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Anthropic 或将其 IPO 最多 20% 的股份提供给散户Anthropic may offer up to 20% of its IPO to retail, Bloomberg says

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达里奥·阿莫代伊出席2025年1月达沃斯世界经济论坛年会。图片来源:世界经济论坛 / 桑德拉·布拉泽 / CC BY-NC-SA 2.0,经由Flickr(已裁剪)Dario Amodei at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, January 2025 Credit: World Economic Forum / Sandra Blaser / CC BY-NC-SA 2.0 via Flickr (cropped)

据知情人士透露,Anthropic 正在考虑在其首次公开募股(IPO)中预留 15% 至 20% 的股份供散户投资者认购,彭博社于 10 月 28 日周三报道。知情人士称,摩根大通将牵头负责美国散户发售部分。TNW 尚未独立核实该报道。

Anthropic is weighing setting aside 15% to 20% of the shares in its IPO for retail investors, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg on Wednesday, 28 October. JPMorgan will lead the US retail offering, they said. TNW has not independently verified the report.

招股说明书(S-1)仅称承销银行可能为其在线券商客户预留股份。据《商业内幕》记者 Samuel O’Brient 报道,SpaceX 在 6 月上市时为散户投资者预留了约 20% 的股份,此前曾计划预留 30%。

The S-1 prospectus only says the banks may set aside shares for their online brokerage customers. SpaceX set aside about 20% for retail investors at its June listing, after first planning 30%, as Samuel O’Brient reported for Business Insider.

PitchBook 高级研究分析师 Harrison Rolfes 对《商业内幕》表示:“个人资金对价格不那么敏感,依赖这部分资金的订单簿能让承销银行将发行价定得比仅靠机构投资者所能支持的价格更高。”

“Individual money is less sensitive to price, and a book that leans on it lets the banks price the deal higher than institutions alone would support,” Harrison Rolfes, a senior research analyst at PitchBook, told Business Insider.

沃伦要求 11 月 3 日前作答 参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦已致函 Anthropic,要求其就 IPO 申报文件回答四页问题,截止日期为 11 月 3 日。《华尔街日报》记者 Corrie Driebusch 报道了这封信,该报看到了信件副本。这位马萨诸塞州民主党参议员于周二将信件发给了首席执行官 Dario Amodei。

Warren wants answers by 3 November Senator Elizabeth Warren has told Anthropic to answer four pages of questions about its IPO filing by 3 November. Corrie Driebusch reported the letter for The Wall Street Journal, which saw a copy. The Massachusetts Democrat sent it to chief executive Dario Amodei on Tuesday.

她询问 Anthropic 如何确保其技术不会成为对人类的生存威胁。她还询问了其与亚马逊和博通的关系,以及如何证明其估值可能接近 2 万亿美元的合理性。Anthropic 未立即回应《华尔街日报》。

She asked how Anthropic can ensure its technology will not become an existential threat to humanity. She also asked about its ties to Amazon and Broadcom, and how it will justify a valuation that could approach $2tn. Anthropic did not immediately respond to the Journal.

沃伦在信中写道,根据《华尔街日报》报道,“这些风险要求在它们与公共资本市场交织在一起之前接受更严格的审查。”

The risks “demand greater scrutiny before they become intertwined with the public capital markets,” Warren wrote, according to the Journal.

申报文件中的风险 申报文件提到,Anthropic 内部和外部都有人担忧先进 AI 将导向何方。这与 Anthropic 可能成为政治攻击目标的警示并列。

The risks in the filing The filing notes concerns, inside Anthropic and outside it, about where advanced AI could lead. It sits alongside the warning that Anthropic could become a political target.

申报文件称:“如果缺乏适当的保障措施、监督和安全措施,足够先进的 AI 系统可能对人类构成灾难性或生存性风险。”

Sufficiently advanced AI systems “could, if not developed, deployed, and operated with appropriate safeguards, oversight, and security measures, pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity,” the filing says.

文件指出,美国拟议的法律设想将前沿 AI 系统国有化或强制关闭。文件补充称,Anthropic 自身主张的规则可能会拖慢其增长。政府合同约占其营收的 1%。

It notes that proposed US laws contemplate the nationalisation or mandatory shutdown of frontier AI systems. The rules Anthropic itself argues for could slow its growth, it adds. Government contracts make up about 1% of its revenue.

