US military strikes against Iran remain possible despite a flurry of diplomatic activity in recent days ahead of the midterm elections, according to RBC Capital Markets LLC.

“The war has proven impervious to pre-election off-ramps, with both Washington and Tehran sticking to their entrenched negotiating positions,” analysts including Helima Croft wrote in a note. The “direction of travel still seemingly points to a near-term US military escalation,” they added.

The global oil market is focused on the potential for renewed hostilities in the region, possibly after the Nov. 3 midterms. President Donald Trump has given frequent signals he may resume the military campaign, and reports by both the Wall Street Journal and the Associated Press have suggested that Washington has told Middle East countries to be prepared for a fresh assault.

The key question is whether any new “action will constitute a final salvo before the US picks up and leaves, or if it will be a more extensive military operation to ‘finish the job’ and help orchestrate regime change,” the analysts wrote. “The risks of a more devastating Iranian retaliatory response would increase if the US opts for a more sweeping military campaign.”Among recent diplomatic activity, officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey met Iranian leaders in Tehran on Monday. In addition, the Wall Street Journal said Vice President JD Vance reached out to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the nation’s top security body. Trump downplayed the significance of his deputy’s move, saying it focused on medical supplies.

Brent crude traded slightly lower at $114.42 a barrel on Thursday. Prices have rallied more than 10% this month, touching the highest since April.

Following the midterms, “even if Congress cannot force an end to the war, Democratic control over one or both chambers will likely result in a more rigorous effort to control the purse strings,” RBC said.