive races, they could potentially come away from the midterms with up to 53 seats.

福克斯新闻参议院选情预测实力排行榜。(雷米·努马/福克斯新闻)Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast. (Remy Numa/Fox News)

但如果共和党表现超预期,根据预测,共和党最多可保住52个席位维持多数优势。

But if Republicans have a good night and defy expectations, the GOP could hold the majority with up to 52 seats, according to the forecast.

俄亥俄州是福克斯新闻在最终权力排名中做出的三个调整之一。该州从“势均力敌”调整为“倾向民主党”。同时,南卡罗来纳州从“倾向共和党”调整为“倾向共和党”(注:原文为Likely Republican到Lean Republican,中文常译为“倾向共和党”到“略微倾向共和党”,但此处按原意译为“倾向共和党”到“倾向共和党”可能存笔误,建议核对原文;此处按原文直译),密西西比州从“稳固共和党”调整为“倾向共和党”。

Ohio is one of the three shifts Fox News made in the final Power Rankings. It shifted from toss-up to Lean Democrat. Meanwhile, South Carolina moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, and Mississippi from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

在倾向共和党的俄亥俄州,前资深民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗正在挑战获任命的共和党参议员乔恩·休斯特德,争夺时任参议员万斯于2022年赢得的该参议员任期剩余两年。

In red-leaning Ohio, former longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging appointed GOP Sen. Jon Husted in the race to fill the final two years of the Senate term then-Sen. Vance won in 2022.

在稳固的共和党大本营南卡罗来纳州,民主党挑战者、儿科医生安妮·安德鲁斯正在挑战获委任的参议员达琳·格雷厄姆,角逐接替该参议员已故兄长、参议员林赛·格雷厄姆的席位,后者于7月意外去世。

In solidly Republican South Carolina, Democratic challenger Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, is taking on appointed Sen. Darlene Graham in the race to succeed the senator's older brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, who unexpectedly died in July.

而在密西西比州,特朗普两年前以33个百分点的优势拿下该州,共和党参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯面临民主党籍地区检察官斯科特·科洛姆的挑战。

And in Mississippi, a state Trump carried by 33 points two years ago, Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith faces a challenge from Democratic District Attorney Scott Colom.

另一个红州堪萨斯州在最终权力排名中仍被评为“倾向共和党”。共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔面临艰难的连选连任,对手是民主党人、牧师亚当·汉密尔顿。

Kansas, another red state, remains Lean Republican in the final Power Rankings. GOP Sen. Roger Marshall is facing a rough re-election as he battles Democrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor.

共和党也在阿拉斯加、爱荷华、缅因和得克萨斯州处于防守姿态,这四个州在权力排名中均被评为“势均力敌”。

Republicans are also playing defense in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Texas, which are all rated toss-ups in the Power Rankings.

在倾向共和党的阿拉斯加,共和党参议员丹·沙利文面对前民主党众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉。在共和党控制的爱荷华州,共和党众议员阿什利·欣森与民主党州众议员乔什·图雷克正在争夺接替即将退休的共和党参议员乔尼·恩斯特的席位。

In red-leaning Alaska, GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan faces former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola. In Republican-controlled Iowa, GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek are battling to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.

资深共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯正在倾向民主党的缅因州为连任而战,对手是民主党挑战者特洛伊·杰克逊,前州参议院议长。而在倾向共和党的得克萨斯州,州检察长肯·帕克斯顿正与民主党州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科陷入一场耗资巨大且争议激烈的对决,角逐接替资深共和党参议员约翰·科宁的席位,后者在一场火药味十足的共和党初选中被帕克斯顿击败。

Longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins is fighting for re-election in blue-leaning Maine against Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president. And in red-leaning Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton is locked in an expensive and contentious showdown with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the race to succeed longtime GOP Sen. John Cornyn, who was ousted by Paxton in a combustible Republican primary.

共和党希望在密歇根州转入进攻,该州是权力排名中列为“势均力敌”的第五个州。前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯将挑战民主党提名人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德,角逐接替即将退休的民主党参议员加里·彼得斯的席位。

Republicans hope to go on offense in Michigan, the fifth state listed as a toss-up in the Power Rankings. Former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers is taking on Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrats' nominee, in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.

共和党还试图在两个被评为“倾向民主党”的蓝州翻转参议院席位。

The GOP is also trying to flip Senate seats in two blue states listed as Lean Democrat.

在新罕布什尔州,前共和党参议员约翰·E·苏努努正与民主党众议员克里斯·帕帕斯对决,角逐接替即将退休的民主党参议员珍妮·沙欣的席位。

In New Hampshire, former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu is facing off against Rep. Chris Pappas, a Democrat, in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

与此同时,在倾向民主党的明尼苏达州,民主党籍参议员蒂娜·史密斯(Tina Smith)即将退休,共和党提名人、前NBC资深体育播音员米歇尔·塔福亚(Michele Tafoya)将与民主党籍副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根(Peggy Flanagan)展开角逐。距离选举日不足一周,仍有大量选民未作决定。

Meanwhile, in blue-tilting Minnesota where Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is retiring, Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, a former longtime NBC sportscaster, is taking on Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a Democrat. With less than a week until Election Day, there are still plenty of undecided votes.

福克斯新闻撰稿人、该台“权力排名”栏目负责人雷米·努马(Remy Numa)指出:“在阿拉斯加、爱荷华和堪萨斯这三个近期有高质量民调的州,平均有10%的选民表示,他们尚未决定支持哪位主要候选人,或者不会支持主要候选人。”

"In Alaska, Iowa and Kansas, three states with recent high-quality polling, an average of 10% of voters say they haven’t decided who they will support or won’t support the major candidates," noted Remy Numa, a Fox News contributor who steers the network's Power Rankings.

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