微软股价周三盘后小幅上涨，此前这家科技巨头公布的各项关键指标均好于预期，并发出信号称其至关重要的 Azure 云计算业务增长持续加速。截至 9 月底的三个月营收同比增长约 19% 至 922.8 亿美元，高于 LSEG 统计的 906.9 亿美元共识预期。根据 LSEG 数据，经调整每股收益 (EPS) 为 4.92 美元，同比增长 32%，高于 4.73 美元的共识预期。
Shares of Microsoft edged higher Wednesday evening after the tech giant reported better-than-expected results across all key metrics and signaled that growth in its all-important Azure cloud computing business continues to accelerate. Revenue in the three months ended in September rose about 19% year over year to $92.28 billion, beating the LSEG consensus estimate of $90.69 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) totaled $4.92, up 32% from a year earlier, beating the $4.73 consensus, according to LSEG.
按报告汇率和固定汇率计算，Azure 云收入同比增长 48%，分别高于 FactSet 统计的约 44% 和 45% 的共识预期。MSFT 1Y mountain 微软 1 年股价表现核心观点今年早些时候，微软股价曾下跌约 25%，在 300 美元中段徘徊，市场担忧其在 AI 竞赛中落后、基于席位的订阅模式易受冲击，且公司 AI 工具缺乏创新。
Azure cloud revenue grew 48% year over year on a reported and constant-currency basis, beating FactSet consensus estimates of about 44% and 45%, respectively. MSFT 1Y mountain Microsoft 1-year stock performance Bottom line Earlier this year, Microsoft shares were down about 25%, trading in the mid-$300s on concerns that it had fallen behind in the AI race, that its seat-based subscription model was vulnerable to disruption, and that the company lacked innovation in its AI tools.
但这一切在 7 月发生了转变：Azure 收入增长加速；Copilot 付费席位势头增强；或许最重要的是，公司量入为出，没有像其他主要超大规模云服务商那样烧光所有现金流来支撑 AI 业务。从 6 月底的夏季低点到周三收盘，股价累计上涨约 51%。在又一份漂亮的财报出炉后，这种反弹势头很可能延续。微软股价盘后再涨 3%，股价进入历史新高区间。
But that all changed in July: Azure revenue growth accelerated; momentum in Copilot paid seats grew; and, perhaps most importantly, the company separated itself from the other major hyperscalers by spending within its means and not burning through all its cash flow to support its AI efforts. The stock gained roughly 51% from its summer low in late June through Wednesday's close. That rebound is likely to continue after another clean earnings report. Microsoft shares are up another 3% in after-hours trading, putting the stock in record-high territory.
我们将拭目以待周四的交易表现——在 Alphabet、ServiceNow 和 Fortinet 业绩不及预期后，科技板块可能面临艰难的一天——但任何回调都与其出色的本季度表现无关。
We'll see how it trades Thursday in what may be a tough day for tech following misses from Alphabet, ServiceNow , and Fortinet , but any dip will have nothing to do with its excellent quarter.
首先，Azure 收入增长加速至同比 48%，超出分析师预期和管理层约 45% 的指引。更具体地说，本季度 Azure 收入达 331.7 亿美元，高于去年同期的 223.8 亿美元。
To start, Azure revenue growth accelerated to 48% year over year, exceeding analyst expectations and management's guidance of about 45%. More precisely, Azure revenue totaled $33.17 billion in the quarter, up from $22.38 billion last year.
微软披露季度 Azure 云业务收入属于新举措，此前该公司于 9 月宣布了报告架构调整。
Microsoft's disclosure of quarterly Azure cloud revenue is new, following changes to its reporting structure announced in September.
