
中国铜买家在供应趋紧的市场中抢购货源,推动衡量进口需求的关键指标飙升至历史新高。
Chinese copper buyers rushing to secure supply in a tightening market have sent a key gauge of import demand shooting to a record high.
衡量中国进口商支付高于伦敦金属交易所价格溢价的“洋山溢价”,周三飙升至每吨200多美元。这是Fastmarkets自2017年有数据以来的最高水平。
The Yangshan premium, which measures what Chinese importers pay above London Metal Exchange prices, spiked on Wednesday to more than $200 a ton. That’s the highest in Fastmarkets data going back to 2017.
过去几个月来,该溢价的激增反映出国内外对铜的竞争加剧。该溢价以上海港命名,该港是中国铜进口的主要枢纽。美国进口关税的前景导致大量铜被运往美国,而在中国,库存减少,产量放缓。
The surge in the premium — named after a Shanghai port that’s a major hub for Chinese copper imports — over the last couple of months reflects greater competition for the metal both inside and outside the country. The prospect of US import tariffs has seen massive volumes being sent there, while, in China, inventories have thinned and output has eased.
“铜在各地都已售罄,”位于上海的咨询公司Mysteel Global的分析师肖传康说。“由于供应短缺,溢价将保持高位。”由于中国是世界上最大的铜买家,中国的进口溢价长期以来一直是全球铜市场密切关注的指标。但围绕特朗普总统关税计划的不确定性,或许已成为今年该金属的主要驱动因素。
Copper is “sold out everywhere,” said Xiao Chuankang, an analyst at Shanghai-based consultancy Mysteel Global. “The premium will remain elevated due to supply scarcity.”China’s import premium has long been a closely watched gauge for the global copper market because of the nation’s role as the world’s biggest buyer. But uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff plans has arguably become the main driver for the metal this year.
交易商预计特朗普将首次将关税扩大到精炼铜,因此已将数十万吨铜运往美国。尽管全球库存总体并不低,但库存高度集中在美国。
Traders have shipped hundreds of thousands of tons to the US in anticipation of Trump expanding the levies to refined copper for the first time. While overall global inventories are not low in aggregate, the stockpiles are heavily concentrated in the US.
交易商表示,尽管伦敦金属交易所价格接近历史高位,中国需求依然稳定。更多铜可能开始从非洲出口,但可能需要一到两个月才能抵达这个亚洲国家。
Demand in China remains steady despite LME prices that are near a record high, according to traders. More copper may start being exported from Africa, but that’s likely to take one to two months to arrive in the Asian nation.
中国库存低于一年中的典型水平,而铜冶炼厂面临更高成本,已削减产量并威胁进一步削减。中国第三季度精炼铜产量较去年同期下降1.1%。
Chinese inventories are below typical levels for this time of year, while copper smelters have pared production and threatened more cuts as they face higher costs. Chinese output of refined copper fell 1.1% in the third quarter from a year earlier.
LME铜在上海时间下午1时13分报每吨14,472美元,与前一日基本持平,此前已连续四日上涨。红色金属今年已飙升16%,并在9月触及14,875美元的历史高点。
Copper was little changed at $14,472 a ton on the LME as of 1:13 p.m. in Shanghai, following four days of gains. The red metal has rallied 16% this year and touched an all-time high of $14,875 in September.