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美伊在有限空袭之际审议调解人提议US, Iran Weigh Mediators’ Proposals Amid Limited Airstrikes

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根据一名被告知相关情况的外交官透露,伊朗和美国正在审议调解人关于如何弥合双方分歧并避免又一轮全面战争的最新提议。

Iran and the US are reviewing the latest proposals from mediators on how to bridge their divides and avert another round of all-out war, according to a diplomat briefed on the matter.

这位因讨论敏感事务而要求匿名的新闻外交官表示,卡塔尔调解人于周一飞往德黑兰,与伊朗官员举行了更多会谈,并于当天晚些时候返回。该外交官称,在伊朗首都举行的会谈是积极的。

Qatari mediators flew to Tehran on Monday for more talks with Iranian officials and returned late in the day, said the diplomat, who asked not to be named discussing sensitive matters. The talks in the Iranian capital were positive, the diplomat said.

据伊朗法尔斯通讯社报道,伊朗议会议长兼对美高级谈判代表穆罕默德·巴盖尔·卡利巴夫表示,他的国家已经“向美方作出了强有力的理性回应”。他补充说:“现在球到了美国那边,以防止战争爆发,”并重申伊朗已准备好对任何美以袭击进行猛烈报复。

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and a senior negotiator with the US, said his country had “delivered a strong and rational response to the American side,” according to a report from Iran’s Fars news agency. “The ball is now in America’s court to prevent a war,” he added, reiterating Iran is ready to retaliate fiercely against any US-Israeli attacks.

最新的外交努力是在紧张局势加剧数周之后展开的。在此期间,伊朗加大了对霍尔木兹海峡周边船只的打击力度,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普则暗示,他可能会在周二的中期选举之后下令对这个伊斯兰共和国发动新的轰炸行动。他的共和党预计将在这次选举中在国会失去许多席位给民主党。

The latest diplomatic efforts follow weeks of heightened tensions, with Iran stepping up strikes on ships around the Strait of Hormuz and US President Donald Trump signaling he could order a new bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic after Tuesday’s midterm elections, in which his Republican party is expected to lose many seats in Congress to the Democrats.

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡最近几周一直在鼓吹伊朗政权更迭的必要性。Axios新闻网周日报道称,他正在敦促特朗普在投票结束后立即打击伊朗。

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has in recent weeks talked up the need for regime change in Iran. Axios reported on Sunday that he is pressing Trump to strike Iran right after the vote.

据多家美国媒体报道,美国连夜打击了海峡内伊朗格什姆岛上的目标。

The US overnight struck targets on the Iranian island of Qeshm inside the strait, according to several American media outlets.

《华尔街日报》援引未具名的美国官员的话报道称,这些是有限的军事行动,旨在帮助船只安全通过该水道,并且至少在其中一次情况下,是对伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队向美国战机开火的回应。美国尚未宣布这些袭击。

They were limited military actions, designed to help ships sail safely through the waterway, and, at least in once instance, were in response to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps firing at an American jet, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified US officials. The US has not announced the attacks.

尽管过去一个月由于局势恶化,油价飙升——这进一步损害了特朗普在美国人中的政治地位——但在白宫表现出愿意为外交解决留出更多时间的迹象后,油价在周一暴跌了约10%。

While oil prices have soared over the past month on worsening tensions — further hurting Trump’s political standing among Americans — they tumbled around 10% on Monday on signs the White House is willing to allow more time for a diplomatic resolution.

布伦特原油周二早盘上涨1.7%,至每桶106.50美元,但仍远低于上周近118美元的收盘价。

Brent crude rose 1.7% to $106.50 a barrel in early trading on Tuesday, but remains far below last week’s close of almost $118.

特朗普在华盛顿中期选举前的最后一次讲话中对记者表示:“他们想要达成协议,而这可能会发生。”他补充说,油价已经下跌,因为“看起来事情进展得非常顺利”。

“They want to make a deal, and that could happen,” Trump told reporters in Washington during his closing message before the midterm elections. He added that oil prices had fallen because “it looks like that’s coming together very nicely.”

当一名记者大声询问他是否会在选举后恢复军事打击时,特朗普用嘴型回答说:“不。”周一早些时候,伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬表示,他的政府已获得最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的更多授权,以寻求和平会谈。

When a reporter shouted a question about whether he would resume military strikes after the elections, Trump mouthed: “No.”Earlier on Monday, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said his government has been granted more authority by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to pursue peace talks.

据官方的伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社援引佩泽希齐扬的话报道:“我们正努力通过对话解决问题,在这方面,最高领袖也赋予了政府某些权力。”

“We are striving to resolve the issue through dialogue and, in this regard, the supreme leader has also granted certain powers to the government,” the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency cited Pezeshkian as saying.

这位伊朗总统没有澄清哈梅内伊赋予的新权力范围,也没有说明这是否标志着该伊斯兰共和国的更广泛转变。

The Iranian president didn’t clarify the extent of the new authority bestowed by Khamenei or whether it signals a broader shift for the Islamic Republic.

