之前特朗普时期的中期选举与今年的竞争有两个主要区别。第一个区别是总统的支持率，现在比2018年特朗普总统第一任期或2022年拜登总统任期时的支持率更低。
There are two big differences between the previous Trump-era midterms and this year’s contest. The first is the president’s approval rating, which is lower now than it was during President Donald Trump’s first term in 2018 or President Joe Biden’s term in 2022.
第二个区别是民主党在普选票上的领先优势，这一优势比2018年“蓝色浪潮”选举时更大且更持久，也远大于共和党在2022年所拥有的优势。
The second is Democrats’ generic ballot lead, which is wider and more enduring than it was in the 2018 "blue wave" election and much larger than the edge the GOP had in 2022.
考虑到民主党候选人质量的提升以及共和党主导的重新划分选区行动可能未达预期，众议院今年对共和党而言可能难以触及。共和党面临残酷的中期选举逆风。六股力量可能助其逆历史而行。
Combined with Democrats’ candidate quality improvements and a Republican-led redistricting effort that could fall short of expectations, the House is likely out of reach for the GOP this year. REPUBLICANS FACE BRUTAL MIDTERM HEADWINDS. SIX FORCES COULD HELP THEM DEFY HISTORY.
此外，还有一个相似点：在所有三次选举中，参议院一直悬而未决，直至最后一刻。
Then there’s a similarity: in all three elections, the Senate has been in play right up until the finish line.
在特朗普第一任期期间，尽管全国形势黯淡，共和党最终还是赢得了两个参议院席位。四年前，随着通胀飙升，民主党成功为其席位总数再添一席。
In Trump’s first term, the Republicans ended up gaining two Senate seats despite a gloomy national environment. Four years ago, with inflation surging, the Democrats managed to add a Senate seat to their tally.
12场竞争使参议院战场陷入混乱，民主党正瞄准反弹。民主党在选举夜有众多途径达到51席。共和党继续在六个摇摆州以及堪萨斯州投入大量资金，但这些努力并未产生显著影响。
12 RACES SCRAMBLE SENATE BATTLEFIELD AS DEMOCRATS EYE COMEBACK The Democrats have plentiful paths to 51 seats on election night. Republicans keep plowing money into six toss-up states, plus Kansas, and those efforts haven’t much moved the needle.
然而，共和党达到50席的路径正在变宽。此外，本周《权力排名》版本中对众议院预测进行了重大更新。
Yet the GOP’s paths to 50 are getting wider. That, plus a major update to the House forecast, in this week’s edition of the Power Rankings.
民主党全年一直在众议院中保持领先。如今，随着另外20场竞争向左倾斜，此次预测显示民主党将夺取控制权。
The Democratic Party has enjoyed a lead in the House all year. Now, as another 20 races shift leftward, this forecast sees the Democrats taking control.
蓝色浪潮看似真实，但仔细观察后会发现情况并非如此。民主党在至少219个席位上占优，而共和党应能守住至少198个席位。棋盘上还有18个摇摆席。
THE BLUE WAVE LOOKS REAL UNTIL YOU LOOK A LITTLE CLOSER Democrats have an advantage in at least 219 seats, while Republicans should hold on to at least 198 seats. There are 18 toss-ups on the board.
在民主党表现良好的夜晚，该党预计将保持约237个席位，较其目前位置增加22席。这是因为在之前的选举中，摇摆席大多向一方倾斜。福克斯新闻权力排名：对于民主党，可能出错的地方在哪里？
On a good night for the Democrats, the party will hold around 237 seats, or a gain of 22 from their current position. That’s because toss-up seats have mostly fallen in one party’s direction in previous elections. FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: FOR THE DEMOCRATS, WHERE COULD IT POSSIBLY GO WRONG?
如果摇摆席位朝另一方向倾斜，共和党可能会让左派的生活变得艰难。共和党的好夜晚将看到该党最终获得大约216个席位。这比多数席位少两个，但也让民主党在众议院中仅剩两票的缓冲。
If the toss-up seats go the other way, the GOP could make life hard for the left. A good night for Republicans would see the party end up with around 216 seats. That’s two short of a majority but also leaves the Democrats with a mere two-vote cushion in the House.
在这种情况下，像过去几年那样的“小队”般的左翼民主党人联盟可能会联合起来，对下一任众议院议长施加政策压力。由于像达里亚莉萨·阿维拉·切瓦利耶和克莱尔·瓦尔德兹这样的民主社会主义者的确定胜利，这个群体即将壮大。
In that scenario, a coalition of far-left Democrats, like the "Squad" of years past, could band together to put policy pressure on the next House speaker. That group is about to get bigger, thanks to the sure-thing victories of Democratic Socialists like Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez.
