美国中期选举似乎对执政的共和党不利，民调显示民主党在众议院和参议院平均领先8个百分点。但如果民主党夺得众参两院中的一院或两院，能否影响即将到来的欧洲选举？
The United States midterm elections appear stacked against the ruling Republicans, with polls suggesting the Democrats average an eight-point lead in the House of Representatives and the Senate. But if Democrats take one or both houses, could they affect upcoming elections in Europe?
分析人士和观察人士告诉半岛电视台，从根本上说不能，但除了跨大西洋关系可能出现受欢迎的改善外，他们指出了两个潜在的不利影响。
Not fundamentally, analysts and observers have told Al Jazeera, but besides a welcome improvement in transatlantic relations, they point to two potentially adverse effects.
首先，民主党控制的国会可能会让欧洲人对本国的极右翼运动产生自满情绪。
First, a Democratic Congress might produce complacency among Europeans regarding their own far-right movements.
其次，这可能会刺激美国总统唐纳德·特朗普加大对乌克兰的施压，迫使其达成一项其不愿与俄罗斯达成的协议。
Second, it might spur US President Donald Trump to raise pressure on Ukraine to make a deal it doesn’t want to make with Russia.
卡内基欧洲中心非常驻学者、专门研究欧洲极右翼政治的凯瑟琳·菲斯奇表示：“如果民主党赢得众议院，更不用说两院全赢，这将被解读为：‘看，民主制度能够自我修复。’”她表示，这将带来“这些事情并不意味着法西斯政权的到来”这一观念。
“If the Democrats win the House, let alone both houses, it will be read as, ‘you see democracies bounce back,’” said Catherine Fieschi, a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Europe, specialising in European far-right politics. It would introduce “the idea that these things don’t mean the advent of a fascist regime”, she said.
身在巴黎的菲斯奇说，她设想民主党获胜将引发“关于我们是否应该像某些人说的那样担心玛丽娜·勒庞当选，还是说实际上这是此消彼长、周而复始的事情，到了某个时候，如果人们真的很糟糕、真的很无能，选举就会纠正一切”的全方位讨论。
From her vantage point in Paris, Fieschi said she imagines a Democratic win leading to “a whole discussion about whether we should fear a Marine Le Pen election as much as some people say we should, or whether, in fact, it’s swings and roundabouts and, at some point, if people are really bad and really incompetent, then elections right the way,” she said.
法国右翼政客玛丽娜·勒庞目前在定于4月18日举行的总统选举民调中领跑，调查显示她拥有约34%的民意支持率。
French right-wing politician Marine Le Pen is currently leading the field in polling for presidential elections scheduled for April 18, with surveys indicating she has about 34 percent of the popular vote.
菲斯奇所指的这种自满情绪有先例。2025年6月，智库欧洲对外关系委员会（ECFR）在特朗普上任前六个月后对欧洲人进行了民调。西欧大多数受访者认为美国政治体制已崩溃。在东欧，大多数受访者认为运行良好——尽管这些受访者偏向右翼选民。
There is a precedent for the complacency Fieschi alludes to. In June 2025, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), a think tank, polled Europeans following Trump’s first six months in office. Clear majorities in Western Europe said the US political system was broken. In Eastern Europe, majorities said it was working well – though they were weighted towards right-wing voters.
希腊移民部长萨诺斯·普莱夫里斯则警告，不要过分归功于美国，认为是美国主导了欧洲人的思想和行动。
Greek Migration Minister Thanos Plevris warned against giving too much credit to the US for what Europeans think and do, however.
他说，他认为欧洲舆论独立地对庇护和经济移民态度趋于强硬，但美国通过更激烈地表达这种立场——以军事驱逐航班和武装的美国移民与海关执法局（ICE）特工扫荡美国城市——标志了这一转变。
He said he believes European public opinion hardened against asylum and economic migration independently, but the US marked the shift by expressing it more violently, with military deportation flights and armed Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents sweeping American cities.
“我认为欧洲在移民问题上发生了大转向。我们在德国看到了这一点，德国多年来对难民持欢迎态度，后来转向了更受控的政策。所有北欧政府都看到了社会的变化，”他对半岛电视台表示。
“I think there was a European about-turn on migration. We saw this in Germany, which had a welcoming attitude [to refugees] for many years, and they went to a more controlled policy. All northern European governments saw societies change,” he told Al Jazeera.
“但美国提供了基调的变化，从接纳、融合和施舍转向威慑、边境保护、增加遣返以及庇护被拒后的后果。我认为这一转向在欧洲确实起了作用，”普莱夫里斯补充道。
“But the US provided a change in tone, from induction and integration and benefaction to deterrence, border protection, increased returns and consequences if asylum is denied. I do think that pivot played a role in Europe,” Plevris added.
对乌克兰的连锁影响 如果法国选民决定唯一的出路是选举勒庞——正如菲耶斯基所言，“像某种强力药物，会让我们清醒过来，意识到我们可能失去什么”——他们将不得不面对三个有争议的主张：削减法国对欧盟联邦预算的财政缴款以支付提前退休费用、削减对乌克兰的军事援助，以及可能退出单一货币欧元，转而支持贬值的法郎。
The fallout for Ukraine Should French voters decide that the only way out is through electing Le Pen – “like some kind of strong medicine that would wake us up to what we might lose”, as Fieschi put it – they would have to contend with three controversial propositions – cutting French financial contributions to the European Union’s federal budget to pay for earlier retirement, cutting military aid to Ukraine and possibly leaving the single currency, the euro, in favour of a devalued franc.
