中东与非洲 | 重回流血 丁加伊激战或预示更广范围地区冲突 | 4分钟阅读就在几年前，即2020年至2022年间，埃塞俄比亚最北部地区丁加伊爆发了一场内战。据估计，数十万人丧生。这场战争让埃塞俄比亚和厄立特里亚的军队对抗丁加伊人民解放阵线（TPLF），即丁加伊的执政党。“严重侵犯人权行为”促使美国于2021年对埃塞俄比亚实施武器禁运，并对厄立特里亚军队、高级官员和国有集团实施制裁。
Middle East & Africa | Back to bloodshed Heavy fighting in Tigray could herald a wider regional conflict |4 min read Just a few years ago, between 2020 and 2022, a civil war was fought in Tigray, Ethiopia’s northernmost region. Hundreds of thousands of people are thought to have been killed. The war pitted the armies of Ethiopia and Eritrea against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Tigray’s ruling party. “Serious human-rights abuses” prompted America to impose an arms embargo on Ethiopia in 2021, and to put sanctions on Eritrea’s army, senior officials and state-owned conglomerates.
幸运的是，危机终于结束了，至少美国官员是这样说的。9月18日，美国解除了对埃塞俄比亚的武器禁运，并未续期对厄立特里亚的制裁。“[埃塞俄比亚的]国家紧急状态已到期，”财政部宣布。
Thankfully, the crisis is at last over, at least according to American officials. On September 18th America removed the arms embargo on Ethiopia and did not renew the sanctions on Eritrea. “The national emergency [in Ethiopia] has expired,” the treasury department declared.
这个时间点耐人寻味。9月23日，效忠于TPLF的部队控制了丁加伊的三个机场，促使埃塞俄比亚联邦政府暂停飞往该地区的航班。TPLF指责埃塞俄比亚军队对南丁加伊发动攻击，并称其部队已“进入防御性战争”。一名埃塞俄比亚官员表示，TPLF实际上对邻近的阿姆哈拉和阿法尔地区的军队阵地发动了“全面进攻”。截稿时，南丁加伊以及阿姆哈拉和阿法尔两地似乎都在进行激战。
That was curious timing. On September 23rd forces loyal to the TPLF seized control of three airports in Tigray, prompting Ethiopia’s federal government to suspend flights to the region. The TPLF accused the Ethiopian army of launching an attack on southern Tigray and claimed its own forces had “entered a defensive war”. An Ethiopian official said the TPLF had in fact “launched an all-out offensive” against army positions in neighbouring Amhara and Afar. At the time of publication, heavy fighting appeared to be under way in both regions, as well as in southern Tigray.
提格雷人民解放阵线与埃塞俄比亚总理阿比·艾哈迈德之间的紧张关系一年多来不断加剧。提格雷人民解放阵线指责阿比对提格雷实施惩罚性围困，是其针对提格雷人民的“种族灭绝”行动的一部分。而阿比政府则表示，提格雷人民解放阵线是企图瓦解埃塞俄比亚的敌对势力的“特洛伊木马”——其中主要是厄立特里亚，阿比与厄立特里亚同样势不两立。近几周来，埃塞俄比亚军队对提格雷人民解放阵线发动了一场未公开宣布的无人机战争。而近日来，这场冲突似乎已经升级，接近于一场新的内战。
Tensions between the TPLF and Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister, have been growing for more than a year. The TPLF accuses Mr Abiy of putting Tigray under a punitive siege, part of a “genocidal” campaign against its people. Mr Abiy’s government, meanwhile, says the TPLF is a “Trojan horse” for hostile forces bent on dismantling Ethiopia—chief among them Eritrea, with which Mr Abiy is also at daggers drawn. In recent weeks the Ethiopian army has waged an undeclared drone war against the TPLF. And in recent days that appears to have escalated into something approaching a second civil war.
如果战斗持续下去，最新一轮冲突将与上一轮截然不同。当时，厄立特里亚军队与埃塞俄比亚军队并肩作战，共同对抗提格雷人民解放阵线。提格雷以南阿姆哈拉地区的一批民兵组织“法诺”也是如此。“法诺”和厄立特里亚80岁的独裁者伊萨亚斯·阿费沃基都对阿比2022年与提格雷人民解放阵线和解的决定感到被背叛。“法诺”于次年对联邦政府发动了叛乱。而伊萨亚斯则似乎对阿比一再威胁要吞并厄立特里亚部分海岸线的言论日益感到担忧。
If fighting continues, the latest round will be dramatically different from the previous one. Back then, Eritrean troops fought alongside the Ethiopian army against the TPLF. So did a set of militias from the Amhara region, to the south of Tigray, known as the Fano. Both the Fano and Isaias Afwerki, Eritrea’s 80-year-old dictator, felt betrayed by Mr Abiy’s decision to make peace with the TPLF in 2022. The Fano launched a rebellion against the federal government the following year. Mr Isaias, for his part, appears increasingly concerned about Mr Abiy’s repeated threats to annex part of Eritrea’s coastline.