我们持有该股票的理由 微软凭借 Office 365 套件和混合云平台 Azure，已成为全球生产力的核心支柱。得益于对 ChatGPT 背后初创公司 OpenAI 的巨额投资，微软也正证明自己是关键的 AI 工具提供商。我们还看好其在视频游戏行业的布局，因为公司正寻求拓展经常性收入来源。
Why we own it Microsoft is a core backbone of global productivity thanks to its Office 365 suite and hybrid cloud platform Azure. The company is also proving itself to be a key provider of AI tools, in part due to its large investment in OpenAI, the startup behind ChatGPT. We also like what it's doing in the video gaming industry as it looks to grow recurring revenue streams.
竞争对手：亚马逊、Alphabet 和 Salesforce投资组合权重：2.9%最近一次买入：2024 年 8 月 5 日建仓日期：2017 年 12 月 4 日以往几个季度，微软受制于产能瓶颈，导致 Azure 收入未能充分释放。同样，由于公司将产能分配给 Copilot 和内部研发等其他机会，Azure 收入也受到限制。但微软高度重视加快产能上线，以满足加速增长的需求。
Competitors : Amazon , Alphabet and Salesforce Weight in portfolio : 2.9% Most recent buy : Aug. 5, 2024 Initiated : Dec. 4, 2017 Past Microsoft quarters were held back by capacity constraints, leaving Azure revenue on the table. Similarly, Azure revenues were limited by the company allocating capacity to other opportunities, such as Copilot and internal R & D. But there has been a major emphasis on bringing capacity online faster to meet accelerating demand.
本季度，微软在五大洲新增了 24 个数据中心。值得注意的是，尽管遭遇第三方产能延迟，Azure 收入仍超出预期。这些第三方延迟是我们未来几周和几个月必须监控的因素，因为它们可能导致 AI 支出进一步推迟。尽管如此，得益于 GPU 效率提升，微软产生的收入超出预期，这使其能够在增加每 Token 收入的同时，向客户分配更多产能。
Microsoft added 24 new data centers across five continents in the quarter. Notably, Azure revenue exceeded expectations despite Microsoft experiencing third-party capacity delays. These third-party delays are something we must monitor in the weeks and months ahead, as they could lead to more push-outs in AI spending. Still, Microsoft generated more revenue than expected due to gains in GPU efficiency, which allowed it to allocate additional capacity to customers while increasing revenue per token.
这一进展尤为引人注目，因为它表明每一美元资本支出可支持更多收入创造，并可能带来更高的投资回报。我们曾对 Copilot 持怀疑态度，但显然这款 AI 工具正在企业市场获得认可。
This is a particularly notable development because it suggests each dollar of capital spending can support greater revenue generation and potentially higher returns on investment. We've been skeptics on Copilot, but it's clear this AI tool is gaining traction in the enterprise.
微软将 Copilot 称为“面向工作的新操作系统”。在财报电话会上，首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉表示，Copilot 的日活用户同比增长 50%，用户满意度环比提升近 20%，达到历史新高。我们没有听到关于付费席位的新消息，但公司对其采用情况听起来很乐观。最后，我们赞赏微软不愿破坏其资产负债表、耗尽所有现金流。
Microsoft calls Copilot "the new OS [operating system] for work." On the earnings call, CEO Satya Nadella said that Copilot's daily users increased by 50% year over year, while user satisfaction improved by nearly 20% quarter over quarter to an all-time high. We didn't hear anything new regarding paid seats, but the company sounded upbeat about its adoption. Finally, we appreciate Microsoft's unwillingness to wreck its balance sheet and burn through all its cash flow.
资本支出（含融资租赁）为 452 亿美元，较上一季度的 410 亿美元和上年同期的 349 亿美元均有小幅增长。但微软的支出远低于分析师预期的 510 亿美元和管理层预测的 500 亿美元。尽管实际支出与管理层指引之间的部分差异源于第三方产能交付延迟——意味着部分支出将推迟到未来季度——但自由现金流依然稳健为正。
Capital expenditures (including finance leases) were $45.2 billion, up modestly from $41 billion in the prior quarter and $34.9 billion in the prior year. But Microsoft's spending was much lower than the $51 billion analysts had forecasted and the $50 billion projected by management. Although some of the differences between actual spending and management's guidance were due to those delays in third-party capacity deliveries — meaning some of that spending will be pushed into future quarters — free cash flow remains firmly in positive territory.