霍尔木兹海峡。The Strait of Hormuz.

特朗普曾多次表示,他将很快解决伊朗冲突,要么通过达成协议,要么通过恢复大规模打击。这场战争始于2月下旬,当时美国和伊斯兰国(原文如此)开始轰炸伊朗目标并暗杀高级官员,其中包括前最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊。

Trump has repeatedly said he will resolve the Iran conflict soon, either with a deal or by resuming extensive strikes. The war began in late February when the US and Israel started bombing Iranian targets and assassinating senior officials in strikes, including former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

美国官员最初谈到这场战争不会持续超过4到6周,特朗普对伊朗的韧性感到越来越沮丧。这场冲突通过对阿拉伯联合王国(原文如此)、沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔等美国盟友进行反击,在整个波斯湾地区造成了混乱。它通过袭击船只,一度实质性地关闭了霍尔木兹海峡,推高了石油和液化天然气价格。

US officials initially talked of a war lasting no more than four to six weeks and Trump has grown frustrated with Iran’s resilience. It caused chaos across the Persian Gulf region with counter-strikes on American allies such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. And it effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz for a period by attacking ships, boosting oil and liquefied natural gas prices.

燃油成本的上升——美国的柴油价格创下纪录,汽油平均价格突破每加仑4美元——促使美国人转向反对这场冲突。

The rise in fuel costs, with diesel hitting a record in the US and gasoline surpassing $4 a gallon on average, contributed to Americans turning against the conflict.

在4月初达成休战协议后,双方经常发生小规模冲突,尽管其激烈程度远低于战争的第一阶段。他们在6月达成了一项所谓的谅解备忘录,本意是促成正式和平,但在大约两周内就破裂了。

Following a truce in early April, the sides have skirmished regularly, though with far less intensity than during the first phase of the war. They agreed on a so-called memorandum on understanding in June that was meant to lead to a formal peace, but it broke down within about two weeks.

在周一发表上述言论后,特朗普在社交媒体上写道:“油价正在暴跌,每桶下跌近10美元,创下纪录,因为人们觉得不会与伊朗发生战争。”特朗普的副总统万斯周临摹了这些更为温和的言论。

After his remarks on Monday, Trump wrote on social media that “Oil Prices are DROPPING LIKE A ROCK, down almost $10 a Barrel, A RECORD, because people feel that there will not be a War with Iran.”Trump’s Vice President JD Vance echoed the more dovish comments on Monday.

他对记者表示:“我们与伊朗人进行了多次良好的对话。总统和我对可能通过谈判达成协议的前景都感觉相当不错。当然,伊朗人总是有点不可预测。”交战双方之间似乎仍存在重大分歧。德黑兰希望美国解除对其港口的的海军封锁,并希望美国承诺放松制裁并解冻资产。华盛顿则要求伊朗就其核计划作出让步。

“We’ve had a number of good conversations with the Iranians,” he told reporters. “The president and I both feel pretty good about the prospects of potentially coming to a negotiated settlement. Of course, the Iranians are always a little unpredictable.”Major differences seem to remain between the warring sides. Tehran wants a US naval blockade of its ports lifted and US pledges to ease sanctions and release frozen assets. Washington is demanding concessions related to Iran’s nuclear program.

伊朗外长阿拉格齐在访问土库曼斯坦期间表示:“磋商和审议已经变得高度密集。我们已经提出了我们的条件和计划,一切都取决于华盛顿的政治理性。如果他们图谋欺骗和军事行动,他们将面临比以往更严厉、更沉重的回击。”国际危机组织伊朗项目主任阿里·瓦埃兹认为,伊朗战略的关键在于达成一项确保美国或以色列未来不会发动袭击的协议。

“Consultations and deliberations have become highly intensive,” Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said during a visit to Turkmenistan. “We have presented our terms and plan, and everything depends on Washington’s political rationality. If they intend deception and military operations, they will face a response harsher and heavier than before.”Key to Iran’s strategy is getting a deal that ensures there’ll be no future attacks by the US or Israel, according to Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

他表示:“德黑兰愿意谈判结束战争,但它想要的不仅仅是下一轮敌对行动之前的短暂停火。它寻求的是一个能够恢复其威慑力的持久和平。”哈梅内伊已下令其高级军事指挥官为与美国和以色列的新一轮对抗做准备,并扩大德黑兰的报复选项。

“Tehran is willing to negotiate an end to the war, but it wants more than a pause before the next round of hostilities,” he said. “It seeks a durable peace that restores its deterrence.”Khamenei has ordered his top military commanders to prepare for renewed confrontation with the US and Israel and expand Tehran’s options for retaliation.

这加剧了海湾阿拉伯国家的担忧,即准备更充分的伊朗可能会在整个地区引发一场更具破坏性的战争,而让他们去收拾残局。

That has fueled fears among Gulf Arab states that a better-prepared Iran could unleash an even more destructive war across the region, leaving them to pick up the pieces.

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