9月20日，提格雷人民解放阵线与“法诺”以及其他五个埃塞俄比亚反叛组织发表联合声明，宣布他们已结成联盟，目标是推翻阿比政权。厄立特里亚官员否认参与该联盟。但伊萨亚斯与“法诺”有着长期联系，据了解曾向提格雷人民解放阵线和其他组织提供武器和后勤支持。
On September 20th the TPLF and the Fano issued a joint statement with five other Ethiopian rebel groups, announcing that they had formed an alliance with the aim of toppling Mr Abiy’s regime. Eritrean officials deny any involvement in the coalition. But Mr Isaias has longstanding ties to the Fano and is understood to have provided the TPLF and other groups with weapons and logistical support.
局势降级的可能性微乎其微。一名前埃塞俄比亚情报官员认为：“战争已经开始了。”提格雷人民解放阵线（TPLF）和法诺武装似乎正试图包围韦尔迪亚——这是阿姆哈拉北部的一座城镇，位于连接提格雷与亚的斯亚贝巴的主干道上。如果韦尔迪亚陷落，那可能是叛军向埃塞俄比亚首都发动攻势的前奏。叛军还侵入了阿法尔地区，他们可能会在那里试图扰乱甚至阻断通往吉布提港的道路运输，埃塞俄比亚几乎全部国际贸易（包括燃料进口）都依赖这条通道。
The prospects for de-escalation are slim. “The war has already started,” reckons a former Ethiopian intelligence officer. The TPLF and the Fano appear to be trying to encircle Weldiya, a town in northern Amhara along the main road linking Tigray with Addis Ababa. If Weldiya were to fall, that could be a prelude to a rebel offensive on the Ethiopian capital. The rebels have also made incursions into Afar, where they may try to disrupt or even stop transport along the road to the port of Djibouti, on which Ethiopia depends for nearly all of its international trade, including fuel imports.
阿比先生有两大优势。第一，这些叛军组织各自实力相当薄弱，且在整体上因族群对立和历史积怨而四分五裂。这可能削弱他们协调行动的能力。阿比先生的另一个优势是空中力量。上一次提格雷人民解放阵线在2021年抢先逼近亚的斯亚贝巴时，埃塞俄比亚军队用无人机将其击退。如今阿比先生拥有规模更大、更先进的武器库。
Mr Abiy has two big advantages. The first is that the rebel groups are individually quite weak and collectively riven by ethnic rivalries and historical grievances. That may hamper their ability to co-ordinate. Mr Abiy’s other advantage is air power. The last time the TPLF stole a march on Addis Ababa, in 2021, the Ethiopian army beat it back with drones. Today Mr Abiy has an even larger and more sophisticated arsenal.
今年5月，总理的一名顾问曾呼吁通过定点无人机打击暗杀提格雷人民解放阵线的领导人。一位人脉广泛的观察人士说：“提格雷人民解放阵线的领导层可能撑不过这个星期。”
In May one of the prime minister’s advisers called for the TPLF’s leaders to be assassinated by targeted drone strikes. “The TPLF leadership may not last the week,” says a well-connected observer.
然而，阿比还面临其他敌人。如果埃塞俄比亚的反叛势力挫败，伊萨亚斯可能担心自己下一个被吞并，从而下令部队加入战斗。厄立特里亚也是邻国苏丹武装部队（SAF）的关键盟友，该国正陷入自身灾难性的内战。而SAF反过来对埃塞俄比亚支持其敌人——快速支援部队——感到愤怒。这意味着埃塞俄比亚的战争可能演变成地区性的大屠杀。“这场战争不会局限于提格雷，”一位TPLF官员预测，“它将涉及厄立特里亚，也将涉及苏丹。”
Yet Mr Abiy has other enemies to contend with. If Ethiopia’s rebels falter, Mr Isaias may worry that he is next on the menu and order his troops to join the fight. Eritrea is also a crucial ally of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the national army of neighbouring Sudan, which is mired in its own disastrous civil war. The SAF, in turn, is angry with Ethiopia for backing its enemy, the Rapid Support Forces. That means the war in Ethiopia could spiral into regional carnage. “It’s not going to be confined to Tigray,” predicts a TPLF official. “It’s going to involve Eritrea and it’s going to involve Sudan.”From the September 26th 2026 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒Explore the edition What a beer with no label says about a small African country The ale that ails São Tomé and Príncipe Why so many Nigerian states want their own airline Economic considerations are not to the fore How realistic is Africa’s dream of a gas-powered future?
来自2026年9月26日版本 发现本栏目及更多内容，请查看目录 ⇒探索本期 无标签啤酒折射非洲小国一斑 困扰圣多美和普林西比的啤酒 为何众多尼日利亚州想拥有自己的航空公司 经济考量并非首要 非洲天然气动力未来的梦想有多现实？政治风险、结构性弱点和融资不足阻碍该燃料的潜力
Political risk, structural weaknesses and a lack of financing hamper the fuel’s potential