缩窄港元兑美元的交易区间，若真正实施，可能增强稳定性并令公众感到安心，被誉为香港联系汇率制度之父的经济学家约翰·格林伍德（John Greenwood）表示。
Narrowing the Hong Kong dollar’s trading band against the US greenback may enhance stability and reassure the public if such a move were ever implemented, according to John Greenwood, the economist dubbed the father of the city’s currency peg.
“就维持固定汇率的有效性而言，更窄的区间至少对广大公众来说会更令人安心，”格林伍德作为Chartwell Institute高级顾问，周三在新闻发布会上说。“波动会减少，因此关于汇率可能在某个时点发生改变的投机也会减少。”港元自2005年起一直在7.75至7.85的区间内与美元挂钩。格林伍德同时也是香港金融管理局货币发行局小组委员会成员，他强调，自己关于缩窄区间的看法纯属学术探讨，并指出目前并没有官方讨论改变联系汇率制度。
“In terms of its effectiveness for the maintenance of the fixed rate, a narrower rate would, at least for the public at large, be more reassuring,” Greenwood, senior advisor of Chartwell Institute, said at a press briefing Wednesday. “There would be less variability and, therefore, less speculation that at some point it might be changed.”The Hong Kong dollar has been pegged to the US dollar within a 7.75 to 7.85 band that was set in 2005. Greenwood, who’s also a member of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s Currency Board Sub-Committee, emphasized that his thoughts on narrowing the band are purely academic and noted that no official discussions are taking place to change the linked exchange rate system.
他举例说，区间可以缩窄至7.79至7.81之间，并补充称，即使区间更窄，仍会给银行留下“充足的交易机会”。改变港元挂钩机制，将对香港当局长期坚持的这一制度构成挑战，该制度已维持亚洲金融枢纽数十年的稳定。即使是对交易区间的技术性微调，也有可能重塑投资者预期，并扰乱流行的套息交易——即借入成本较低的港元投资于收益率较高的美元资产。
For example, the band could be narrowed to a range between 7.79 and 7.81, he said, adding that even a tighter range would still leave banks “plenty of opportunities to trade.”Altering Hong Kong’s dollar peg would challenge the city authorities’ long-standing commitment to a system that has sustained stability in Asia’s financial hub for decades. Even technical tweaks to the trading band have the potential to reshape investor expectations and disrupt popular carry trades that borrow cheaper Hong Kong dollars to invest in higher-yielding greenback assets.
他认为，与其他理论选项相比——如扩大区间、固定单一汇率或挂钩其他货币——缩窄交易区间有“充分理由”。他补充说，在他的看法中，这些其他选项都没有经过“认真”讨论。
He saw a “good argument” for narrowing the trading band compared with alternative theoretical options — such as widening the band, fixing a single exchange rate, or pegging to a different currency. None of these other options have undergone “serious” discussion, in his view, he added.
随着香港金融体系与中国大陆的融合日益紧密，投资者对其自主权和联系汇率制的质疑频频浮现。香港特区官员已多次强调，他们无意改变自1983年以来实行的制度。
As Hong Kong’s financial system integrates more closely with mainland China, investor doubts frequently surface regarding its autonomy and the dollar peg. City officials have repeatedly stressed they have no intention of changing the system that’s been in place since 1983.