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欧洲人并不指望民主党掌控国会来拯救乌克兰Europeans aren’t betting on a Democratic Congress to save Ukraine

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2025年8月15日,在阿拉斯加埃尔门多夫-理查森联合基地举行的联合记者会上,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(右)与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京握手。President Donald Trump, right, shakes the hand of Russia's President Vladimir Putin during a joint press conference at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska, Aug. 15, 2025.

欧洲官员正在接受这样一个事实:中期选举中民主党获胜,也无法拯救乌克兰免受特朗普政府转向俄罗斯的影响。

European officials are resigning themselves to the fact that a Democratic victory in the midterms won’t rescue Ukraine from the Trump administration’s shift toward Russia.

民主党领导人承诺将调查特朗普总统近期亲莫斯科的行动,并通过立法加强乌克兰在战场上的地位。但五位参与基辅问题谈判的欧洲官员预计,即使民主党重新执政,也只能取得微小进展——例如恢复卫星服务、加快防空导弹交付。

Democratic leaders have vowed to investigate President Donald Trump’s recent pro-Moscow actions and pass legislation to bolster Ukraine on the battlefield. But five European officials involved in talks about Kyiv expect only modest gains if Democrats retake power — such as a restoration of satellite services and sped-up delivery of air defense missiles.

他们还在接受这样的认识:即使是国会中他们最大的支持者,也无法推动那种能够导致美国优先事项发生重大重组或军事援助激增的改变游戏规则的援助。

And they’re accepting the realization that even their biggest supporters in Congress won’t be able to force through the kind of game-changing assistance that would lead to a major realignment of American priorities or a surge in military aid.

“普遍的感觉是,这将是一种解脱,但美国政府将如何运作仍是个问号,”一位欧洲官员说。“我想我们什么都见过了。”即使是小动作,除非民主党下个月在两院都获得多数席位,否则不会有任何实质分量。他们的真正监督权要到明年年初新一届众议院和参议院会议开始时才会生效,这给了特朗普数月的自由时间,让他可以随心所欲地处理乌克兰问题。他们还需要将基辅置于一长串旨在推翻特朗普决定的国内优先事项之上。

“The general feeling is that it would come as a relief, but how the U.S. government will function remains a question mark,” said a European official. “I guess we’ve seen it all.”Even small moves won’t carry any real weight unless Democrats win majorities in both chambers of Congress next month. Their real oversight authority wouldn't kick in until early next year when the new House and Senate sessions begin, giving Trump months of freedom to do as he sees fit with Ukraine. They’d also need to prioritize Kyiv over a lengthy list of domestic priorities intended to unravel Trump’s decisions.

“国会前进的道路有多条,”一位民主党国会助手说,他和其他人一样,因获准匿名讨论内部对话。但这需要“那些声称对特朗普的亲普京议程感到愤怒的国会议员与民主党一起这样做。”议员们甚至公开承认,他们将面临艰巨的障碍,才能影响特朗普。

"There are multiple paths forward for Congress,” said a Democratic congressional aide, who like others, was granted anonymity to discuss internal conversations. But it requires “those members of Congress who claim to be outraged by Trump’s pro-Putin agenda to join Democrats in doing so.”Lawmakers are even admitting publicly that they would face daunting obstacles to swaying Trump.

“赢得选举是一个良好的第一步,但这将不足以”迫使美国对乌克兰政策发生转变,众议院军事委员会首席议员亚当·史密斯(民主党-华盛顿州)周二在CNN的一次采访中表示。

“Winning the elections is a good first step, but it's going to be insufficient” to force a turnaround on U.S. policy towards Ukraine, said House Armed Services Committee ranking member Adam Smith (D-Wash.), in a Tuesday interview on CNN.

白宫表示,总统只是试图结束这场已进入第四年的全面战争所造成的流血冲突。根据一份声明,“总统及其团队依然致力于继续在结束俄乌战争中发挥建设性作用。”“民主党没有改善美国民众生活的议程,只有毫无根据地阻挠特朗普总统的议程并扭转其成果的计划。”

The White House said the president is just trying to end the bloodshed of a full-scale war grinding through its fourth year. “The president and his team remain committed to continuing to play a constructive role in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine,” according to a statement. “The Democrats have no agenda to improve the lives of the American people, just plans to baselessly obstruct President Trump’s agenda and reverse his progress.”

