
随着 CNBC 投资俱乐部投资组合目前仅剩 31 个持仓,我们正在寻找新思路以加入我们的“备选股”观察名单。一个新思路是 SpaceX,该公司由埃隆·马斯克于 2002 年创立。这家科技巨头于 6 月上市。发行价为每股 135 美元,开盘交易价为 150 美元。此后几个月股价波动较大,上市仅数日后盘中一度触及近 226 美元的高点,随后于 8 月初跌至 105 美元左右的低点。
With the CNBC Investing Club portfolio now down to 31 positions, we are working on new ideas to add to our Bullpen list of stocks to watch. One new idea we have is SpaceX , which Elon Musk founded in 2002. The tech giant went public in June. The offering was priced at $135 per share and opened for trading at $150. Shares have been volatile over the ensuing months, hitting an intraday peak of nearly $226 just days after going public before bottoming around $105 in early August.
从那时起,股价已反弹至 140 美元区间。我们可以花一整天时间撰写关于 SpaceX 的内容,因为它有太多层面,包括在不太遥远的未来与马斯克旗下的特斯拉进行潜在合并。但目前,让我们专注于其业务的核心细节。SPCX mountain 2026-06-11 SpaceX 自 6 月中旬 IPO 以来的股价表现 SpaceX 拥有三大不同业务板块:Space(火箭与卫星)、Connectivity(星链)以及 SI(超级智能),SI 此前称为 AI。
Since then, the stock has rebounded to the $140s. We could spend all day writing about SpaceX because it has so many layers, including a potential merger with Musk's Tesla in the not-too-distant future. But for now, let's focus on the nuts and bolts of its businesses. SPCX mountain 2026-06-11 SpaceX stock performance since mid-June IPO Space has three distinct segments: Space (rockets and satellites), Connectivity (Starlink), and SI (Super Intelligence), which was previously called AI.
根据其于 5 月底提交的 S-1 首次公开募股招股说明书,SpaceX 估计其所处的总可寻址市场 (TAM) 高达 28.5 万亿美元,其中 Space 业务 TAM 为 3700 亿美元,Connectivity 业务 TAM 为 1.6 万亿美元,SI 业务 TAM 为 26.5 万亿美元。我们不打算探讨这些估算有多现实,但至少它们展示了公司眼前巨大的机遇。
According to its S-1 initial public offering filing in late May, SpaceX estimates that it operates in a whopping $28.5 trillion total addressable market (TAM), which is broken out as $370 billion TAM for its Space business, $1.6 trillion TAM for Connectivity, and $26.5 trillion TAM for its SI business. We're not going to debate how realistic those estimates are, but at the very least, they illustrate the enormous opportunities the company sees ahead.
在 SI 业务方面,SpaceX 致力于成为一家主要的人工智能超大规模基础设施提供商。公司正大力投资在孟菲斯建设其 AI 基础设施,包括其“科洛萨斯”和“科洛萨斯二号”超级计算机。SpaceX 可以通过几种方式将其 AI 基础设施变现。一种是内部使用其算力训练 Grok 模型并支持其他 AI 工作。另一种是将算力租赁给像 Anthropic 这样算力需求旺盛的第三方以获利。
In its SI business, SpaceX is on a mission to become a major artificial intelligence hyperscaler. The company is aggressively investing to build out its AI infrastructure in Memphis, including its Colossus and Colossus II supercomputers. SpaceX can monetize its AI infrastructure in a couple of ways. One is to use its computing power internally to train its Grok model and support other AI efforts. Or it can make money by leasing capacity to compute-hungry third parties like Anthropic.
本周早些时候,Anthropic 的 S-1 文件披露,该公司已同意在未来几年内向 SpaceX 支付高达 1205 亿美元用于算力采购。在 SpaceX 最近的财报电话会上,马斯克表示,他预计公司将在 2026 年底前新增 2.5 至 3 吉瓦(GW)的算力上线,并有信心在 2027 年再增加 10 吉瓦的算力。
Earlier this week, Anthropic's S-1 revealed that it has agreed to spend up to $120.5 billion over the coming years on SpaceX compute. On SpaceX's most recent earnings call, Musk said he expects the company will bring an incremental 2.5 to 3 gigawatts (GW) of compute online by the end of 2026, with confidence to add another 10 GW of compute online in 2027.
SI 是 SpaceX 增长最快的业务,第三季度收入激增至 75.6 亿美元,而第二季度为 25.6 亿美元,去年同期仅为 8.13 亿美元。连接业务完全围绕星链,后者利用在低地球轨道运行的卫星,为消费者、企业和政府提供高速宽带互联网服务。星链相较于卫星同行拥有明显的竞争优势,因为它可以利用 SpaceX 自身的火箭将卫星送入轨道,有助于降低成本并加速网络扩张。这目前是 SpaceX 最赚钱的业务,第三季度实现 23.7 亿美元的运营利润。
SI is by far SpaceX's fastest-growing business, with third-quarter revenue surging to $7.56 billion from $2.56 billion in the second quarter and just $813 million in the year-ago period. Connectivity is all about Starlink, which uses satellites that operate in low Earth orbit to provide high-speed broadband internet service for consumers, enterprises, and governments. Starlink has a clear competitive advantage over its satellite peers because it can leverage SpaceX's own rockets to launch satellites into orbit, helping reduce costs and accelerate network expansion. This is currently the most profitable of SpaceX, with $2.37 billion operating profit in the third quarter.