同一文件也勾勒了奖赏的规模。Anthropic 称,2025 年全球知识型工作价值超过 40 万亿美元,高于《华尔街日报》所提到的 SpaceX 28.5 万亿美元的市场估值。

The same document sizes the prize. Anthropic says knowledge work was worth more than $40tn globally in 2025, which tops SpaceX’s $28.5tn market estimate, as the Journal noted.

更多算力交易 TNW 已报道了 Google、Amazon、Microsoft 和 Broadcom 的交易。Anthropic 还同意与 SpaceXAI(SpaceX 旗下原名为 xAI 的部门)达成高达 1205 亿美元的支出协议。自 12 月起,这相当于每月约 31 亿美元。2027 年初之后,任何一方均可提前 90 天通知取消。

More compute deals TNW has reported the Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Broadcom deals. Anthropic also agreed to spend up to $120.5bn with SpaceXAI, the SpaceX unit formerly known as xAI. That reaches about $3.1bn a month from December. After early 2027, either side can cancel on 90 days’ notice.

Anthropic 还同意与 Nscale 达成高达 446 亿美元、与 Lambda 达成约 413 亿美元的支出协议。除承诺表所列项目外,Anthropic 预计 2028 年至 2031 年将为更多 TPU 芯片产能支付 1250 亿至 1500 亿美元。自 6 月 30 日以来,Anthropic 已签署最低付款额约 2450 亿美元的交易。总额仍为空白。《华尔街日报》曾报道,Anthropic 在算力上可能花费 7500 亿美元。

It also agreed to spend up to $44.6bn with Nscale and about $41.3bn with Lambda. It expects to pay $125bn to $150bn for more TPU chip capacity from 2028 to 2031, outside its commitments table. Since 30 June, it has signed deals with about $245bn in minimum payments. The total is still blank. The Journal had reported that Anthropic could spend $750bn on compute.

利润率与买单方 收入成本(主要是服务客户的算力)在上半年为 23.8 亿美元,营收为 163 亿美元。毛利率约为 85%,Semafor 称这是 Anthropic 的关键数字,引用自 The Information。该数字不包含训练成本。总算力支出为 89.5 亿美元。

Margins and who pays Cost of revenue, mostly compute that serves customers, was $2.38bn in the first half, against $16.3bn of revenue. That is a gross margin of about 85%, the figure Semafor called Anthropic’s key number, citing The Information. It leaves out training. Total compute spending was $8.95bn.

“我们不指望营收将继续以可比速度增长,也无法向您保证营收将继续增长,”文件称。

“We do not expect our revenue will continue to grow at comparable rates, and we cannot assure you that it will continue to grow at all,” the filing says.

随着新算力在其支撑的营收到来之前投入使用,利润率也可能收窄。截至 9 月 30 日前六个月发布的模型占第三季度营收的 80% 以上。

Margins may also shrink as new compute arrives before the revenue it supports. Models released in the six months to 30 September made up over 80% of third-quarter revenue.

通过亚马逊、谷歌和微软云市场的销售额占上半年收入的48%,高于2023年的11%。谷歌拥有以首次公开募股(IPO)价格购买高达100亿美元股票的期权。Equibles Research发现,Anthropic将亚马逊持有的可转换票据估值为1086亿美元;亚马逊将其估值为979亿美元。

Sales through Amazon, Google and Microsoft’s cloud marketplaces were 48% of first-half revenue, up from 11% in 2023. Google has an option to buy up to $10bn of stock at the IPO price. Anthropic values the convertible notes Amazon holds at $108.6bn; Amazon puts them at $97.9bn, Equibles Research found.

关于内部人士何时可出售股份 部分股份可从首个交易日开始出售。联合创始人和持股超过0.5%的股东必须等到2027年第三季度财报发布后,或365天后。大多数其他人可在2027年第一季度财报发布后,或180天后自由出售。

When insiders can sell Some shares can be sold from the first trading day. Co-founders and holders of more than 0.5% must wait until after third-quarter 2027 results, or 365 days. Most others are free after first-quarter 2027 results, or 180 days.

在其通讯中,批评人士Ed Zitron写道,招股说明书(S-1)所描述的公司“已不复存在”。他指出了空白的第三季度数据。MBI Deep Dives称Anthropic“是一家好得多、好得多的企业”,超出了其预期,但表示暂不买入。

In his newsletter, critic Ed Zitron wrote that the company the S-1 describes “no longer exists”. He pointed to the blank third-quarter figures. MBI Deep Dives called Anthropic “a much, much better business” than it had expected, but said it would not yet buy.

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