其中任何一项政策举措都将是欧洲一体化进程的重大挫折，该进程已围绕贸易、货币，现在还有安全凝聚在一起。根据基尔研究所的乌克兰援助追踪器，削减对乌克兰的援助将移除其外国军事援助的3.5%，其他盟友将不得不填补这一缺口。
Any one of those policy moves would be a major setback for the European project, which has coalesced around trade, money and now security. A cut in assistance to Ukraine would remove 3.5 percent of its foreign military aid, according to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker which other allies would have to make up.
与此同时，“我们可能会陷入这样一种局面：特朗普基本上正在尽可能快地与普京达成交易，”菲耶斯基表示，他指的是美俄策略，即胁迫乌克兰接受一项涉及牺牲其东部顿巴斯地区的和平协议——乌克兰总统泽连斯基曾表示，这将是一个导致战争重燃的战略错误，且大多数乌克兰人反对这一点。
At the same time, “we could end up in a situation where Trump is basically clinching deals with Putin as fast as he can,” said Fieschi, referring to the US-Russian strategy to coerce Ukraine into a peace agreement that involves sacrificing its eastern Donbas region – something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said would be a strategic error leading to renewed war, and which a majority of Ukrainians are against.
特朗普已经利用美国对来袭弹道导弹的预警系统和“星链”卫星导航作为对乌克兰的筹码。他已两次呼应俄罗斯要求替换泽连斯基的呼声。
Trump has already leveraged US early warning on incoming ballistics and Starlink satellite navigation against Ukraine. He has twice echoed Russian calls for Zelenskyy to be replaced.
剑桥大学地缘政治中心乌克兰问题专家维多利亚·弗多维琴科表示，在这种来自困境重重的白宫的重压叠加之下，俄罗斯可能会加剧其“全域战争”，许多欧洲政府认为俄罗斯已经在对它们发动这种战争。
Compounding this renewed pressure from a beleaguered White House, Russia could intensify its “all-domain war”, which many European governments believe it is already waging against them, said Victoria Vdovychenko, a Ukraine expert at Cambridge University’s Centre for Geopolitics.
“认知战在欧洲大陆从未停止，俄罗斯人已经在最大限度地利用现有的脆弱性，”她告诉半岛电视台。“我希望欧洲伙伴能保持非常坚定。”
“Cognitive warfare never stopped on the European continent, and Russians are already using existing vulnerabilities to the utmost,” she told Al Jazeera. “I hope that the European partners will be staying very strong.”
观察人士称，欧洲人认为特朗普抛弃了二战后美欧建立的世界秩序，无视民主和人权，并背叛了乌克兰，这些已经改变了欧洲舆论。
What Europeans think Trump’s abandonment of the world order the US and Europe established after World War II, his disregard for democracy and human rights, and his betrayal of Ukraine have already transformed European public opinion, observers say.
根据德国智库贝特尔斯曼基金会的一项民调，只有31%的欧洲人将美国视为欧洲“最值得信赖的盟友”，低于2024年特朗普的前任乔·拜登执政时的51%。
Only 31 percent of Europeans see the US as Europe’s “most trustworthy ally”, down from 51 percent in 2024, when Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, was in office, according to a poll for the German think tank Bertelsmann Stiftung.
73%的各年龄段欧洲人表示，欧洲应该“走自己的路”，而不是继续与美国保持紧密合作，这一比例高于2024年的63%，且这一数字包括中间偏右和右翼人士中的明显多数。
Seventy-three percent of Europeans across all age groups say Europe should “go its own way” rather than continue a close cooperation with the US, up from 63 percent in 2024, and that figure includes a clear majority among those on the centre-right and right.
在今年的春季欧洲晴雨表调查中——这是欧盟委员会定期开展的民意测验——68%的受访者希望欧盟在保护欧洲人免受全球危机和安全风险侵害方面发挥更大作用，而39%的人希望将其列为首要任务。
In this year’s Spring Eurobarometer, a regular pulse-taking conducted by the European Commission, 68 percent of respondents wanted the EU’s role in protecting Europeans from global crises and security risks to increase, while 39 percent wanted it to be a top priority.
在为欧洲对外关系委员会进行的6月民调中，将美国描述为“盟友”的比例从2024年11月的22%下降至11%，受访地区涵盖东欧和西欧所有被调查领土。
In a June poll for the European Council on Foreign Relations, the description of the US as an “ally” fell from 22 percent in November 2024 to 11 percent across all territories polled in Eastern and Western Europe.
在为华盛顿智库皮尤研究中心进行的6月民调中，在36个被调查国家（其中9个为欧盟成员国）中，76%的受访者表示不信任特朗普，57%对美国持负面看法。
In a June poll for the Pew Research Center, a Washington-based think tank, 76 percent of people polled in 36 countries, of which nine were EU members, expressed no confidence in Trump, and 57 percent expressed unfavourable views of the US.
这种针对美国、尤其是共和党的态度转变，是在两个特朗普任期内形成的，在欧洲仍有俄罗斯战争正在进行的情况下，似乎很难通过一次国会选举就扭转过来。
It would appear that such shifts against the US and especially Republicans, formed over two Trump terms, would be difficult to reverse in a single congressional election, especially with a Russian war ongoing in Europe.