
伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐表示,伊朗官员已与卡塔尔调解人就一项在两天内重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的计划进行了会谈,这是寻找外交途径摆脱美以对伊朗战争的最新努力,这场战争引发了严重的全球能源危机。
Iranian officials have been speaking with Qatari mediators about a two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in the latest effort to find a diplomatic path out of the US-Israel war on Iran that has caused a serious global energy crisis.
但即使出现外交进展的迹象,双方官员均表示已为军事冲突再度升级做好准备。美国总统特朗普曾多次暗示美国可能在11月3日中期选举后袭击伊朗,他表示最新谈判“进展顺利”,但补充称美国仍有几个伊朗目标需要“处理”。
But even amid signs of diplomatic progress, officials from both sides say they are ready for renewed military escalation President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly suggested the United States could attack Iran after the November 3 midterm elections, said the latest negotiations were “going fine”, but added that the US still had several Iranian targets to “take care of”.
与此同时,阿拉格齐还表示,伊朗军队比以往任何时候都更为战争做好了准备,而该国安全委员会秘书雷扎伊威胁称,伊朗将以“新型武器”回应任何未来的袭击。
Meanwhile, Araghchi has also said Iran’s military was more prepared than ever for renewed war, while the country’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, threatened Iran would use “new weaponry” in response to any future attack.
以下是关于最新外交努力、双方强硬言辞以及对未来局势可能意味着什么的已知情况:谈判进展如何?
Here’s what we know about the latest diplomatic efforts and the sharp rhetoric from both sides, and what it could mean for what lies ahead: What is the status of talks?
阿拉格齐周六表示,一个包括其助手在内的伊朗代表团前往多哈与卡塔尔调解人会晤。此前,卡塔尔官员也曾前往德黑兰进行磋商。
Araghchi said on Saturday that an Iranian delegation, including one of his aides, travelled to Doha to meet Qatari mediators. Earlier, Qatari officials also travelled to Tehran for consultations.
阿拉格齐告诉半岛电视台,多哈最新的讨论集中在一项计划上,即在两天内重新开放这一全球能源咽喉要道霍尔木兹海峡,并重启与美国的和谈,前提是华盛顿满足德黑兰提出的一系列要求。
The latest discussions in Doha centred on a plan that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint, within two days and restart peace talks with the US, provided Washington meets a set of demands from Tehran, Araghchi told Al Jazeera.
阿拉格齐称,这些要求包括:解除近期实施的美国制裁、恢复6月授予的石油豁免、减少美军在该地区的军事存在、承认伊朗和阿曼指定的霍尔木兹海峡新航道、以及结束所有战线的冲突,包括以色列对黎巴嫩的袭击。
Those demands include the lifting of recently imposed US sanctions, the reinstatement of oil waivers granted in June, a reduction in the US military presence in the region, recognition of new shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz designated by Iran and Oman, and an end to the conflict on all fronts, including Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, said Araghchi.
这位伊朗资深外交官表示,卡塔尔和巴基斯坦调解人“正就我们的条件继续磋商”。
Qatari and Pakistani mediators were “continuing consultations regarding our conditions”, said the top Iranian diplomat.
巴基斯坦一直在美伊之间进行斡旋,其陆军参谋长、元帅阿西姆·穆尼尔多次访问德黑兰,作为结束战争外交努力的一部分。多哈和伊斯兰堡在促成六月谅解备忘录(MoU)方面发挥了关键作用,该备忘录于八月破裂。
Pakistan has been mediating between the US and Iran, with its army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, visiting Tehran several times as part of the diplomatic efforts to end the war. Doha and Islamabad played key roles in theg of the June memorandum of understanding (MoU) that collapsed in August.
伊朗的礼萨伊表示,美国已“表明愿意”接受其条件,尽管华盛顿尚未证实这一点。
Iran’s Rezaei said the US had “indicated its readiness” to accept its conditions, although Washington has not confirmed this.
在美方,国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥确认卡塔尔主导的会谈正在进行,但表示他不清楚会谈的时间框架。
On the US side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed Qatar-led talks were ongoing, but said he was not aware of a timeframe for them.