本周的一些变化是民意调查的产物。民主党在普选票上的领先优势已经将肯塔基州第6选区（列克星敦及其郊区）和德克萨斯州第15选区（里奥格兰德谷和海岸弯曲地区）推离了共和党。
Some of this week’s shifts are a product of polling. The Democrats’ generic ballot lead has pushed districts like Kentucky’s 6th District (Lexington and its suburbs) and Texas’ 15th District (Rio Grande Valley and Coastal Bend) away from the GOP.
该党在全州范围内的竞选实力也起到了作用，尤其是在爱荷华州（第1选区和第3选区，包含该州最大的城市），以及在宾夕法尼亚州（三个选区因州长乔什·夏皮罗的光环效应部分地向左倾斜）。
The party’s strength in statewide races also plays a role, especially in Iowa (the 1st and 3rd districts, which contain the state’s biggest cities), and in Pennsylvania (three districts have shifted to the left, thanks in part to Governor Josh Shapiro’s coattails).
其他变化是共和党团体将资源转移到其他地方的结果，比如从纽约州第19选区。四年前，民主党众议员乔什·赖利在此次选举中以不到5000票的差距落败，但随着共和党将资金投入到更有胜算的选举中，该选区正转向稳固的民主党地区。
Other shifts are the result of Republican groups moving resources elsewhere, like from New York’s 19th District. Democratic Rep. Josh Riley lost this race by fewer than 5,000 votes four years ago, but as the GOP sends its money to more winnable races, it’s moving to Solid D.
一个更令人惊讶的主题也正在浮现：共和党在农村选民中遇到了麻烦。
A more surprising theme is also emerging: the GOP is in trouble with rural voters.
位于奥尔巴尼上方的纽约州第21选区包含该州一些最农村的地区。两年前，该选区的选民让特朗普总统以21个百分点的优势击败了哈里斯副总统。上周的一项调查显示，民主党候选人以46%对42%领先共和党候选人4个百分点。
Sitting above Albany, New York’s 21st District contains some of the state’s most rural areas. Its voters delivered President Trump a 21-point victory over Vice President Harris two years ago. A survey last week had the Democratic candidate four points ahead of the Republican, 46%-42%.
民主党人看到了扭转共和党优势州局面的新机遇——不过共和党方面拥有4亿美元的竞选资金优势，这可能会破坏他们的计划。缅因州第二选区此前连续三次将选票投给特朗普，上次的得票差距更是高达9个百分点。由于现任众议员贾里德·戈尔登宣布退休，今年该选区成为无现任议员参选的“开放选区”。原本人们认为这是共和党最容易夺回的席位之一。然而最新民调显示，民主党候选人支持率为51%，共和党候选人则为45%。
DEMOCRATS SEE NEW CHANCES TO FLIP RED STATES — BUT A $400M GOP SPENDING ADVANTAGE COULD DERAIL THEIR PLANS Maine’s 2nd District, which famously voted for President Trump three times in a row – and last time by nine points – is an open race this year after Rep. Jared Golden’s retirement. It was thought to be one of the best flip opportunities for the GOP. A new poll has the Democrat at 51% and the Republican at 45%.
弗吉尼亚州第五选区横跨该州南部地区，当地三分之二的人口居住在农村。最新调查显示，该选区双方支持率仅相差6个百分点（共和党候选人45%，民主党候选人51%）。民主党候选人汤姆·佩里埃洛最近获得了众议员亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯的背书支持。
Even Virginia’s 5th District, stretching across the Southside region and home to a two-thirds rural population, is a six-point race in a recent survey (45%-51% with the Republican ahead). The Democrat, Tom Perriello, was recently endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
油价、柴油价格及食品价格上涨是主要诱因。虽然从绝对数值来看，城市和郊区的生活成本涨幅更为显著，但全美各地选民均表示感受到了物价上涨带来的压力，并指责共和党应对不力。
Gas, diesel and grocery prices are to blame. In dollar terms, the cost of living is higher in cities and suburbs, but voters across the country keep saying they are feeling the pressure of those increases and blame Republicans for them.
以艾奥瓦州为例，该州汽油价格上涨幅度位居全美第四。肯塔基州、俄亥俄州和德克萨斯州的柴油价格上涨幅度则均位列全美前五。这些因素令共和党候选人难以有效应对。
Iowa, for example, has experienced the fourth-highest gas price hike in the nation. Kentucky, Ohio and Texas are all in the top five states for diesel increases. That has proven tough for GOP candidates to counter.