星链于 2019 年发射首批卫星 —— 从那时起,该服务迅速普及,并已成为 Verizon、AT&T 和 Comcast 等宽带提供商的竞争对手,特别是在农村和服务欠缺市场。星链还旨在成为美国主要的移动运营商。公司在第三季度新增 160 万消费端用户,使其全球用户规模达到略低于 1400 万。该数字不包括额外数十万企业用户和航空客户,这也是业务中另一个令人振奋的部分。
Starlink launched its first satellites in 2019 — and since then, the service has rapidly grown in popularity and emerged as a competitor to broadband providers such as Verizon , AT & T , and Comcast , particularly in rural and underserved markets. Starlink also aims to become a major mobile carrier in the United States. The company added 1.6 million consumer subscribers in the third quarter, bringing its global reach to just under 14 million. That figure doesn't include an additional hundreds of thousands of enterprise subscribers and aviation customers, which is another exciting part of the business.
星链已与美国四大无线运营商中的三家以及多家领先的国际航空公司建立合作伙伴关系,为乘客提供连接服务。越来越多的航空公司选择与星链合作,因为它们知道高速互联网接入是乘客所期望的。
Starlink has partnered with three of the four major U.S. wireless carriers and several leading international airlines to provide connectivity to passengers. More and more, we are seeing airlines partner with Starlink because they know access to high-speed internet is what their customers want.
正如联合航空首席执行官斯科特·柯比(Scott Kirby)在最近的财报电话会议上所说,Starlink 已成为客户选择乘坐哪家航空公司的一个激励因素。在太空领域,该公司是全球头号发射服务提供商。SpaceX 为这项业务勾画了两个不同的增长机会。一是增加发射有效载荷能力,另一是“建立月球经济,包括月球上的货物运输、制造和能源生产”。星舰(Starship)飞船通过商业发射和政府合同产生销售额。随着 SpaceX 攻克让星舰完全可复用的复杂工程挑战,其发射频率可能会大幅提高。
Take it from United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby, who said on its recent earnings call that Starlink has become a motivating factor for customers to choose which airline to fly. In Space , the company is the number one launch provider in the world. SpaceX outlines two different growth opportunities for this business. One is increasing launch payload capacity, while the other is to "establish the lunar economy, including cargo transport, manufacturing, and energy production on the moon." The Starship spacecraft generates sales through commercial launches and government contracts. As SpaceX works through the complex engineering challenges of making Starship completely reusable, it could dramatically increase the frequency of its launches.
从估值角度来看,SpaceX 根据前向盈利预估并不像你想象的那么昂贵。在交出一个调整后每股盈利 35 美分的第三季度后——远超分析师约 13 美分的预期——SpaceX 现在预计 2026 暦年每股盈利将达 32 美分(公司在第一、二季度亏损)。这使得基于 2026 年数字的市盈率达到 451 倍。这离“便宜”还很远。然而,公司当前的盈利能力超出大多数人预期,加上那些利润丰厚的算力交易,迫使分析师大幅上调盈利预估。
From a valuation perspective, SpaceX is not as expensive on forward earnings estimates as you may think. After turning in a third quarter in which the company made 35 cents per share on an adjusted basis, well above analyst forecasts of about 13 cents, SpaceX is now expected to make 32 cents per share for calendar year 2026 (the company lost money in Q1 and Q2). This puts the price-to-earnings multiple on 2026 numbers at 451. That is far from cheap. However, the combination of the company being more profitable today than what most people thought, coupled with those lucrative compute deals, has forced analysts to significantly raise their earnings estimate.
据 FactSet 数据,9 月时分析师预估 SpaceX 2027 年调整后每股盈利为 1.59 美元。但在那个季度之后,分析师现在预计公司明年每股盈利将达 3.71 美元。这意味着股票目前按 2027 年数字的 38.5 倍市盈率交易,在我们看来要合理得多,值得我们关注。当然,SpaceX 比我们通常在投资组合中持有的股票更具投机性一些。
In September, analysts estimated SpaceX would earn $1.59 on an adjusted basis in 2027, according to FactSet. But after that last quarter, analysts now expect the company will make $3.71 next year. This means the stock is currently trading at a P/E multiple of 38.5 times 2027 numbers, which is a lot more palatable in our eyes and commands our attention. Sure, SpaceX is a bit more speculative than we might typically own in the portfolio.
尽管这些未来预测的某些部分需要一定的信心飞跃——即随着更多GW上线,SI收入预计将从2026年的约267亿美元增至明年的1320亿美元——但如果公司能兑现这些预期,该股票的估值看起来颇具吸引力。此外,押注马斯克失败向来是愚蠢的举动。
And while some parts of those future estimates require a leap of faith — namely SI revenue growing from an estimated $26.7 billion in 2026 to $132 billion next year as more GW comes online — the stock looks attractively valued if the company can deliver on those expectations. Plus, betting against Musk has been a fool's errand. ()