欧洲正在应对自身的政治斗争,这可能会影响对基辅的支持。该大陆一些最大的强国也将在2027年面临重大的政治考验。法国极右翼领导人玛丽娜·勒庞在该国定于4月举行的总统选举民调中领跑,而德国总理弗里德里希·默茨——欧洲最著名的乌克兰支持者之一——却是欧洲最不受欢迎的领导人之一。“欧洲人并不押注民主党获胜会带来更强硬的乌克兰政策,”一位第二位欧洲官员表示。

Europe is grappling with its own political struggles, which could affect support for Kyiv. Some of the continent’s biggest powers are also set to face major political tests in 2027. Far-right French leader Marine Le Pen stands atop polls for the country’s presidential election in April, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz — one of the continent’s most prominent Ukraine backers — is among the least popular leaders in Europe. “Europeans are not betting their money” on Democratic victories fueling a stronger Ukraine policy, said a second European official.

“欧洲人更专注于在重大选举(包括法国大选)到来之前做出正确决定。”国会山两党对武装乌克兰和惩罚俄罗斯2022年入侵行为的广泛支持,近年来鲜有成果。自特朗普重返白宫以来,议员们尚未通过一项针对乌克兰的大型援助法案。而他们取得的为数不多的进展——针对莫斯科能源部门的重大两党制裁立法——刚刚因特朗普决定豁免大部分限制而被掏空。民主党仍看到一些较小的机会。

“Europeans are focused much more on getting the right decision made before big elections, including in France.”Broad bipartisan support on Capitol Hill for arming Ukraine and penalizing Russia for its 2022 invasion has produced few results in recent years. Lawmakers haven’t enacted a major aid package for Ukraine since Trump’s return to office. And the little progress they have made — major bipartisan sanctions legislation targeting Moscow’s energy sector — was just gutted by Trump’s decision to waive most restrictions.

“民主党占多数确实会改变局面,”众议院常设情报委员会首席议员、众议员吉姆·海姆斯(民主党-康涅狄格州)本月在华沙安全会议上表示。“这意味着援助方案不再需要九个月,而是九天或九周就能通过。传递的信息也截然不同……但我们的立法机构和流程要磨合出实质性成果仍需时日。”

Democrats still see some smaller opportunities.

民主党人可能会在跟进制裁法案上找到机会窗口,该法案以已故鹰派参议员、前参议员林赛·格雷厄姆(共和党-南卡罗来纳州)命名。众议院外交事务委员会首席议员格雷戈里·米克斯(民主党-纽约州)上周提出立法,旨在阻止特朗普与莫斯科达成购买柴油燃料的协议。该法案还将强制实施总统豁免的对俄能源制裁,以回应民主党对原格雷厄姆法案的担忧。

“[A Democratic majority] actually does change things,” said Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), ranking member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, at the Warsaw Security Conference this month. “It means that aid packages move not in nine months, but in nine days or nine weeks. And the message is very different … but it takes a while for our legislature and process to grind tangible things.”Democrats may find a window of opportunity in following up on the sanctions measure, named after the late Russia hawk and former Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) last week introduced legislation intended to block Trump from entering into a deal with Moscow to buy diesel fuel. That bill also would mandate sanctions on Russian energy that the president waived, in response to Democratic concerns with the original Graham bill.

海姆斯本周在与米克斯和史密斯的联合声明中表示,他们还支持对法律进行“修正”,以限制总统豁免制裁的权力,尽管这肯定会遭到白宫抵制。

Himes said in a joint statement with Meeks and Smith this week that they also supported a “fix” to the law that would curb the president’s ability to waive sanctions, although it’s certain to face White House pushback.

其他人则关注不同途径。根据一位参议院民主党助手透露,参议院外交关系委员会的民主党人——如果他们重夺控制权——打算开始通知参与向美国进口俄罗斯柴油的公司,该安排属于非法。

Others are eyeing a different approach. Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee — should they reclaim control — intend to start notifying the companies involved in importing Russian diesel into the U.S. that the arrangement is illegal, according to a Senate Democratic aide.

该助手称,该委员会打算指示这些公司(包括埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX)保存与该交易相关的文件,这些文件可能为未来的国会调查提供线索。

The panel intends to instruct those companies, including Elon Musk’s SpaceX, to preserve documents related to the deal that could prove informative to future congressional investigations, the aide said.

欧洲官员对这种小胜利抱有期待。他们主张,民主党主导的国会将在对俄问题上更强硬,而此时军方官员日益担忧克里姆林宫利用无人机和网络攻击针对北约领土。他们渴望任何遏制普京在美国影响力的努力。

European officials are hopeful for small wins such as those. They contend that a Democratic Congress would be tougher on Russia at a time when military officials are increasingly worried about the Kremlin targeting NATO territory with drones and cyberattacks. And they’re eager for any efforts to limit Putin’s influence in the U.S.

“我不认为有人相信我们会看到回到拜登时期的水平,”第三位欧洲官员说。“相反,我们希望看到政治立场的改变,采取一种不那么迁就的立场。”

“I don’t think anyone believes we will see a return to levels under Biden,” said a third European official. “Rather we hope for a change in the political position with a much less accommodating stance.”

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