纽约州第21选区从“绝对共和党优势区”转变为“很可能由共和党胜出区”。弗吉尼亚州第五选区与缅因州第二选区仍分别属于“共和党略占优势区”和“胜负难料区”。参议院席位争夺同样处于胶着状态：民主党和共和党各掌握47个席位，剩余6个胜负难料州的选举结果将决定最终控制权归属。
New York’s 21st District moves from Solid R to Likely R. (Virginia’s 5th and Maine’s 2nd districts remain at Lean R and Toss-up, respectively.) The Senate is still a toss-up with Democrats and Republicans taking 47 seats apiece. Six toss-ups are the most likely to determine control. If Democrats win all six of those states, the party will take the majority with two seats to spare, for a total of 53.
倘若民主党能赢下这6个州，就能以53个席位获得多数优势。不过根据预测，只要共和党保住这6个州，同样能维持现有席位数量。
On the other hand, this forecast still sees a pathway for the GOP not to lose any seats. They’d accomplish that just by holding on to the same six states.
夏季以来，这些胜负难料州的局势基本趋于稳定，但“共和党略占优势区”的格局变化较大：堪萨斯州加入该阵营，而乔治亚州和北卡罗来纳州则不再属于此类。总体而言，这些地区正是大选之夜的关键战场。本周，明尼苏达州也加入了这一行列。
The toss-ups have largely been locked in through summer. There’s been a lot more movement in the "lean" categories (Kansas in, Georgia and North Carolina out). Collectively, you can think of these as the election night battlegrounds. This week, a ninth state joins the list: Minnesota.
“北极星州”（North Star State）一直备受政治关注——尤其是自从共和党招募了前NFL赛事记者米歇尔·塔福亚（Michele Tafoya）之后。她凭借对欺诈行为、犯罪问题以及那些能够触动共和党选民情绪的文化议题的关注，成功地在政坛中站稳了脚跟。
The North Star State has been on the political radar since Republicans recruited Michele Tafoya, the former NFL sideline reporter. She has deftly navigated her foray into politics by focusing on fraud, crime, and the cultural issues that animate GOP voters.
她在竞选中面临着来自明尼苏达州现任副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根（Peggy Flanagan）的强劲竞争。目前尚不清楚，是弗拉纳根的进步主义政治立场，还是她与欺诈问题之间的关联，让选民们产生了犹豫。无论如何，确实存在选民持观望态度的迹象。
She also has a favorable matchup against Peggy Flanagan, Minnesota’s sitting lieutenant governor. It’s not clear whether Flanagan’s progressive politics or her proximity to the fraud issue is giving voters pause. Whatever the cause, there are signs that they are.
最新的一项民意调查显示：47%的潜在选民支持弗拉纳根，43%的人支持塔福亚，另有9%的选民尚未做出决定。
A new gold-standard survey shows 47% of likely voters support Flanagan, while 43% back Tafoya. Another 9% are undecided.
共和党人完全团结在塔福亚的背后；而10个民主党选民中有9个表示会支持弗拉纳根的竞选。独立选民的态度则更为复杂：38%的人支持塔福亚，32%的人支持弗拉纳根，29%的人尚未决定。
Republicans are fully united behind Tafoya, while 9-in-10 Democrats say they’ll support Flanagan’s bid. Independents are much less settled: 38% back Tafoya, 32% support Flanagan, and 29% haven’t decided.
明尼苏达州的选民构成及选举历史表明，这部分“独立选民”中其实包含一些倾向于中左翼的选民。他们可能会在选举前犹豫不决，但在投票日最终选择支持弗拉纳根。
Minnesota’s voter profile and election history suggest that there are some left-of-center voters in the "independent" column. They may be wavering on Flanagan now, then show up to vote for her on election day.
这位参议院候选人能与民主党州长候选人艾米·克洛布查尔（Amy Klobuchar）一同出现在选票上，这一优势也可能有助于她最终胜出。
The Senate hopeful’s spot on the ballot next to Amy Klobuchar, the Democrats’ gubernatorial candidate and electoral over-performer, may also help push her over the line.
无论如何，这项民意调查的结果不容忽视。明尼苏达州的选民倾向正在从“倾向于民主党”（Likely D）转向“略微倾向于民主党”（Lean D）。
Either way, that poll can’t be ignored. Minnesota moves from Likely D to Lean D.