“存在多条谈判渠道。谈判实际上从未停止,”鲁比奥说。“如果存在外交解决方案,我们将持开放态度。” 伊朗为何注意到美国“语气”的变化?
“There are multiple talks. Talks have actually never stopped,” said Rubio. “If there is a diplomatic solution, we would be open to it.”Why has Iran noted a change in the US’s ‘tone’?
重启的外交活动发生在本周早些时候,美国副总统JD·万斯致信礼萨伊,据报道旨在探明重启谈判的前景,并避免另一轮军事升级。
The renewed diplomatic activity comes after US Vice President JD Vance sent a letter earlier this week to Rezaei, reportedly seeking to gauge the prospects of restarting negotiations and averting another round of military escalation.
礼萨伊周六确认已阅读该信件,并表示其语气与特朗普早前的通信相比已“完全改变”。阿拉格齐也表示他已研读万斯的来信,并对其给予积极评价。
Rezaei confirmed on Saturday that he had read the letter, whose tone he said had “completely changed” compared with earlier correspondence from Trump. Araghchi also said he had studied Vance’s letter, which he described positively.
“美方试图更广泛地敞开对话与理解之门,这是一个积极步骤,”阿拉格齐告诉半岛电视台。
“The American side’s attempt to open the door to dialogue and understanding more broadly is a positive step,” Araghchi told Al Jazeera.
然而,他警告说:“如果华盛顿发送这封信的目的是挑拨离间,那将是又一个错误,加在它之前的错误之上。” 伊朗对和平与战争前景有何表态?
However, he warned, “If Washington’s goal in sending this letter is to stir up discord, it would be yet another mistake to add to its previous ones.”What has Iran said about prospects for peace and war?
伊朗官员表示,如果美国满足其条件,他们愿意进行新的和平谈判,但在任何新的军事对抗中也已准备好采取更强硬的行动。
Iranian officials have said they are open to new peace talks if the US meets their conditions, but also ready to act more aggressively in any new military confrontation.
“我知道我们的武装部队比以往任何时候都更为战争做好了准备,我们已为任何情景做好准备,”阿拉格齐告诉半岛电视台。
“I know that our armed forces are more prepared for war than any time before, and we are ready for any scenario,” Araghchi told Al Jazeera.
据最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的一份声明称,如果美国或以色列出现任何新的军事威胁,伊朗的回应将是“即时”的,且“毫无地理限制”。
In the event of any new military threat from the US or Israel, Iran’s response would be “immediate” and “without geographical limitations”, according to a statement by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
哈梅内伊下令指挥官更新伊朗的目标清单,将“美犹复敌拥有的一切有形和无形资产”纳入其中。
Khamenei ordered commanders to update Iran’s target list to include “all types of tangible and intangible assets belonging to the American-Zionist enemy”.
礼萨伊对半岛电视台表示,伊朗将在回应任何未来袭击时使用“新型武器”。他还表示,伊朗政府正在权衡改变其“核学说”,目前该学说包含禁止核武器的规定。
Rezaei told Al Jazeera that Iran would use “new weaponry” in its response to any future attacks. He also said Iran’s government was weighing a change to its “nuclear doctrine”, which currently includes a ban on nuclear weapons.
伊朗的核计划一直是其与美国冲突的主要争议点,特朗普曾多次表示,绝不能允许伊朗获得核武器。德黑兰坚称其核计划用于民用目的。特朗普的最新表态是什么?
Iran’s nuclear programme has been a major point of contention in the conflict with the US, and Trump has repeatedly said Iran must never be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon. Tehran insists its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes. What is the latest from Trump?
这位美国总统关于和谈状态发出了矛盾信号。周六,他说谈判“进展顺利”,但补充说它们“并不可靠”。
The US president has sent mixed signals about the status of peace talks. On Saturday, he said negotiations were “going fine” but added that they were “not very reliable”.
他还表示,美军仍需“处理”几个伊朗地点,特别点出了一个名为“镐山”的疑似地下核设施。特朗普补充说,美国能“非常迅速”实现其军事目标,且不着急。
He also said the US military still needed to “take care of” several Iranian sites, singling out a suspected underground nuclear complex known as Pickaxe Mountain Trump added that the US could achieve its military objectives “very quickly” and was not in a hurry.
