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阿拉斯加州参议院席位归属为何可能迟迟难定——且充满争议Why the Alaska Senate race could be so slow — and controversial — to decide

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Christian Moorman/Hans Lucas/AFP/Getty ImagesChristian Moorman/Hans Lucas/AFP/Getty Images

选举日过后,政治世界的目光可能会转向阿拉斯加州。本周,围绕第二个丹·沙利文(Dan Sullivan)是如何出现在该州参议院选票上的,阿拉斯加州已经处于一场激烈的政治争议的中心。这引发了诉讼、刑事调查,以及如果现任共和党参议员丹·沙利文被民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉(Mary Peltola)击败,就威胁要阻止选举认证的呼声。

After Election Day, all eyes in the political world could turn to Alaska. Alaska has already been at the center of a roiling political controversy this week over how the second Dan Sullivan ended up on the state’s Senate ballot, which has sparked lawsuits, criminal investigations and threats to block certification of the election if incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan is defeated by Democrat Mary Peltola. But the uproar about the Alaska Senate race could ratchet up to 11 if control of the Senate comes down to who wins in the state, one that election officials and experts say is unlike any other when it comes to voting.

但是,如果参议院的控制权取决于谁能赢得该州,围绕阿拉斯加参议院竞选的骚动可能会升级到极致。选举官员和专家表示,在投票方面,该州与其他任何地方都不同。这是因为可能需要两周时间才能确定胜者。

That’s because it might take two weeks before a winner can be determined. “Alaska does it different than everyone,” said Derek Tisler, counsel with the Brennan Center’s Elections and Government Program. “It’s such a unique state given its geography, given how remote it is and how expansive it is. So voters in all other 49 states are going to be a little confused about how things are done in Alaska when paying attention for the first time.”

布伦南司法中心(Brennan Center)选举与政府项目法律顾问德里克·蒂斯勒(Derek Tisler)表示:“阿拉斯加的做法与所有人都不一样。考虑到它的地理位置、偏远程度和广袤地域,这是一个非常独特的州。因此,当其他49个州的选民第一次关注阿拉斯加时,会对这里的运作方式感到有点困惑。”

There are several reasons why Alaska’s vote count could take longer than other states.

阿拉斯加州的计票时间可能比其他州更长的原因有几个。首先,该州给予邮寄选票10到15天的时间送回选举办公室(如果在美国国内寄出为10天,从海外寄出为15天)。其次,该州采用一种名为排序选择投票(ranked choice voting)的系统来计算选票,如果在第一轮投票中没有任何候选人获得50%的选票,这一过程将直到15天期限过后才会最终确定结果。

For one, the state gives between 10 to 15 days for mailed ballots to be returned to the elections office (10 days if mailed within the US and 15 days from overseas). Secondly, the state uses a system called ranked choice voting to count votes, a process where the results won’t be finalized until after that 15-day period if no candidate receives 50% of the vote on the first ballot. Should that occur, election officials and experts say it’s important for voters to remember that the process is supposed to take that long — especially because the waiting period can allow close elections to become a hotbed for misinformation over claims of cheating.

如果出现这种情况,选举官员和专家表示,选民务必记住,这个过程本该需要这么长时间——特别是由于等待期可能会让势均力敌的选举成为散布舞弊指控等虚假信息的温床。

“If it does take these two weeks to find out the actual composition [of the results], this isn’t a ballot manipulation — it’s not an attempt to alter the results of the election,” said Russell Luke, a political science professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

阿拉斯加大学费尔班克斯分校政治学教授拉塞尔·卢克说:“如果确实需要两周时间才能查明(结果的)实际组成部分,这不是选票操纵——也不是试图改变选举结果的企图。这只是阿拉斯加需要的时间。这是意料之中的事——它并不非同寻常,也没有超出常态。”

“It’s simply how long it takes in Alaska. This is to be expected — it’s not extraordinary or outside the norm.”

