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官员称,伊朗在僵局中拖延谈判以影响美国中期选举Iran prolongs talks in stalemate to influence US midterms, officials say

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2026年9月23日,伊朗德黑兰,一名男子走过一幅反美壁画。Majid Asgaripour/西亚通讯社(WANA)经由路透社供图A man walks past an anti-U.S. mural in Tehran, Iran, September 23, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

资深官员称,伊朗故意拖延与美国的谈判,试图在11月美国中期选举前削弱唐纳德·特朗普的政治地位,而对新的军事行动的担忧以及对华盛顿的深层不信任,进一步强化了德黑兰不愿迅速达成协议结束战争的意愿。

Iran has deliberately prolonged talks with the US to try to weaken Donald Trump politically ahead of November's US midterm elections, senior officials say, while fears of renewed military action and deep distrust of Washington have reinforced Tehran's reluctance to strike a quick deal to end the war.

三名伊朗高级官员和一名伊朗内部人士在匿名条件下表示,德黑兰确信美国总统准备诉诸新的攻击,以试图打破这场持续八个月的战争的僵局。

Three senior Iranian officials and an Iranian insider, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Tehran was convinced the US president was ready to resort to renewed attacks to try to break the stalemate in the eight-month-old war.

“伊朗正在为新的以色列和美国攻击做准备,而不是为与美国达成结束战争的协议,”其中一名官员说。“神权体制决心不给特朗普带来政治胜利。”德黑兰分析人士赛义德·莱拉兹表示,通过拖延谈判,“伊朗在不采取任何非法行动的情况下影响美国选举”。

"Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war," one of the officials said. "The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory." Tehran analyst Saeed Leylaz said that, by prolonging the talks, "Iran is influencing the US election without taking any unlawful action".

这场战争始于2月,当时美国及其盟友以色列对伊朗发动打击,这场战争已帮助将特朗普的支持率推至历史最低点,民调显示,担心高汽油价格的美国选民将在11月3日的国会选举中惩罚他的共和党。

The war, which began in February when the US and its ally Israel launched strikes on Iran, has helped drive Trump’s approval rating to a record low as polls suggest that Americans worried about high gasoline prices will punish his Republican Party in the November 3 congressional elections.

特朗普多次表示,他预计选举后油价将下跌,但并未提供结束战争、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的详细计划,这是一条重要的全球能源航运通道,自战争开始以来实际上已被伊朗关闭。

Trump has repeatedly said he expects oil prices to drop after the elections, but has not offered a detailed plan to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy shipping route effectively closed by Iran since the war began.

伊朗的攻击无论是实际发生还是威胁,都使通过该海峡的船只交通几乎停滞,而美国的海上封锁和贸易制裁则切断了伊朗的石油出口收入,并加剧了日益严重的国内经济困境。

Iranian attacks both threatened and real have kept ship traffic through the strait to a trickle, while a US maritime blockade and trade sanctions have cut off Iran's oil export revenues and exacerbated growing domestic economic woes.

官员们表示,由于德黑兰拒绝做出其认为可能使特朗普在政治上获益的让步,选举前几乎没有取得突破的可能性。

With Tehran refusing to make concessions it believes could benefit Trump politically, there is little chance of a breakthrough before the elections, the officials said.

在以色列的压力下,华盛顿希望将伊朗长达数十年的核计划(伊朗方面声称该计划完全用于和平目的,而西方国家则认为该计划具有军事用途)作为谈判的焦点。

Under pressure from Israel, Washington wants Iran’s decades-long nuclear programme - which Iran says is purely peaceful and Western powers allege has military dimensions - on the table from the outset.

另一方面,德黑兰坚持认为,在核谈判开始之前,必须先满足其提出的“七天计划”中的各项条件。同时,伊朗也不打算放弃因冲突而获得的控制霍尔木兹海峡的权力。伊朗外交部和美国白宫均未回应路透社的评论请求。

For its part, Tehran insists that its conditions under a "seven-day plan" must be met before nuclear negotiations begin. And it offers no prospect of giving up the leverage over the Strait of Hormuz that the conflict prompted it to seize. Iran's Foreign Ministry and the US White House did not respond to Reuters requests for comment.

伊朗通过卡塔尔调解人提出的方案建议:在华盛顿解除海上封锁、放宽对伊朗石油出口的限制、解冻被冻结的资产以及结束所有方面的敌对行动的前提下,伊朗愿意在七天内重新开放霍尔木兹海峡,但海峡仍由伊朗控制。

Iran’s proposal, conveyed through Qatari mediators, offered to reopen the strait within seven days, albeit under Iranian control, provided that Washington lifted its maritime blockade, eased restrictions on Iranian oil exports, released frozen assets and ended hostilities on all fronts.

伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉克奇周日表示,这一提议仍然有效,双方正在通过调解人进行沟通。

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday that the offer remained on the table, with messages being exchanged through mediators.

一位伊朗官员指出,德黑兰之所以不信任华盛顿会真正致力于外交谈判,是因为此前针对伊朗的袭击破坏了多轮谈判的进程。

Tehran's view that Washington cannot be trusted to commit to diplomacy stems from the attacks on Iran that have derailed previous negotiations, one Iranian official said.

2025年6月,以色列的袭击破坏了美国和伊朗在阿曼举行的第六轮核谈判的进程;去年2月,在另一轮谈判结束后不久,美国和以色列便发动了战争,而后续的技术性讨论也未能如期进行。

In June 2025, an Israeli attack wrecked plans for a sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman. And last February, the US and Israel launched their war just after another round of talks ended, with further technical discussions scheduled.

通过美国中期选举这一“过渡期”,伊朗既能持续对华盛顿施加压力,同时也能重申自己致力于外交解决的立场。

Maintaining a state somewhere between war and peace through the US midterms allows Iran to sustain pressure on Washington while reiterating its commitment to diplomacy.

特朗普曾表示美国在11月3日之前不会再次轰炸伊朗;不过相关官员表示,德黑兰仍认为轰炸行动迟早会重新发生。

Trump has said the US will not bomb Iran again before November 3. However, the officials said Tehran continues to expect that bombing will resume, sooner or later.

华盛顿中东研究所伊朗问题研究主任亚历克斯·瓦坦卡指出,伊朗的宗教精英阶层显然希望从政治上打击特朗普。

Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said the clerical establishment clearly wanted to hurt Trump politically.

“但根本问题在于,德黑兰认为特朗普有意推动伊朗政权的更迭……并试图追随以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的政策,企图推翻伊朗的现政权。”他说。

"But the fundamental issue is that Tehran believes that Trump is interested in regime change ... and following Israeli Prime Minister (Benjamin) Netanyahu’s policy of seeking to bring down Iran’s ruling establishment," he said.

三名以色列官员透露,美国国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯周一与内塔尼亚胡就伊朗问题进行了会谈。此次访问并未提前公布,发生在议会选举前一周;内塔尼亚胡的执政地位正面临威胁。

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed Iran with Netanyahu on Monday, three Israeli officials said, in an unannounced visit to Israel a week before a parliamentary election in which Netanyahu's position is at risk.

伊朗采取的策略是维持谈判的进程,但避免急于达成协议——然而这种策略需要付出代价。长期的不确定性正在重压着本已陷入困境的伊朗经济,也不断消耗着民众的耐心。新年伊始,伊朗安全部队镇压了日益激烈的反政府抗议活动,导致数千人死亡。

Iran’s strategy of keeping negotiations alive without rushing towards agreement comes at a cost. Prolonged uncertainty is weighing on Iran’s already crippled economy and wearing down public patience. Thousands were killed at the turn of the year when the security forces crushed spiralling anti-government protests.

根据伊朗统计局的数据,9月份的年通胀率达到了73.6%;自7月华盛顿重新实施海上封锁以来,伊朗里亚尔对美元的汇率下跌了近35%。能源情报平台Vortexa指出,伊朗的原油海运出口量在9月第二周降为零(而月初时这一数字仍为每天23万桶),截至10月5日这一状况仍未改变。

Annual inflation hit 73.6% in September, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran, and the rial currency has fallen nearly 35% against the dollar since Washington reapplied its naval blockade in July. Iran’s seaborne crude exports fell to zero in the second week of September from a 14-day average of 230,000 barrels per day at the start of the month, and remained there as of October 5, according to energy intelligence platform Vortexa.

莱拉兹表示,伊朗领导层对华盛顿的不信任不仅限于当前这场冲突,还涉及更根本的生存安全问题。他们认为,即使伊朗方面始终遵守协议,美国也多次违背了自己的承诺;因此,他们对任何能够长期有效的全面协议都缺乏信心。

But the leadership's distrust of Washington extends beyond the current conflict to existential concerns. Iran believes the US has repeatedly broken agreements even when Tehran honoured its commitments, Leylaz said, leaving little confidence that any comprehensive deal would endure.

“由于双方之间的不信任日益加深,即使特朗普政府下台后,也与美国达成可持续的协议也已变得不可能。一切都将回到战前的状态。”莱拉兹说。

“Reaching a sustainable deal with the US, even after the Trump administration, is no longer possible because of the deepened distrust,” Leylaz said. "Nothing will go back to the pre-war status quo."

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