此前,他曾威胁重启将“彻底摧毁”伊朗的袭击,而据报道,美国已警告其海湾盟友,在中期选举后做好准备,应对一轮短期、高强度的冲突。
Previously, he threatened to renew attacks that would “finish off” Iran, while the US has reportedly warned its Gulf allies to prepare for a short, high-intensity round of conflict after the midterm elections.
鲁比奥表示,特朗普尚未决定是否实施新打击,但警告称,美国“如果寻求的话,能够实现军事目标”。以色列将如何影响这一核算?
Rubio said Trump had not yet decided on whether to carry out new strikes, but warned the US “can achieve military objectives if we seek to”. How could Israel play into the calculation?
据以色列Ynet新闻网站援引一位以色列高级官员的话称,以色列于二月参与发动了对伊朗的战争,正在为美国中期选举后可能到来的另一轮冲突做准备。
Israel, which joined the US in initiating the war against Iran in February, is preparing for another round of potential conflict right after the US midterm elections, according to a senior Israeli official cited by Israel’s Ynet News site.
以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡表示,以色列拥有“历史性的、一次性的机会……彻底消除伊朗威胁”。虽然内塔尼亚胡领导的联盟在最近的立法选举中失去了议会多数席位,但这位77岁的领导人仍以看守总理身份留任,直至新政府组建完成。
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel has a “historic, one-time opportunity … to remove the Iranian threat once and for all”. While Netanyahu’s coalition lost its parliamentary majority in recent legislative elections the 77-year-old leader remains in office as caretaker until a new government is formed.
伦敦国王学院安全研究副教授安德烈亚斯·克里格对半岛电视台表示,内塔尼亚胡的威胁使伊朗的战略考量变得复杂,因为德黑兰担心“即使与华盛顿达成核协议,也可能无法终结以色列再次发动袭击的威胁”。
Andreas Krieg, an associate professor of security studies at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera that Netanyahu’s threats complicate Iran’s calculus because Tehran fears “even a nuclear agreement with Washington may not end the threat of another Israeli attack”.
伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队政治事务副司令亚多拉·贾瓦尼准将表示,伊朗武装力量正基于美国或以色列随时可能发动打击这一假设进行行动。是什么解释了并行的外交努力与战争言论?
Brigadier-General Yadollah Javani, the deputy for political affairs of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Iranian forces are operating on the assumption that the US or Israel could strike at any moment. What explains the parallel diplomatic efforts and war rhetoric?
国际危机组织资深伊朗问题分析师哈米德雷扎·阿齐齐表示,德黑兰在推行外交的同时,也在“试图重新定义”另一场潜在冲突的军事含义。
Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst with the Crisis Group, said Tehran is pursuing diplomacy while also “attempting to redefine” the military implications of another potential conflict.
他在社交媒体X上的一篇帖文中写道:“目前,外交与军事准备正在同步进行。伊朗新浮现的立场似乎是:协议依然可能达成,但另一场战争将在不同的规则下、在战场宽广得多的范围内进行。”
“For now, diplomacy and military preparations are proceeding simultaneously,” he wrote in a post on X. “The emerging Iranian position seems to be that an agreement remains possible, but another war would be fought under different rules and on a much wider battlefield.”
他补充道:“华盛顿是将这些警告视为可信的威慑,还是视为进一步的升级威胁,可能会显著影响接下来的事态发展。”克里格表示,11月3日的选举给了伊朗一个拖延让步的动机,以剥夺特朗普一场外交胜利。但一旦选举结束,当特朗普在军事行动上受到的国内政治制约减少时,这种算计可能会改变。
He added, “Whether Washington takes these warnings as credible deterrence or further escalatory threats could significantly influence what happens next.”Krieg said the November 3 elections give Iran an incentive to delay concessions to deny Trump a diplomatic victory. But that calculus could change afterwards when he has fewer domestic political restraints on military action.
克里格说:“因此,我们可能会达到这样一种局面:伊朗变得更愿意妥协,恰恰是华盛顿变得更愿意动武的时候。”
“We could therefore reach a situation where Iran becomes more willing to compromise precisely when Washington becomes more willing to strike,” said Krieg.