在《纽约时报》报道了有关民主党人参与将与现任议员同名的丹尼尔·J·沙利文列入阿拉斯加参议院选票的新细节之后,本周争议四起。阿拉斯加州共和党籍州长迈克·邓利维就民主党人是否试图混淆选民展开了调查,他在周四表示,如果调查发现“不当行为”,那么参议院竞选结果的认证可能会被“叫停或更改”。

Controversy swirled this week after The New York Times reported new details about Democratic involvement in getting Daniel J. Sullivan onto the Alaska Senate ballot, with the same name as the incumbent. Alaska GOP Gov. Mike Dunleavy launched an investigation into whether Democrats sought to confuse voters, and he said Thursday that if the probe finds “wrongdoing,” then certification of the Senate race results could be “stopped or changed.”

美国共和党参议员丹·沙利文和民主党参议院候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉在安克雷奇参加辩论,摄于美国阿拉斯加州安克雷奇,10月15日。Kerry Tasker/ReutersRepublican US Senator Dan Sullivan and Democratic US Senate candidate Mary Peltola participate in a debate in Anchorage, Alaska, US, October 15. Kerry Tasker/Reuters

已对该事件展开调查的邓利维对NewsNation表示:“我们要进行调查。我们如果发现存在不当行为,如果这意味着认证随后会被叫停或更改,那么就会那样做。”选举法专家表示,共和党人有一条通过法院对选举结果提出异议的途径,但州长对合法选举结果的认证并不是这样做的途径。

“We’re going to investigate,” Dunleavy, who launched a probe into the matter, told NewsNation. “We find out there’s wrongdoing and if that means that the certification then is stopped or changed, then that’s what happens.”

“如果有任何州政府权力机构——无论是计票委员会、州务卿还是州长——想要通过拖延或拒绝认证来干涉选民的权利,过去发生的事情将会再次上演:具备诉讼资格的各方将诉诸法庭,”前美国司法部律师、选举创新与研究中心创始人戴维·贝克尔表示,“他们将立即获得救济。”

Election law experts say there is a path for Republicans to contest the results of the election through the courts, but that the governor’s certification of legitimate election results is not the way to do so.

圣母大学选举法教授德里克·穆勒表示,阿拉斯加州法律中有一条法规,允许败选候选人在发生不当行为、欺诈或腐败以改变选举结果,或发生“法律所定义的、足以改变选举结果的任何腐败做法”时对选举提出质疑。穆勒说,这一标准对于在法庭上面对败选候选人的情况而言可能门槛很高,同时他也指出,这与州长试图不认证选举完全是两个不同的程序。

“If any state authority — whether it’s a canvassing board or secretary of state or governor — wants to interfere with the rights of the voters by delaying or denying certification, the same thing will happen what’s happened in the past: Parties with standing are going to go to the court,” said David Becker, a former DOJ attorney and founder of the Center for Election Innovation & Research. “They’re going to get immediate relief.”

穆勒说,如果州长拒绝认证,“法院可以下令让其他人来做”。特朗普政府也威胁称,如果沙利文落败,将阻止认证,并在一项甚至在本周事态发展之前就已提起的先发制人的诉讼中表达了这一点。

Derek Muller, an elections law professor at Notre Dame, said there’s a statute in Alaska law for a defeated candidate to contest an election in the event of misconduct, fraud or corruption to change the result of the election or “any corrupt practice as defined by law sufficient to change the results of the election.”That standard would likely be a high bar for a defeated candidate to meet with the courts, Muller said, while also noting that it was a different process entirely than the governor trying not to certify the election.

美国司法部倾向于《纽约时报》关于民主党参与招募丹尼尔·J·沙利文参选的报道,认为这会混淆选民,尽管该诉讼被认为胜算渺茫、很可能会失败。该州最高法院此前在初选前裁定,非现任的沙利文可以出现在选票上。

If the governor refuses certification, Muller said, “the court can order somebody else to do it.”The Trump administration has also threatened to block certification if Sullivan loses, with a preemptive lawsuit that was filed even before this week’s developments.

排成一排的红白蓝条纹帷幔投票间形成一条通道,几位选民在隔断处清晰可见,摄于美国阿拉斯加州安克雷奇的米德敦购物中心,10月29日。Christian Moorman/Hans Lucas/AFP/Getty ImagesRows of red, white and blue striped curtained voting booths form an aisle with several voters visible at the partitions at Midtown Mall in Anchorage, Alaska, United States, on October 29. Christian Moorman/Hans Lucas/AFP/Getty Images

该案的主审法官正在审理来自阿拉斯加州选举官员、民主党人以及外部团体关于驳回该诉讼的请求,裁决最早可能在本周末作出。

The Justice Department is leaning into the Times’ reporting about Democrats’ involvement in recruiting Daniel J. Sullivan to run, arguing it will confuse voters, though the lawsuit is seen as a longshot likely to fail.

