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福克斯新闻预测:民主党将在中期选举中赢得众议院,为本周期首次Fox News predicts Democrats will win House in midterms for first time this cycle

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资料照片——2023年4月12日,一名行人走过纽约的福克斯新闻总部。(美联社照片/岩村由纪,资料照片)FILE - A person walks past the Fox News Headquarters in New York on April 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura, File)

福克斯新闻预测,民主党将在11月的中期选举中赢得众议院,这是该媒体在本轮选举周期中首次预测民主党赢得任一议院。福克斯新闻撰稿人雷米·努马在周一发布的最新权力排名中写道:“结合民主党候选人质量的提升以及共和党主导的重新划区行动可能低于预期,众议院今年对共和党而言可能遥不可及。”排名显示,民主党将赢得219个众议院席位以锁定多数,另有20场竞赛倾向民主党。

Fox News has predicted that Democrats will win the House in the November midterm elections, the outlet's first time predicting a Democratic win of either chamber during this election cycle. "Combined with Democrats’ candidate quality improvements and a Republican-led redistricting effort that could fall short of expectations, the House is likely out of reach for the GOP this year," Fox News contributor Rémy Numa wrote about his latest power rankings released Monday. The rankings showed Democrats winning 219 House seats to lock in a majority, with 20 races shifted toward Democrats.

共和党预计将保留198个席位,另有18场竞赛被视为摇摆不定。努马写道:“在民主党表现良好的夜晚,该党将保持约237个席位,相当于较目前位置增加22个。”他补充道:“这是因为摇摆席位在以往选举中大多倾向一方。”他后来补充说,民主党的“大好夜晚”将是赢得一些倾向共和党的席位,从而使其席位增至249个。但如果摇摆席位落入共和党之手,共和党可能最终获得216个席位,虽未达到多数,但将使民主党“在众议院中仅有两票的优势”。

Republicans are expected to keep 198 seats with 18 other races considered toss-ups. "On a good night for the Democrats, the party will hold around 237 seats, or a gain of 22 from their current position," Numa wrote. "That’s because toss-up seats have mostly fallen in one party’s direction in previous elections." He later added that a "great night" for Democrats would be to win some of the seats that lean Republican, giving them a boost with 249 seats. But if the toss-up seats go for Republicans, the GOP could end up with 216 seats, short of a majority but leaving the Democrats "with a mere two-vote cushion in the House."

努马表示,共和党的损失和民主党的潜在收益将源于汽油、柴油和杂货价格的上涨,他写道,选民“一直表示他们感受到这些涨价带来的压力,并将责任归咎于共和党。”排名显示,两党在参议院47个席位上的胜算相当,阿拉斯加、爱荷华、缅因、密歇根、俄亥俄和得克萨斯被列为摇摆州,任何一个州的结果都可能决定谁将控制上议院。

Numa said GOP losses and potential Democratic gains would be the result of rising gas, diesel and grocery prices, writing that voters "keep saying they are feeling the pressure of those increases and blame Republicans for them." The rankings show both parties are favored to win 47 seats in the Senate, with Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas named as toss-ups, any of which can determine who takes control of the upper chamber.

努马写道,赢得这些席位将使民主党“多占两席”获得多数,并补充说,预测仍显示共和党有获胜的途径。他指出,这些摇摆州的格局已在夏季锁定,但他补充说,一些倾向共和党的州可能形势紧张。

Winning those seats gives Democrats the majority "with two seats to spare," Numa wrote, adding that the forecast still sees a path to victory for the GOP. The toss-ups have been locked in through the summer, but he added that some states leaning Republican could be close.

努玛表示,共和党参议院候选人米歇尔·塔福亚在明尼苏达州取得了一定进展,但仍落后于民主党对手佩吉·弗拉纳根。他预测弗拉纳根以47比43领先塔福亚,该州的形势从可能民主党倾斜转为倾向民主党。他写道:“共和党人完全团结在塔福亚身后,而十分之九的民主党人表示他们将支持弗拉纳根的竞选。独立选民则尚未形成明确倾向:38%支持塔福亚,32%支持弗拉纳根,29%尚未决定。”

Numa said Republican Senate candidate Michele Tafoya has made gains in Minnesota, but is narrowly behind Democratic opponent Peggy Flanagan. He projects Flanagan ahead of Tafoya at 47-43, with the state shifting from likely Democrat to lean Democrat. "Republicans are fully united behind Tafoya, while 9 in 10 Democrats say they’ll support Flanagan’s bid. Independents are much less settled: 38 percent back Tafoya, 32 percent support Flanagan and 29 percent haven’t decided," he wrote.

距离中期选举还有几周的民调显示,尽管总统人气下滑,生活成本和能源价格上涨引发担忧,民主党仍在众议院选举中赢得多数。决策桌总部(DDHQ)在周三给出民主党赢得众议院的概率为77%,预计将获得235个席位,而共和党仅为200个。民主党在参议院的胜算要窄得多,DDHQ显示其赢得参议院的概率为56%。在这种情况下,共和党将保持49个席位。

Polling weeks away from the midterms have shown Democrats winning their majority in the House amid the president's sinking popularity and rising concerns over the cost of living and energy prices. Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) gives Democrats a 77 percent probability of winning the House as of Wednesday, likely holding 235 seats compared to Republicans' 200. Democrats face a much narrower path to victory in the Senate, with DDHQ showing a 56 percent probability of winning. Republicans would hold onto 49 seats in this scenario.