这种财务纪律使公司能够继续在 AI 领域激进投资，同时向股东回报资本，包括本季度 29 亿美元的股票回购。这个数额看似微不足道，但在 Alphabet 和 Meta 通过发行股票为 AI 投资融资、稀释现有股东权益的一年里，这值得注意。微软的正向自由现金流表明，业务没有迫切的现金需求。不过，首席财务官艾米·胡德承认，公司“将在我们认为有吸引力的时候获取额外资金来源”。
This financial discipline allows the company to continue investing aggressively in AI while also returning capital to shareholders, including $2.9 billion in share repurchases during the quarter. That amount may seem trivial, but it's noteworthy in a year when Alphabet and Meta issued equity to fund their AI investments, diluting existing shareholders. Microsoft's positive free cash flow suggests the business doesn't have any immediate cash needs. However, CFO Amy Hood acknowledged that the company "will access additional sources of funding when we believe it is attractive to do so."
我们不希望微软效仿 Meta 和 Alphabet 进行股权发行，因此未来需留意这一点。展望未来，公司本季度的营收展望略好于预期，主要得益于 Azure 在第三方产能受限的情况下仍持续超预期增长。
We do not want Microsoft to follow Meta and Alphabet's lead with equity offerings, so this is something to be mindful of in the future. Looking ahead, the company's revenue outlook for the current quarter was slightly better than expected, driven by continued upside in Azure despite third-party capacity constraints.
根据 FactSet 数据，Azure 收入预计将以固定汇率增长约 49% 至 50%，高于分析师预期的约 46% 增长。这所有因素加在一起，构成了一个出色的季度、稳健的指引以及持续的财务纪律，这可能使该股票成为市场上更具吸引力的超大规模云服务商之一。我们将目标价从 550 美元上调至 580 美元，并维持 2 级评级。
Azure revenue is expected to grow about 49%-50% in constant currency, above analyst forecasts of about 46% growth, according to FactSet. It all adds up to a great quarter, solid guidance, and continued financial discipline that could make this stock one of the more attractive hyperscalers in the market. We are increasing our price target to $580 from $550 and maintaining our 2 rating.
指引方面，微软的季度展望略有上调。公司预计 Agents and Infra（智能体与基础设施）部门收入将达到 801 亿至 807 亿美元，高于 FactSet 共识预期的 796 亿美元。在 Devices and Consumer（设备与消费者）部门，收入预计为 159 亿至 164 亿美元，大致与 FactSet 共识预期的 162.9 亿美元持平。这意味着微软预计公司总收入为 960 亿至 971 亿美元，高于华尔街预期的 956 亿美元。
Guidance Microsoft's quarterly outlook offered slight upside. The company guided revenue from its Agents and Infra segment to $80.1 billion to $80.7 billion, which is above the FactSet consensus of $79.6 billion. In Devices and Consumer, revenue is expected to be $15.9 billion to $16.4 billion, which is roughly in line with the consensus estimate of $16.29 billion, according to FactSet. This means Microsoft forecasts total company revenue of $96 billion to $97.1 billion, above the Street's $95.6 billion.
在资本支出方面，微软计划在第二季度支出超过 500 亿美元，全年日历年支出 1700 亿美元。全年数字略低于此前预期的 1750 亿美元，差异归因于第三方产能延迟 —— 这对半导体和电力基础设施供应链而言值得关注。（吉姆·克雷默慈善信托基金持有 MSFT 多头头寸。）
In terms of capex, Microsoft plans to spend over $50 billion in the second quarter and $170 billion over the calendar year. The full-year figure is slightly lower than the $175 billion previously expected, with the difference attributable to capacity delays at third parties — something to keep an eye on for the semiconductor and power infrastructure food chain. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long MSFT. )