外界还存在一种猜测,即如果佩尔托拉的胜利得到该州认证,且她在1月3日新一届国会开会时现身,一些参议院共和党人可能会试图阻止她宣誓就职。

The state Supreme Court previously ruled ahead of the primary that the non-incumbent Sullivan could be on the ballot.

这样戏剧性的举动此前从未发生过。总统唐纳德·特朗普一直公开抱怨阿拉斯加州的竞选,这可能会促使志同道合的参议员试图采取行动。但在目前,没有任何证据表明这可能会发生。

The judge in the case is considering requests from Alaska election officials, Democrats and outside groups to dismiss the lawsuit, and a ruling could come as soon as this weekend. There is also speculation about whether some Senate Republicans might try to prevent Peltola from being sworn in should her victory be certified by the state and she show up January 3 when the new session of Congress convenes. Such a dramatic move has never happened before.

参议院共和党助手拒绝谈论如果佩尔托拉赢得阿拉斯加州参议院选举,可能会出现针对其宣誓就职的反对意见或阻止努力的可能性,也拒绝说明是否存在可用于阻止她就职的程序机制。

President Donald Trump has been vocally complaining about the Alaska race, something that could spur like-minded senators to try to act.

参议院惯例规定,当一个州认证了一场选举后,当选参议员将该认证提交给参议院秘书进行审查。随后,此人将与其他赢得各自选举的议员一起宣誓就职,通常由副总统主持。

But there is no evidence at this point it might happen. Senate GOP aides refused to address the possibility that there might be an objection to or effort to block Peltola’s swearing in should she win the Alaska Senate race — or even say if there is a procedural mechanism they could use to block her.

如果有人对选举结果的准确性提出质疑,该事宜将被提交给规则与行政委员会进行调查。该委员会最终的调查结果和建议随后将呈交给参议院全院;如果他们发现选举中存在不当行为或计票不准确,参议院可以通过多数投票将此人除名。

Senate practices dictate that when a state certifies an election, the senator-elect provides that certification to the Secretary of the Senate for review. That person is then sworn in, typically by the vice president, with the other members who won their races.

上一次出现这个问题是在1996年,当时来自路易斯安那州的民主党人玛丽·兰德里厄参议员首次当选。尽管她的对手指控选民欺诈,她还是宣誓就职了。经过参议院漫长的调查,还了她的清白。

If a challenge is made to the accuracy of the election results, the matter is referred to the Committee on Rules and Administration for investigation. The committee’s eventual findings and recommendations would then go back to the full Senate, which could expel the individual on a majority vote should they find there was wrongdoing or an inaccurate count in the election. This was last an issue when Sen. Mary Landrieu, a Democrat from Louisiana, was first elected in 1996.

最近的一场颇具争议的竞选决定是在法庭上展开的:2008年,共和党参议员诺姆·科尔曼在明尼苏达州初次计票后领先215票。随后的重新计票使民主党人阿尔·弗兰肯领先312票。随后是长达数月的法律争端。直到2009年6月,明尼苏达州最高法院才宣布弗兰肯获胜。长期以来,阿拉斯加州一直是公布选举结果最慢的州之一。

She was sworn in even as her opponent alleged voter fraud. A lengthy Senate investigation cleared her. A more recent controversial race decision played out in the courts: In 2008, Sen. Norm Coleman, a Republican, had a 215-vote lead after the initial vote count in Minnesota. A recount gave a 312-vote lead to Democrat Al Franken. Months of legal wrangling followed.

这纯粹是地理问题:该州面积巨大,居民居住在偏远地区,由于这些社区不在该州的公路网内,选票必须通过飞机运送才能进行统计。

It wasn’t until June 2009 that the Minnesota Supreme Court declared Franken the winner.

“在阿拉斯加,选情胶着的选举等上好几个星期才出结果是很常见的,甚至在推行排序选择投票制之前就是如此,”温和派智库“第三条道路”的政治与研究副主任戴维·德拉富恩特表示。“阿拉斯加是全美少数几个有相当一部分人口无法靠私家车通勤的州之一。”正是这种偏远性,才让该州允许选票在选举日后10天和15天内寄到,只要它们的邮戳是选举日当天或之前即可。

Alaska has long been one of the slowest states for reporting election results. It’s a simple matter of geography: The state is massive, with residents in far-flung areas where ballots have to be flown in to be counted because communities aren’t on the state’s roadway network. “This was common in Alaska to wait weeks on end for results in close races, even before ranked choice voting,” said David de la Fuente, deputy director for politics and research at the moderate think tank Third Way.

美国最高法院今年审理了一起可能终结这种做法的案件,该案要求所有选票必须在选举日当天送达,但法院驳回了一项针对密西西比州接受选举日后送达选票做法的共和党挑战。

“Alaska is one of the few states in the country that a substantial part of their population does not get to their job via personal vehicle.”

阿拉斯加大学教授卢克表示,虽然阿拉斯加的计票工作一直很慢,但排序选择投票制“无疑加剧了这个问题”,因为该州要等到15天的期限过去后,才会运行排序选择投票的计票程序,而如果没有任何候选人获得百分之五十的选票,就需要进行这一程序。

That remoteness is why the state gives mail ballot deadlines of 10 and 15 days after the election, so long as they are postmarked by Election Day.

具体流程如下:根据选民在选票上对四位候选人的排序,第四名候选人的选票将被重新分配给前三名得票者。然后,第三名候选人的选票将被分配给前两名得票者,这将使某位候选人的得票率超过百分之五十的门槛。(选票上除了两位苏利文和佩尔托拉之外,还有另一名共和党人杰拉尔德·海克斯。)“在这场特定的参议员选举中,最有可能的结果就是——没有候选人在第一轮中明显获得多数票,”卢克说。同样的过程也可能在该州的州长和众议院竞选中上演。

The US Supreme Court took up a case this year that could have ended that practice, requiring all ballots to arrive by Election Day, but the court ruled against a Republican challenge to the practice of accepting ballots arriving after Election Day in Mississippi. Luke, the University of Alaska professor, said that while vote counting in Alaska has always been slow, ranked choice voting “certainly exacerbates the issue,” because the state waits for the 15-day deadline to run out before running the ranked choice voting tabulation, which is required if no candidate receives 50% of the votes. Here’s how the process works: The votes of the fourth-place finisher are distributed among the top three vote getters, based on how voters rank the four candidates on the ballot. Then the votes of the third-place finisher are distributed to the top two vote-getters, which will put a candidate above the 50% threshold. (There is one other Republican, Gerald Heikes, on the ballot along with the two Sullivans and Peltola.)“In this particular Senate race, that is the likeliest outcome — that neither candidate clearly receives a majority in the first round,” Luke said. The same process could also play out in the state’s gubernatorial and House contests.

这张2026年10月29日拍摄的照片显示了一张安克雷奇的选举样本选票,摄于美国阿拉斯加州安克雷奇。Eloise Brethes/AFP/Getty ImagesThis October 29, 2026, photo shows a sample election ballot in Anchorage, Alaska. Eloise Brethes/AFP/Getty Images

排序选择投票制一直受到共和党人的批评,其中包括总统,他曾质疑佩尔托拉如果获胜是否应该就职。

Ranked choice voting has been criticized by Republicans, including the president, who has questioned whether Peltola should be seated if she wins.

尽管一些专家辩称,排序选择投票实际上保护了现任议员沙利文——因为选民可以将两个沙利文都列入排序——但这场争议可能会助推废除阿拉斯加州排序选择投票制度的努力。

While some experts have argued that ranked choice voting actually protects the incumbent Sullivan — because voters can rank both Sullivans — the controversy could fuel efforts to end the use of ranked choice voting in Alaska.

在2024年的一场全民公投中,选民以微弱优势同意保留这一做法。但该议题在该州再次回到了选票上,这意味着阿拉斯加选民在沙利文与佩尔托拉的竞选中使用排序选择投票的同时,还将决定是否在未来的选举中保留这种方法。

In 2024, voters narrowly approved keeping the practice in a referendum. But it’s back on the ballot again in the state, meaning Alaska voters will be using ranked choice voting in the Sullivan-Peltola contest while deciding whether to keep the method for future elections.

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